Civil Society, Headlines, Latin America & the Caribbean

VENEZUELA: Chavez – A Referendum of His Very Own

Humberto Márquez

CARACAS, Feb 15 2009 (IPS) - After a decade in office, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez goes to the country on Sunday in another attempt to change the constitution so that he can stand for reelection "for at least another 10 years".

If he wins, as predicted by a number of opinion polls and the rolling out of an electoral machine vastly superior to that of his opponents, his left-leaning government will be strengthened. If he fails, a possibility that is not ruled out by analysts, he will have to trim his sails and start looking for a political heir for the 2012 elections.

Some 16.8 million Venezuelans are eligible to vote for or against the proposed amendment to the 1999 constitution, instigated by Chávez himself, which eliminates restrictions on the number of terms candidates may serve, so that the president, lawmakers, governors and mayors may run for office as many times as they like.

"I am ready to govern with you for these four years (the remainder of his current six-year term) and the next six, until 2019," Chávez said on Thursday before tens of thousands of his supporters in Caracas, at the final rally of his political campaign.

"On Sunday my political fate will be decided, and I will stand to attention like a soldier waiting for your orders," he said.

Determined to reinvent his "Bolivarian Revolution" in a socialist key, in 2007 Chávez proposed a wide-ranging reform of the constitution that included permission for presidential reelection.

He seized the opportunity presented by his victory in the December 2006 elections, when 7.3 million voters elected him for another term, compared with only 4.3 million ballots for his main rival, Manuel Rosales. But the 2007 constitutional reform failed.

The long campaign leading up to that referendum, when Chávez's attention was taken up by international issues, and above all the closing of the RCTV television channel, which was often critical of the government, provoked a vigorous student protest movement and the abstention of three million of his supporters.

The constitutional reform package was rejected by 51 percent of voters.

As soon as the results were known in the November 2008 regional elections, in which his supporters won 53 percent of the vote, Chávez took a short cut via the country's parliament, where 155 out of the total of 167 lawmakers support him, and this time proposed an amendment only of the section on reelection of elected officials.

After two days of debate, parliament approved the proposal and the National Electoral Council, an autonomous branch of government with a majority of government supporters, set the referendum date for Feb. 15, on the same day it received the text. This left only four weeks for campaigning.

"In late 2008, those opposed to indefinite reelection had a lead of 20 percentage points over those in favour, but according to our measurements that lead has dropped to only five points," Oscar Schémel, head of the Hinterlaces polling firm, told IPS. "That small advantage appeared to firm up during February, so the No vote is in with a chance," he added.

Other pollsters like Datanálisis, relied on by the opposition, reported a majority of voter intentions against the amendment in December, but its most recent survey in late January indicated that Yes votes were in the lead by 52 to 48 percent of interviewees.

"The state apparatus was in full swing. President Chávez made 46 nationwide broadcasts on radio and television in the space of two months, and his party faithful went canvassing house to house, sowing dread among the Venezuelan population by saying that if Chávez loses, chaos will reign," Luis Vicente León, the head of Datanálisis, told IPS.

In contrast to León's account, the head of the governing United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), Vanessa Davies, told journalists that party members have indeed been going "house to house, but have received enthusiastic support." "Many people say, 'we have this or that problem, but you can count on us to vote Yes,'" she said.

Chávez and his inner circle mounted their campaign like a blitzkrieg, wasting no time and leaving the opposition far behind in matters of organisation, fund-raising and strategy.

The timing of the snap referendum gave the opposition no opportunity to capitalise on mistakes or unpopular measures the government may have to impose to survive the global economic crisis. The country has barely been given the time or the opportunity to debate the reelection proposal.

State entities like the giant Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) consortium, the Caracas Metro (underground and bus system), the tax office and the electricity company undertook propaganda campaigns in support of the Yes vote. The electoral authority rebuked them only when the end of the campaign was hours away.

Foreign correspondents could see how even in remote villages in the east or west of the country, posters, pennants, stickers and even the T-shirts worn by street cleaners displayed updated slogans for the Yes vote, indicating that the pro-Chávez electoral message was spread promptly and swiftly by highly efficient official machinery.

The opposition resorted to press advertisements, since most newspapers are critical of the government, and to a television news channel and their modest party machines. In the vanguard were thousands of students from some 20 universities who took to the streets to demonstrate and hand out leaflets, with a passion comparable to that of 2007.

"No es no," (No means No, referring to the previous rejection of constitutional reform in 2007) on the one hand, and "Uh, ah, Chávez sí va" or its variant, "Uh, ah, la enmienda sí va" (roughly, Oh, yes, Chávez will go ahead, or Oh, yes, the amendment will pass) on the other, have been the main competing slogans in this hasty campaign.

Astonishingly, the 73-word question that will appear on the screens of the computerised voting machines does not even mention the word "reelection".

"Do you approve the amendment… of the Constitution of the Republic… to increase the political rights of the people by allowing any citizen holding elected office to be nominated as candidate for the same office, … pending his or her possible election exclusively by popular vote?" it asks.

The amendment covers any official elected by the people, but there is no doubt in anyone's mind that its central purpose is to fulfil Chávez's own aspirations. "Whatever 'El Comandante' says, we will support him. We trust him, although we dislike some of the people surrounding him," Manuel Estévez, an employee at a hardware store in the centre of Caracas, told IPS.

"Chávez is indispensable to the interests of the people at this historic moment in our country. The people identify him with the whole political project that is at stake in this referendum. It is the transformation of society, and it depends on one man," said Aristóbulo Istúriz, one of the vice presidents of the PSUV.

On the opposition side, former socialist leader Teodoro Petkoff said that "it is not good for democracy that presidents should be able to perpetuate themselves in power."

"The exercise of leadership, especially in countries with fragile democracies and a tradition of "caudillismo" (charismatic strongmen in power), gives them obvious electoral advantages that, as (Venezuelan Liberator) Simón Bolívar said, could usher in usurpation and tyranny," he said.

Sociologist Edgardo Lander, a professor at the Central University and for years a Chávez sympathiser, said that the president has "managed to give a voice and a direction to the discontent that existed in Venezuela, but in order to build a more democratic society we now have to go beyond that leadership."

"A process of (social) transformation cannot depend on one person alone. That is a sign of weakness, not strength," Lander said.

Furthermore, in his view, "at bottom what is at stake is the idea Chávez and his entourage have that without him as their candidate they might lose the elections (in 2012), while the opposition is concerned that the pro-Chávez movement, with the president as its candidate, might win those elections. That is the problem. The rest is secondary."

An exultant Chávez said Thursday that he would win "by a knockout," and called on his followers to celebrate Sunday night in front of the seat of government.

For the opposition, Leopoldo López, the popular former mayor of a Caracas municipality, whom analysts say has presidential aspirations, said that "the result will be very close and the No vote has a chance, if we overcome abstentionism."

Finally, on the disparities between polls – two of the most reputable predict victory for the Yes vote, and others say the Nos are ahead, although the differences are within the margin of statistical error – political scientist John Magdaleno told IPS, "although I have never supported the notion of a 'hidden vote,' perhaps for the first time it will come out and surprise us all."