Africa, Headlines, Human Rights

POLITICS-ZIMBABWE: Hopes for a Move "From Opposition to Proposition"

Ephraim Nsingo

HARARE, Apr 3 2008 (IPS) - A leading commentator in Zimbabwe has sounded a note of caution – this after the country passed a political milestone that saw the opposition win control over the lower house of parliament in weekend elections.

This marks the first instance in which parliamentary power has passed to the opposition since Zimbabwe gained independence in 1980, and the question now is whether the presidency will follow suit.

Results announced in a trickle by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) over the past three days show that the larger faction of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), led by former unionist Morgan Tsvangirai, won 99 seats in the 210-seat lower house, while a splinter group of the movement gained 10; the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), the former ruling party, won 97 seats. An additional seat was captured by an independent, leaving three seats still to be contested.

"There is a temptation in the opposition to enter into endless celebration now. Others are already imagining themselves as ministers or holding important positions in government. This would be a big mistake for the MDC," said Brian Kagoro.

"We are on the verge of either a proper transition or a failed transition. The MDC should now take a conciliatory approach and work with everyone, including those who were opposed to them. Deciding to go it alone could be suicidal," he added.

"There is now an expectation for the opposition forces to move from opposition to proposition."

The snail-paced announcements by the ZEC sparked fears that the polls were being rigged to keep President Robert Mugabe and ZANU-PF in power.

"If the ZEC continues to delay in announcing the official election results…Zimbabweans…will have no option but to source the results from the parallel market," said Tendai Biti, general secretary of the larger MDC faction. A black market for foreign currency, fuel and the like has sprung up in the face of Zimbabwe&#39s economic decline, one of the key issues in the elections.

The polls had already been marred by efforts to tilt the outcome in favour of government, notably through intimidation of opposition supporters and rights activists, bias in the state media, tight controls over independent journalists, a suspect voters&#39 roll – and the manipulation of food aid to sway the vote amongst the approximately four million people estimated by the United Nations World Food Programme to be in need of supplies.

Millions more who had fled abroad to find work or escape political repression were disenfranchised, while election observers from countries critical of the Mugabe regime were not permitted to monitor the Mar. 29 elections – in which the presidency, House of Assembly, Senate and local government posts were contested.

Former information minister Jonathan Moyo was the only independent candidate to win a seat. Previously at the forefront of muzzling the press in a bid to entrench Mugabe&#39s rule, Moyo was in the business of political obituaries, Wednesday.

"ZANU-PF is now history. The total disintegration of the party has started – this time it&#39s the real disintegration. Only if they are gracious in this defeat will the people give them another chance," he told a press conference in the capital, Harare.

"The authorities are managing defeat, and they are not used to managing defeat," Moyo noted.

"In fact, this election is very difficult to rig. I would actually be tempted to say it is not &#39riggable&#39. Part of the reason for the delay is because there is anxiety in the security, especially those service chiefs who unwisely, or rather foolishly, told the whole world that they would not salute any other winner than Mugabe."

Based on results posted outside polling stations, MDC-Tsvangirai claims it has won the presidency with 50.3 percent of ballots. The contest for head of state must go to a run-off within three weeks if none of the candidates gains more than 50 percent of the vote.

The independent Zimbabwe Election Support Network has estimated Tsvangirai&#39s share of the vote at 49.4 percent against about 42 percent for Mugabe; the third contender of note, Simba Makoni, is believed to have seven percent of ballots.

Once a finance minister under Mugabe, Makoni was expelled from ZANU-PF after deciding to run for president, and may now prove a deciding factor in a run-off in terms of who he supports. MDC-Tsvangirai has said it will contest a run-off if the ZEC announces that its leader won less than the required number of votes.

An article in the state-run &#39Herald&#39 daily about a probable second round has deepened speculation that a run-off in looming, even though Mugabe had earlier been dismissive of such a possibility; reports in this newspaper are widely viewed as telegraphing the intentions of government.

Additional reports speak of talks between the MDC and officials to ease Mugabe out of office under a deal that would see him avoid prosecution for human rights abuses that have intensified over the past eight years as he clung to power. The opposition group has denied such negotiations are underway, saying discussion about the future hinges on how the ZEC calls the vote.

There is even talk of an averted military coup by security agents who have long backed the president, grown wealthy under his rule, and who are reluctant to have the legality of their assets scrutinised – as well as of a split amongst senior officers over continued support of Mugabe. Increased numbers of security forces, patrols and vehicle checks are reported in main urban centres.

Noted Moyo, who left government in 2005, "The right thing for the president in this situation is to withdraw. If he withdraws, he would have set a remarkable precedent…Mugabe and members of his party, ZANU-PF, should be gracious in defeat."

The Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, a grouping of civil society organisations, earlier this week petitioned the Southern African Development Community and the African Union to exert pressure on government to release the results.

"Of significant concern are unconfirmed reports that the incumbent president is preparing to declare a state of emergency after announcing inaccurate results. This is consistent with the threats made by the security chiefs before elections that they are not prepared to accept the election results if President Mugabe and ZANU-PF lose the elections," said the coalition&#39s MacDonald Lewanika.

George Charamba, Mugabe&#39s spokesman, told the press that the head of state – like other candidates – was eagerly awaiting the announcement of results.

"You talk to me as if you have already got the results of the election. As far as we are concerned, ZEC is yet to complete the announcement and unless that announcement is made, we will not comment about our plans," he said.

"You people have been writing lies that the president is in Malaysia when in fact he is in the country. I was with him at state house over lunch."