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CLIMATE CHANGE: Small Islands Await Haitian-Type Disaster

Thalif Deen

UNITED NATIONS, Jan 19 2010 (IPS) - The devastation caused by the earthquake in Haiti last week has brought into sharp focus the threat of another natural disaster waiting to happen: a sea-level rise that could obliterate the world’s small island states, triggering fears of mass migration.

But contrary to initial reports, the Indian Ocean island of Maldives says it has no plans to relocate its 300,000 inhabitants or purchase land in neighbouring countries to re-settle Maldivians before the impending devastation.

“Maldives does not have a relocation plan and had at no time ever considered relocation to another country, either in the neighbourhood or any other area,” Ambassador Abdul Ghafoor Mohamed, the permanent representative of Maldives to the United Nations, told IPS.

Still, the Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS), which includes countries such as Fiji, Palau, Marshall Islands, Nauru and Tuvalu, have not ruled out the possibility of relocating before disaster strikes.

Ambassador Stuart Beck of Palau says that displacement to a neighbouring or third country “might be the only option if climate change continues at the current or increased rate without significant and urgent mitigation by the international community.”

As they struggle to cope with the monumental disaster that may have killed over 200,000 people, hundreds of Haitians have been trying to find shelter in neighbouring Dominican Republic.

Asked about this post-earthquake migration, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told reporters he is aware that the government of Dominican Republic “is trying to accommodate as many as possible, those people within the existing rules and regulations of their country, but they have been very generous.”

Soon after his election in the Maldives in October 2008, President Mohamed Nasheed proposed the creation of a sovereign fund to buy land to resettle his countrymen.

But his U.N. envoy points out that the president was only alluding to the seriousness of the situation for countries like the Maldives for whom the threats posed by sea level rise are in fact very real and imminent.

Since then, Nasheed has reiterated many times that the Maldives “neither wished for nor was planning relocation.”

“However, his statement on the setting up of the sovereign fund did have the desired effect of raising the awareness of the international community to the stark reality that the Maldives, along with many other small island countries, faced as they try to address the myriad of challenges posed by climate change,” Mohamed said.

The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) has predicted that in the worst case scenario, as many as 50 million to 350 million people may have to migrate from their island nations – if they are to survive a climate change disaster.

Ambassador Beck of Palau cites an analysis by the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees which says that while international law is not clear, some people forced to flee the effects of climate change may be protected by the 1951 U.N. Convention on the Status of Refugees, “whereas others may not qualify for protection.”

“There is little appetite for expanding the Refugee Convention to explicitly cover those displaced by climate change, given the fear that this risks lowering the protection currently afforded all refugees,” Beck argues.

There have been unconfirmed reports that countries such as Australia or New Zealand may consider providing sanctuary to inhabitants of neighbouring small island developing states (SIDS) – dubbed “environmental refugees” – fleeing sea-level rise.

But the Maldivian envoy told IPS he is not aware of any island nation that has signed an agreement with a larger neighbour or another country regarding relocation.

“Even if such an agreement is signed between an island nation and another host country, this itself will raise a number of issues regarding international law – sovereignty status, U.N. membership etc. etc.”

“Do these people relocate as a ‘nation’ or as individual refugees who are then subsumed into the host nation as their own citizens, or would they enjoy ‘sovereign rights’? Would they continue to have claim to the territory of the land they had vacated? If not, who would have claim on it, if at all?” he asked.

The fate of these disaster-prone small island states will be high on the agenda of two major upcoming international conferences mandated to draft a legally binding treaty on climate change: the first one in June in Germany and the second in November in Mexico.

Mark Jariabka, executive director of Islands First, an organisation that promotes and protects the interests of SIDS, told IPS that it is very likely that this issue will continue to be discussed at the two meetings.

“It is important that the recognition of SIDS as most vulnerable countries be preserved in a legally binding outcome and that these countries receive priority access to resources for urgent adaptation and mitigation projects,” he said.

Jariabka said the special vulnerability of SIDS was recognised in the December 2007 Bali Action Plan and was an important issue in last month’s Copenhagen negotiations, especially in the context of adaptation, access to financial resources, and capacity building.

There has been some debate at the negotiations regarding the question of what constitutes a ‘most vulnerable’ country, with some parties offering proposals that could dilute the significance of the distinction, he said.

“However, it is important to remember that SIDS are unique in that their very existence is threatened by climate change,” he added.

Even a modest rise in sea level, he said, could render countries like Tuvalu and Kiribati completely uninhabitable, though serious climate change impacts on food and water security are already being felt in SIDS.

Under the Copenhagen Accord, the most vulnerable countries, including SIDS, least developed countries (LDCs), and some African countries, are granted priority access to finance, Jariabka said.

Also, mitigation actions under the Accord are voluntary for SIDS and LDCs, he added.