Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2020 US Elections for a second term in the Oval Office may be higher than political betting markets would have it; thanks to the quirky electoral college voting system that is uniquely American.
At the start of the New Year, Trump was riding the momentum of his ‘America First’ presidency. After three years of his administration, the nation’s unemployment fell to the lowest rate in half a century; the economy added nearly 7 million jobs; stock prices hit record levels; household incomes grew; and paychecks were augmented by at least 2.5% after inflation, amongst other figures. [Source Factcheck.org]
Although his approval rating according to some polling surveys at the time hovered around 43%, meaning he had less than half of the nation’s support entering his fourth year in office, political experts nonetheless anticipated Trump’s chances to win a second term in office were still rather good. Potentially, even, replicating in a similar fashion the results of the 2016 US Elections, in which he won the electoral college vote but lost the popular vote to Hilary Clinton.
By the numbers in 2016, Trump won 306 electoral college votes (74 more than Clinton, who collected 232 votes) but he lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes (Clinton received 65.9 million votes to Trump’s 63 million votes.)
The strength of incumbency largely underscored Trump’s favorable re-election odds. The last three presidents of the United States served two terms in office – Barak Obama, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton. Moreover, since 1945, only three presidents failed to win a second term in office – Gerald Ford (1976), Jimmy Carter (1980), and George H.W. Bush (1992).
That’s three out of nineteen presidential terms over the course of the last 76 years that didn’t see an incumbent take office, In simple terms, that correlates to an almost 90% probability/winning ratio for Trump to hang his hat on.
Of course, the strength of the economy and, not least, surviving the impeachment trial in the Senate, also added to the likelihood Trump would win another four years in the Oval Office in November.
Political analyst Larry Sabato, prominent political cognoscenti and Editor in Chief of the Crystal Ball newsletter run by the University of Virginia Center for Politics was quoted by The Guardian in early January. With respect to Trump’s re-election, he said: “It is entirely possible that in 2020 we will once again see Republicans losing the popular vote and winning the electoral college, this time potentially by even greater margins.”
Of course, a lot has happened since the now sepia-toned month of January, during which life was still ‘normal.’ When people, industries, economies, and nations and what not all chugged along in harmony, as things have done for many, many years.
Fast-forward through the first five months of the year and we arrive to today, which can only be described as an extraordinary and unprecedented time because of a global pandemic that hit like a wrecking ball and has left the world still reeling senseless.
With businesses shuttering, industries grinding to a halt and lockdowns implemented in numerous states, more than 30 million Americans are now unemployed, the US economy is in the worst state it’s ever been in since the Great Depression. And there is still no clear end in sight for the public health crisis, not when the novel coronavirus is still ramping up across the country and claiming unspeakable lives.
It’s easy to forget amidst all this pandemic-induced uncertainty that the US Elections are just around the corner. Recent poll surveys show that while Trump’s handling of the coronavirus crisis isn’t receiving top marks it’s not sinking his popularity either. In fact, there’s been a slight boost.
Now, the boost is nowhere near the levels that other national leaders around the world have enjoyed, such as President Emanuel Macron in France or Angela Merkle in Germany. However, the incremental improvement suggests that Trump’s popularity among his supporters isn’t on the decline. If that trend holds true until November, it may bode well for his odds to win the 2020 US Elections after all.
