Winter is around the corner. This is the time to plan and prepare for the upcoming season. As a farmer, you should master the art of estimating your yields. However, if you don’t have the knowledge, don’t worry. This article is going to take you through how to estimate your yields. In particular, you will learn about the mistakes you shouldn’t make when estimating your yields.
Wishful Thinking
Be realistic. Don’t overestimate your yields. Of course, you might be tempted to set attractive revenue numbers but that isn’t always a good decision. The best thing to do is to make your predictions based on real historical data. The best determinant of your future yields is your past performance. So, don’t make estimates based on your instincts or emotions.
Embracing Conservative Thinking
Most farmers calculate their yield estimates based on conservative thoughts. And this commonly results in suboptimal decisions. Plus, this strategy doesn’t allow you to make accurate plans, especially when it comes to inventory storage. Besides, you may not be able to execute your marketing strategy effectively.
Practicing Recency Bias
Research shows that most farmers don’t utilize their historical yield data when estimating the following year’s yield. Despite the fact that varieties and practices keep changing every year, it’s still important to take that data into consideration when making your forecasts. You want to capture the risk of all unusual events, right? Then be sure to look at all available data.
How to Make Accurate Corn Yield Forecasts
The yield forecast is an important aspect of growing corn. It will help you manage your expectations. In particular, you will be able to evaluate if the forecast matches your expectations. That’s why you should get it right. There are several ways of estimating the yield. Whichever method you choose, pay close attention to accuracy. Here are a few tips to help you get accurate forecasts. Use an easy corn calculator to estimate your yields.
Never Isolate the Weather
Consider the weather. There are so many vagaries of nature that can affect your yields. Just because you planted maize on your fields during the dry season doesn’t mean that it isn’t a good field. The only thing you need to do is to analyze the historical weather effects and take them into account when calculating your future yields.
Consider Quantifying the Yield Risk
Determine the risks of specific yield outcomes. This can be highly beneficial in helping you determine the long-term expectations. The Granular method, for instance, has been proven to be more accurate for predicting long-term expected yields.
This technique is based on machine learning models, as well as, satellite imagery technologies. And it’s specifically intended to help customers make informed farming decisions that drive profitability.
Think About Tillage Operations
Tillage operations should be undertaken after achieving the right soil conditions. Thus, consider avoiding working wet spoils. It’s also important to minimize secondary tillage. Secondary tillage operations should be performed after having an adequately prepared seedbed. Remember, shallow compaction—which is usually caused by secondary tillage—is a receipt for reduced crop yields. So, identify the compacted zone. From here, use deep tillage. However, this method should only be used in dry areas. Preferably, deep tillage should be done during late summer as well as fall.
Plant Early
Plant your corn at the right time. For instance, in Ohio, you should plant your corn by early May. However, if there are favorable conditions and the soil temperature is quickly rising, consider planting early.
Poor Soil Drainage
Don’t plant your corn on poorly drained soils. Also, plants are susceptible to ponding. This can muddy the seeds and interfere with yield production. Also, dry corn shouldn’t absorb cold water or melting snow. Also, cold water can injure the seedlings, especially when they germinate. This can lead to the rapturing of the cell membranes. Consequently, they will absorb radicles, proliferate the seminal roots, and derail the growth of the seedlings.
Your Ultimate Corn Yield Estimation Tips
If you want to plan well when planting your corn, start with estimating the corn yield. Still more, the estimation will help you with marketing and making pest control-related decisions. Still more, you will be able to plan and organize harvest equipment. That’s why you should always get it right with corn estimation. Here are top and tricks for estimating corn yield.
Understanding Crop Yield
Expressed as yield per a certain area, crop yield is used in agriculture as a standard measurement. It can be used to measure production for legumes, cereals, as well as grains. Tons, pounds, and bushes are used to measure yield levels.
Understand how crop yield works. Understand how to use popular estimation methods. Common estimation methods include corn ear-based weight, corn yield component, etc. Follow the following stages when estimating your corn yield.
Post Emergence
This step involves identifying issues that cause yield production as the plants grow. Thus, consider scouting your field from time to time. This can be done via aerial imagery or vend round-based scouting. From here, consider performing calculations and convert them to yield units. This can be done in bushes or per acre. Make assumptions like:
- How many kernels are in each ear?
- How many kernels are in each row?
- How may kernels be there in one acre or bushel?
Early During the Reproductive Stages
More accurate corn yield can be obtained as the planting seasons age. Pay close attention to the R1 growth stage. During this stage, the silk will start showing up. It will be visible outside of its husk. Here, consider taking plant population. From here, you can estimate the kernel per ear.
Yield Estimation in R4—R6
The dent growth stage, also known as R4, can produce a more accurate yield. The R6 is also known as physiological maturity. Use the yield estimation formula to get more accurate results during these two stages.
The Bottom-Line
The above are common mistakes farmers make when estimating their yields. These are the mistakes you should avoid if you want to correctly estimate your yields.
