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MIDEAST: Palestinians Threaten Unilateral Independent State

Mel Frykberg

RAMALLAH, Nov 17 2009 (IPS) - Following the political deadlock between the Israelis and Palestinians, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has decided to take the matter directly to the U.N. Security Council.

In an interview with IPS, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat denied media reports that the Palestinians were seeking to unilaterally declare an independent state.

“Actually, we’re not planning to declare our state unilaterally, as has been mistakenly reported,” Erekat told IPS Monday in Ramallah.

“What we intend to do is to take to the United Nations Security Council a request that the international community re-endorse the two-state solution based on the pre-Jun. 5, 1967 borders.”

On Sunday PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad addressed a press conference organised by the Saban Forum, a media institute established by American- Israeli media tycoon Haim Saban, in Ramallah.

Fayyad has been behind a plan to establish a viable Palestinian state in the future by building Palestinian institutions and winning international support for this.

“I know some people are concerned that this is unilateral. But it seems to me that it is unilateral in a healthy sense of self-development,” said Fayyad.

Fayyad’s plan is also intended to bypass Israel’s refusal to discuss a Palestinian state – let alone the borders of the future state – and Israel’s continued settlement building in the West Bank.

“Now is our defining moment. We went into this peace process in order to achieve a two-state solution,” he said. “The endgame is to tell the Israelis that now the international community has recognised the two-state solution on the ’67 borders,” stated Erekat.

The Israelis, however, reacted angrily accusing the PA of making a unilateral declaration for statehood. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to unilaterally annex parts of the West Bank in return.

“There is no substitute for negotiations between Israel and the PA and any unilateral path will only unravel the framework of agreements between us and will only bring unilateral steps from Israel’s side,” Netanyahu was quoted as saying in the Israeli daily Haaretz.

While Netanyahu’s right-wing partners expressed their outrage at the PA move some members of the more moderate Labour party, including Trade Minister Benjamin Ben Eliezer, threatened to leave the Israeli government if Netanyahu followed through on his threat to annex parts of the West Bank.

Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak further warned that Israel risked being alienated by the international community as the world lent its support to the Palestinian move.

However, both Palestinian and Israeli analysts explained the PA’s appeal to the UN was more a result of frustration with gridlocked peace talks and not, as the Israelis fear, a serious bid to declare an independent state just yet.

“The move by the Palestinians was more about putting pressure on the Israelis to recommit seriously to peace talks,” says Professor Moshe Ma’oz of Jerusalem’s Hebrew University. “It was also a move to win international sympathy for Palestinian frustration at Israeli obduracy as many believe the Israelis are the ones hindering further negotiations.”

“And on both counts the PA appears to have succeeded. The Europeans would most likely support the PA as would the Chinese and the Russians for starters,” Ma’oz told IPS.

“The U.N. General Assembly might also back the PA’s request to re-endorse the two-state solution. But the real litmus test would be the U.N. Security Council giving this their backing,” added Maoz.

The Palestinians have unilaterally declared independence before. The late Yasser Arafat, former chairman of the PA-affiliated Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), did so in 1988 during the first Palestinian Intifadah, or uprising – but the move was never practically implemented.

On May 4, 1999 – the deadline set by the 1993 Oslo Accords for the beginning of the final peace agreement – the Palestinians again declared independence. Then Israeli premier Netanyahu, in his first term as prime minister, managed to win international support against the move.

Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak was prime minister after the failed Camp David talks and the outbreak of the second Intifadah in 2000. He too threatened to annex parts of the West Bank when the Palestinians spoke about independence.

Despite growing international support for Palestinian independence Ma’oz explained that establishing an independent state in the near future would be difficult and impractical.

“There are over 500,000 Israeli settlers residing, and tens of thousands of Israeli soldiers stationed, in the West Bank which would physically prevent the establishment of a state,” Ma’oz told IPS.

The Americans stated Monday that they too supported the eventual establishment of a Palestinian state but via negotiations between the two sides.

But, the Americans may use the PA’s appeal to the U.N. to lean on the Israelis. The Israelis know that they have no choice but to deal with the current moderate Palestinian leadership.

Without Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Fayyad there are no negotiations. Without any peace negotiations there is no international support for the Palestinians and no funding.

No funding would mean the end of the PA – which relies heavily on international donations. Abbas’ threats to resign have already weakened a frail and unpopular PA.

No PA would mean the collapse of law and order and hundreds of thousands of unemployed Palestinians, especially amongst the PA’s institutions and security forces, which are dependent on the PA for their livelihoods.

Anarchy and chaos could fill this vacuum. Somalia style.