Environment, Headlines, Latin America & the Caribbean

JAMAICA: Hurricane Dampens Squeaker Election

Peter Ischyrion

KINGSTON, Aug 21 2007 (IPS) - When Hurricane Dean pounded Jamaica on Sunday, it not only damaged roads, uprooted trees, blew away the roofs of many buildings and killed at least three people, it also provided Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller with perhaps another week to convince voters that she is the best person to lead the country over the next five years.

Jamaicans awoke on Tuesday to learn that that the Electoral Commission of Jamaica had held an emergency meeting and recommended a postponement of the Aug. 27 general elections as a result of the devastation caused by the Category 4 hurricane.

Governor General Kenneth Hall is expected to announce the new date later on Tuesday after meeting with his “Privy Council”, but newspaper reports have already indicated that the polls will be held on Sep. 3.

Members of the security forces and electoral workers were to have cast their ballots on Aug. 21, but that is now likely to take place on Aug. 28.

Authorities imposed a curfew and month-long state of emergency in the aftermath of the storm, a move termed “ill-advised” by the main opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), which is seeking to prevent the ruling People’s National Party (PNP) from securing an unprecedented fifth straight term in office.

JLP leader Bruce Golding said the curfew and a provision to deploy the military were sufficient to deal with the possibility of looting.

“Our assessment in terms of problems with disruptions or damage caused by the hurricane or communities not getting supplies indicate that at this moment there is no justification,” added Delroy Chuck, the opposition spokesman on justice.

The media has also been critical of the decision, with the country’s oldest newspaper, the Gleaner, calling it excessive.

“The prime minister’s justification for taking this step is presented after the fact and is completely unconvincing. It is essential that this emergency comes to an end immediately,” the paper said in an editorial, adding that the security forces were clearly on top of the situation.

“There is nothing ‘likely to endanger the public safety or to deprive the community or any substantial portion of the community, of supplies or services essential to life’. No justification for prolonging the emergency beyond today exists. It must come to an end now,” the Gleaner said.

However, Prime Minister Simpson Miller told a post-Cabinet briefing on Monday that the issue of looting was only one of several dangers which were considered in making the decision to impose the state of emergency.

“People were imputing motives, my only motive was to ensure that the country would be protected and, in thick darkness across the country, how would I be able to guarantee safety of the people unless the security forces would be out there and be able to take action,” she told reporters.

The hurricane has, at least for the time being, placed a damper on campaigning for the general election. It has also provided a respite from the political violence in some constituencies that forced Political Ombudsman Bishop Herro Blair to summon representatives of both major parties to meetings aimed at diffusing the tension.

Blair had warned that the situation in constituencies where the outcome is very close, such as in the eastern parish of St. Thomas and the southern parish of St. Elizabeth, could get out of control, particularly as the candidates were accusing each other of strong arm tactics.

One clash between PNP and JLP supporters on Aug. 7 left several people with minor injuries after they were hit by bottles and stones.

While Simpson Miller started the campaign with a clear edge, the latest opinion polls indicate that the opposition Jamaica Labour Party has made inroads on the incumbent in the lead-up to the election.

A Gleaner poll last week put support for the JLP at 38 percent, and the PNP at 40 percent – a statistical dead heat.

The opposition party’s four-point gain from earlier polls may have been aided by the 90-minute debate between the prime minister and Golding earlier this month that political analysts said had been won by Golding.

Northern Caribbean University lecturer Charlene Sharpe-Pryce said that Golding spoke with confidence, knowledge and an understanding of the issues, and “came across as being very honest, sincere and committed”.

She assessed Simpson Miller’s performance as “fair”, but argued that Simpson Miller was short on facts. “She was not speaking with the sort of understanding of the complexity of the issues,” said Sharpe-Pryce.

In the last general election, the PNP secured an eight-seat majority, but opinion polls now suggest the possibility of a result that would be too close to call, reminiscent of the situation that occurred in neighbouring Trinidad and Tobago in 2001 when the two major parties each won 18 seats in the 36-member parliament.

In Jamaica, where there are 60 seats at stake, fears of a possible tie have not been lost on political observers and constitutional experts, some of whom have warned that “a tie would be a nightmare”.

Governor General Kenneth Hall has already indicated that he was “very clear in his mind on what to do in such an eventuality” and veteran writer on Caribbean affairs, Rickey Singh, noted that Hall would be aware of the situation that unfolded in Trinidad, where President ANR Robinson named then Opposition Leader Patrick Manning as prime minister instead of the incumbent Basdeo Panday.

“The question is will Jamaica’s election produce such a dilemma for Governor General Hall? He thinks not, but as of this weekend not even the pollsters are prepared to say with any certainty the likely outcome of the election,” Singh said.