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POLITICS: Election Could Herald Changes in U.S. Cuba Policy

WASHINGTON, Sep 15 2008 (IPS) - Cuba policy spokesmen for the two presidential candidates jousted and sniped at a colloquium in Washington last Friday, offering a choice between further hardening of current policies and some hope for a new vision for U.S. Cuba policy.

Dan Restrepo, representing the Barack Obama campaign, and Adolfo Franco, speaking for John McCain, addressed a crowd of long-time Cuba hands at the Inter-American Dialogue (IAD), a Washington-based think tank focusing on Latin America and U.S.-Latin relations.

“The new U.S. president will be the first in five decades not to face Fidel Castro,” noted moderator Dan Erickson of the IAD, adding that after all this time, the U.S. still faces the burning question: “What will happen in Cuba over the long run?”

Both presidential candidates share the key objective of supporting Cuban steps toward democracy, but they have sharply different strategies for achieving this goal.

Obama, the Democratic nominee, would adjust some of the Cuba policies of the George W. Bush administration, said Restrepo, such as severe restrictions on family visits and remittances to Cuba that have proven quite unpopular among Cuban-Americans.

Obama believes that reversing the Bush policies would give those in Cubans more “space” from the regime, according to Restrepo.

Far more controversial, Obama would then challenge Cuba’s leadership to free all political prisoners, in return for opening official talks with Washington and consideration of an end to U.S. sanctions, Restrepo said. . “We cannot continue to do more of the same and expect a new result,” the Obama spokesman repeated frequently, referring to Washington’s long-held belief that isolation is the best policy toward Cuba – reflected by its 46-year-old unilateral trade embargo.

Speaking for John McCain, who is running on the Republican ticket, Adolfo Franco presented a Cuba policy virtually identical to that of the Bush administration.

Over the years, Franco said, “McCain has held a consistent position on Cuba,” which is that “Cuba is a pariah state that should not be rewarded until it has shown a demonstrable commitment to democracy.”

According to Franco, McCain would increase “material assistance” to Cuban dissidents and “maintain the pressure” on Cuba’s government.

To “reward” Cuba would be a “colossal mistake,” he reiterated, presumably referring to the possibility of opening diplomatic channels.

Kirby Jones, an entrepreneur with extensive contacts on both sides of the U.S.-Cuba divide, bluntly told Franco: “Nothing you say is going to work.”

The Obama plan, Jones warned, is flawed if freeing political prisoners is presented as a precondition for talks. Jones pointed out that the strategy of setting preconditions for diplomatic talks has proven ineffective in other settings.

Former U.S. envoy to Cuba Wayne Smith urged that a new administration place priority on improving relations with Latin America as a whole, and suggested that talking to Cuba would be a good starting point.

He also urged an end to the 1966 Cuban Adjustment Act, which provides Cubans who land in Miami with economic assistance and a path to citizenship unavailable to migrants from other nations.

“Why is this legislation still on the books?” Smith asked, since circumstances have changed and its elimination would remove much of the incentive for Cuban migration – a sore point for both Washington and Havana.

Other speakers at the session discussed the challenge to Cuban-American Republican incumbents in Miami, in particular Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart, who represent traditional hard-line Cuban-American views on Cuba.

Lincoln Diaz-Balart, in particular, is widely believed to have a strong influence on President Bush’s policy towards Cuba.

David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report predicted that the contest for Miami’s 21st district, in the hands of Lincoln Diaz-Balart for the last 16 years but now under challenge from former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez, will be the “ugliest contest in the country”.

Democrats, he said, are betting that the districts represented by the Diaz-Balart brothers have diversified enough that simply running on an anti-Castro platform will not be enough.

David Rieff, author of a recent New York Times Magazine article entitled “Will Little Havana Go Blue?” and other studies of Cuban exiles, agreed.

The influx of other Latin Americans and the large number of younger Cubans who do not harbour the same levels of hostility toward Cuba as their elders could mean that the election in the two Florida districts will focus on the same social and economic issues as in the rest of the country, rather than on Cuba policy, according to the two panelists.

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, another representative of Miami’s Cuban community in Congress, is also facing competition but remains well ahead of her challenger, Democrat Annette Tadeo, in Miami’s 18th District, according to Wasserman and Rieff.