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POLITICS-JAPAN: Voters Sceptical of Change in Run-up to Election

Catherine Makino

TOKYO, Aug 24 2009 (IPS) - The Aug 30 elections in Japan will be the most important in a generation, signifying many voters’ dissatisfaction with the current political status quo under the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

The LDP has held power almost continuously for more than half a century and its fate is at stake. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is poised to win a decisive victory that will likely make it the ruling party, polls show.

The current magic buzzword is "change" and an anti-incumbency sentiment is also growing. The voters are sniffing blood, making it a real possibility that many LDP heavyweights might be ousted from office.

"Much like the 2008 U.S. presidential elections, the Japanese elections are about change," said Weston Konishi, adjunct fellow at the Washington-based Mansfield Foundation, which seeks to promote understanding and cooperation between Asia and the United States. "If the DPJ comes to power and is able to implant many of its reform proposals, it could have the potential to lift the country out of its prolonged period of social and economic malaise."

However, Jeffrey Kingston, Japan expert at Temple University’s Japan Campus, says there are mixed feelings about the elections and whether the DPJ can deliver real change.

There are concerns, for instance, that the DPJ’s proposed spending plans will considerably worsen the nation’s public debt-to-GDP ratio of nearly 200 percent, he says. He adds that the party’s proposal to eliminate highway tolls "will harm regional fiscal problems" and increase pollution, "raising questions about how it intends to achieve its ambitious goals of cutting carbon emissions".

"The ruling LDP looks like dead-enders with no vision or fresh ideas to meet Japan’s serious problems, ranging from the current economic despair to social welfare, pensions and aging," he says. "That’s why they will get a resounding ‘sayonara’ [Japanese word for ‘goodbye’] on Election Day. The DPJ will win, not because of its manifesto of promises but because it is not the LDP."

The public has not warmed either to Yukio Hatoyama, the leader of the DPJ and candidate for prime minister of Japan. Only one-third of the people support him as the next leader, says Kingston. "To me that is surprising and shows how sceptical the people have become, for very good reasons, of the ruling political elite," says Kingston.

Hatoyama has to restore the credibility of the government and rebuild trust among the people, notes Kingston. He also has to mitigate the consequences of the soaring misery index and do all of this while inheriting a sick economy.

To many observers, Hatoyama will have a lot to prove and the DPJ will be under close scrutiny. There are widespread doubts that the party can hit the ground running and wrest power over policymaking from the bureaucracy, as it promises.

Hiromi Kobayashi, an English translator with two sons in university, agrees with most of the nation that it needs change, but says everyone realises that the DPJ will probably fail.

"If you study Japanese history, you will know that Japan takes forever to change, but when it does, it changes with a degree and speed that is quite mind-boggling," she says. "There is almost no real debate among the populace because people do not discuss these things with each other, in spite of the raucous and opinioned arguments on television. We tend to mull things over ourselves, in private."

The Japanese realise they can’t improve things unless there is a huge shake-up, and dismissal of people who are too set in their ways to even comprehend change.

"Japanese people hate risk and will only take risk when there’s no other way – and I think everyone feels now that there is no other way," Kobayashi says.

LDP politicians have been given ample opportunities to change things, but they have proven to be incapable, some voters say. It is not because they are incompetent but because they are limited as a result of the way they have been raised as politicians, says Kobayashi.

"Watching credentialed politician after politician struggle, I find myself thinking that whether you take the best peaches in the world or the lowliest peaches from the wild, if you place them in a sunny place for a long time, they’ll both rot," she explains.

"I think that people feel that the DPJ might be better because they won’t be allowed to sit in the sun," she says.

People will be freer to criticise the DPJ in a way that they could not the LDP because of their influence and power. According to Kobayashi, many Japanese voters form opinions based on the influence of major media sources.

In fact, the media have played a big part in influencing the average person. They have unabashedly exhibited their bias in favour of the opposition. Even NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corp), a state network, has made it customary to show Prime Minister Taro Aso lashing out one or two phrases, followed by a calmer-looking and rational-sounding Hatoyama.

As a result of media hype, a number of polls has indicated that voter turn-out in the upcoming elections will be among the highest ever.

Shinji Yoshida, a 28-year-old car dealer, says he will vote for the DPJ since Japan needs to make a change for its future. "The problem is that the DPJ will not be able to make changes, because they don’t have the infrastructure or the money to do it. The DPJ has proven to be a threat, which will force the LDP to make changes in the future."

He adds the upcoming electoral exercise is different from the 2005 election because politicians are using new ways such as the microblogging site Twitter and blogs to connect with the voters.

However, Japan’s Cabinet has banned candidates from using these tools for campaigning in elections. They cannot post or update political messages on their homepages, launch or amend blogs, or text messages to mobile phones. Podcasts are allowed because the law applies only to text or images.

In short, this election has raised expectations and faces enormous challenges after this political exercise. The jury is still out on whether it can deliver change people can believe in.

 
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