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ENVIRONMENT: China’s Climate Change Plan: The Debate Goes On

Antoaneta Bezlova

BEIJING, Nov 6 2009 (IPS) - For China choosing to act on climate change is not simply agreeing to effect changes in the way its robust economy is being run. Chinese leaders have to choose between two equally unattractive options—put the brakes on growth to choke off pollution and face an array of scary scenarios, from unemployment swell to social unrest.

The alternative, though, is to continue with their rapid economic expansion at the risk of achieving a result that defeats its purpose.

With four weeks to go before the world gathers in Copenhagen to try to forge a new climate pact, the debate in China over where its priorities lie continues unabated.

To the world Beijing has insisted that it is still a developing country and should not be asked to make any promises that will hinder its efforts to lift more than 200 million people out of poverty. But at home government leaders have come under scrutiny for supporting rapid economic expansion that creates environmental degradation and ultimately perpetuates poverty.

One academic lobby argues that any action China takes on combating climate change has to be pegged to its national conditions.

In a report released in September, the Institute of Environmental Economics at Renmin University projected that implementing strict carbon emission reduction targets will cost seven percent of China’s gross domestic product in 2050. But if Beijing wrangles a deal that allows it to tailor targets to its economic needs, the cost will be only 2.3 percent of its GDP in 2050.

This argument favours less commitment by Beijing, if any at all, at Copenhagen in order to reduce the great social and economic cost needed to be paid for mitigating climate change.

But all such savings will be self-defeating, insists another academic group. Climate change is already among the biggest factors in creating or perpetuating poverty in China, they say.

In both papers and public comments, the green lobby led by prominent economist Hu Angang has called on the Chinese government to make serious efforts to cut greenhouse emissions that contribute to global warming.

"Environmental degradation, drought and increased disaster risk and incidence mean that in the future we will have to deal with more and more people falling back into poverty," a report from Greenpeace and aid group Oxfam said in the summer.

Hu Angang, a public policy professor at Beijing Tsinghua University, says China is the biggest victim of climate change. In recent years, China has seen more droughts, storms, floods and rising seas, the combination of which is exacerbating its fight to lift millions out of poverty.

In the report by Oxfam and Greenpeace that Hu Angang oversaw, academics and campaigners argue that increased spending on cutting emissions and climate change mitigation would be at least partially offset by savings on disaster relief and reconstruction.

"It is irrational to speak of China’s national conditions when arguing that we should not take action on climate change. Fighting climate change is at the core of China’s national interests," Hu says.

The Fourth Assessment of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change released in February 2007 underscored China’s vulnerability to global warming. A significant number of Chinese academics took part as co-authors of the document, raising the profile of its findings at home.

The study suggested climate change would exacerbate droughts in the arid north and west of the country, and aggravate flooding in the wet south and east. Pointing out that land absorbed less water during floods than during steady rainfall, academics predicted that both developments would worsen China’s already grave water shortage and topsoil erosion problems.

The increased incidence of drought and floods in the years since has galvanised public opinion in favour of pro-active measures on climate change.

Pressure at home has been compounded by international scrutiny of Beijing’s actions on the global warming front. Heavily dependent on coal to propel its economy, China has overtaken the United States as the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.

Chinese diplomats argue the developing world should not submit to international caps on emissions while it grows out of poverty. Beijing says it is the industrialised states that need to take the lead in cutting greenhouse gases and offer technology and capital to developing countries to help them cope with global warming.

But many in the West, particularly the United States, fear that allowing China room to grow its economy with no obligations on climate mitigation could give Beijing an unfair economic edge.

The U.S., which is the only developed country outside the existing Kyoto Protocol for curbing emissions—an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change—has said it may consider the use of border tariffs if it felt that foreign exporters were getting an unfair advantage once carbon curbs have pushed up U.S. costs.

Instead of committing to caps on emissions, China has designed measures that it says suit its national conditions such as efficiency targets for industry, renewable energy targets and taxes on energy-intensive exports.

"They (the Chinese) are doing pretty well," Jonathan Pershing, head of the U.S. delegation at the U.N. climate talks in Barcelona [which opened on Monday], was quoted as saying this week. "But they haven’t yet made the formal statement to have those reviewed by an international process. For us that is a huge part of this discussion."