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ISRAEL: Advantage Netanyahu After Uncertain Poll

Analysis by Jerrold Kessel and Pierre Klochendler

JERUSALEM, Feb 10 2009 (IPS) - Israeli voters went into their polling booths Tuesday uncertain about the government they wanted to lead them over the next four years, only to emerge from their vote even more uncertain about their country’s future.

They delivered a surprise by narrowly preferring foreign minister Tzipi Livni over the right-wing former prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. The depth of the surprise was not, however, sufficient to give Livni’s centre-right Kadima party victory.

Instead, though finishing behind his rival, Netanyahu will almost certainly be Israel’s next prime minister. This, because of the overall serious shift of voters to the right that gives his Likud party, together with its allies, a narrow, but probably workable majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

“Let’s not lose sight of the fact that we on the right have increased our overall strength by 10-12 percent. That’s clearly the public mood,” said Moshe Ya’alon, former chief of staff and a potential candidate for defence minister should Netanyahu opt for a narrow far-right government.

The uncertain outcome of the election is likely to put on hold any potential efforts for a decisive re-launch of negotiations for a Palestinian-Israel and Arab-Israeli peace settlement – perhaps for an extended period. In an immediate comment, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat declared, “the Israeli people have opted for political paralysis.”

TV exit polls on all three major Israeli channels showed Kadima with a projected two-seat advantage (30-28 or 29-27) over Netanyahu’s Likud. The once vaunted Labour Party finished only fourth in the projections with 13 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, trailing the hard-line Israel Beiteinu party of Avigdor Liberman by at least two seats. In the past week polls had forecast up to 20 seats for the anti-Arab party; traditional Likud voters seem to have balked at the last minute and stayed with Netanyahu.

That was not enough, however. Netanyahu had begun the campaign in a commanding position, and remained the front-runner even after Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza; he seemed to be an absolute certainty to become the next prime minister. It still seems true and, in the end he will probably form the new coalition, though something of a disappointment to his followers.

The moment the results flashed onto TV screens once polls closed at 20.00 GMT, politicians and pundits busily began scrambling to shape possible new coalitions. “I will be Israel’s next prime minister,” declared Netanyahu. He appealed directly to the other components of the “national bloc” (all parties to the right of the Likud, and the Orthodox religious parties) to line up behind him even if Kadima has won more seats.

On paper, Netanyahu looks to be able to lead a narrow far-right majority. He is banking on the fact that the current advantage for the right-wing bloc over the centre-left (63-57 including nine projected seats for predominantly Arab parties) will be maintained and that will determine he gets the first crack at forming the new coalition.

Likud also hopes to gain a seat or two when the soldiers’ votes are factored in. Kadima diehards, on the other hand, say that the disappointment of Netanyahu’s showing “could well create a new political momentum” provided Kadima maintains its slender advantage when the final results come out. Livni said she was appealing to Netanyahu to join forces in a national unity government.

Even though it won far less seats than had been projected, Liberman’s Israel Beiteinu is an important pivot. His views are close to those of the Likud, but he has proven himself sufficient a maverick yet to surprise. Livni is banking on that again. It’s a slender thread.

Who is given the right to form the new coalition lies with Israel’s state president, Shimon Peres, who acts on the recommendation of the different parties. Ironically in the 1984 election, Peres faced a similar predicament when, as head of the Labour party, he had beaten the Likud. However, a majority of legislators recommended that the Likud leader (Yitzhak Shamir) be given first option to form a government.

The parties will make their recommendations to President Peres within a fortnight after the official results are declared. In the current state of flux, there are several alternative scenarios:

* Netanyahu manages to gather enough support to form a narrow based far- right government, without Kadima.

* Netanyahu broadens the appeal and offers to include both Kadima and Labour over and above his right-wing allies; but, he would be wary of surrendering the Likud majority within this kind of coalition.

* Much less likely is that Livni is preferred by Peres (because one or more of the right-wing parties declines to recommend Netanyahu) and she manages to form a broad coalition with Kadima at the centre, and including possibly the Likud, Labour and the religious parties.

* Still less possible is that Kadima and the Likud enter into a parity coalition with a rotating prime minister – as Labour and the Likud did twice in the past, in 1984 and 1988.

Whatever emerges from the political wrangling in the weeks ahead, and despite the surprisingly strong pro-Livni vote, there’s no mistaking the mood within the party most likely to be at the centre of power, the Likud: “There is an historic opportunity to reverse Israeli policies of recent years – of giving in and capitulating to terror,” said Benny Begin, a hard-line ideologue, son of the first Likud prime minister, Menachem Begin.

This is part of the re-emerging Likud dream of forceful government, holding on steadfastly to all settlements and no compromising with the Palestinians. Will Benjamin Netanyahu be hostage to that dream?