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AFGHANISTAN: NATO Members in Waiting Mode

Analysis by Pavol Stracansky

BRATISLAVA, Oct 25 2009 (IPS) - Corruption, doubts over Afghan leadership, and faltering public support have emerged as the main stumbling blocks to a demand for more NATO troops in Afghanistan.

North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) secretary-general Anders Fogh Rasmussen had wanted NATO defence ministers meeting in Bratislava Thursday and Friday this week to agree to raise troop numbers in Afghanistan. The U.S. and NATO troops commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, has asked for 40,000 more troops.

Rasmussen made energetic appeals to NATO states to endorse the general’s plan, which also calls for a shift in strategy to do more to protect the Afghan population, and to train local forces and police.

At the end of the meeting Rasmussen said defence ministers had given their broad support for the McChrystal report. But it was clear that there would be no commitment from most European countries to send more troops while doubts remain over Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s regime.

“The plan for NATO is to get the central government to take control of the country and get institutions up and functioning and then leave,” Tomas Valasek, director of foreign policy and defence at the Centre for European Reform in London told IPS.

“But the problem is that the government for whom the western powers are doing all this is increasingly seen by ordinary Afghans as more and more incompetent, and Karzai is bringing in former warlords into his government while people complain of widespread corruption.

“It makes no difference how many troops NATO sends in – it could send in ten soldiers for every Afghan – if the government does not have the backing of the people. As soon as the troops left it would all fall apart.”

There are 65,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan and a further 39,000 from allied states. More than 1,000 allied troops have been killed in Afghanistan since the start of military operations in 2001.

Gen McChrystal’s report calls for priority for protecting Afghan civilians ahead of killing insurgents. The United Nations has reported 1,013 civilian deaths in the first six months of 2009, a rise from 818 over the corresponding period last year. The UN says NATO troops or Afghan forces were responsible for 30.5 percent of the deaths.

The White House has been mulling over Gen McChrystal’s request since late August, and experts say the call for more troops at a time of rising allied casualties has exposed divisions among NATO member states.

Public opinion in much of Europe is now against the war. Experts say it is hard for governments to persuade voters to support sending more troops to help a regime in Kabul which is increasingly seen as corrupt. The alleged fraud in recent presidential elections and accusations that Karzai’s government has turned a blind eye to drug-running will have done little to change that view.

While the UK has pledged more soldiers, France has said it will not send any more troops. Senior figures at the Bratislava conference told IPS that they believe German officials have privately told U.S. leaders they will not send any more soldiers either.

German defence minister Franz Josef Jung said at the Bratislava meeting that there would definitely be no increase in German troop levels until after a planned NATO conference on Afghanistan expected early next year.

Officials from the Netherlands and Denmark said they would not send more troops until a legitimate government is formed in Afghanistan after a re-run presidential election next month.

Some analysts say it is uncertain that any agreement from European allies on raising troop commitments will be reached. “It needs a consensus, and that will not happen on this issue with so many members,” Ivo Samson, defence analyst with the group Slovak Foreign Policy told IPS.

Denmark’s defence minister Soeren Gade told media at the Bratislava meeting that if and when NATO allies send more troops, they are likely to make it contingent on the Afghan leadership making clear commitments to dealing with problems in the country. “We have to make sure the new government in Afghanistan is committed to its job before we send any more troops to Afghanistan,” he said.

Analysts say NATO is now facing a crucial decision on Afghanistan after the re-run presidential elections early next month.

Valasek told IPS: “The White House is carrying out a review of its Afghanistan strategy, and other NATO members are waiting to see what the U.S., the largest troop contributor in Afghanistan, is planning to do. Until then they cannot really do anything.”