CAUCASUS: THE POWDER KEG

By Johan Galtung Reprint | | Print |

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ALFAZ, SPAIN, Aug 13 2008 (IPS) - The Caucasus is today a major theatre of the Cold War II, which involves the long-term encirclement of Russia-India-China in order to control Eurasia through the eastward expansion of NATO and the westward expansion of AMPO, the US-Japan security system, writes Johan Galtung, a Professor of Peace Studies and founder of TRANSCEND, a peace and development network, and author of \”50 Years: 100 Peace and Conflict Perspectives,\” TRANSCEND University Press, 2008. In this article, Galtung writes that the US is pressing for Georgian membership in NATO, thereby coming even closer to the Russian heartland. This idea was rejected at the latest NATO meeting this spring, but not in principle. The Red Army functioned as the lid on the cauldron of the Soviet Union, and when it was removed, it boiled over. Georgia is the same. With the lid gone, Abkhasia and South Ossetia (and the Muslim Ajar) seceded. The most viable option may be a Caucasian Community, comprised of the four entities. Peace in the Caucasus implies disinviting the big powers and engaging in integrative Caucasian policies. The present policies lead away from peace. A Georgian government trying to gain popular support by reclaiming \”lost\” territories, hoping for some kind of US support, has already aggravated the situation – possibly leading to a major confrontation. Some statesmanship, please.

Nothing of the kind was implemented, leading to the same prognosis today as years ago: Big Men with Big Clans will make Big Deals with Big Powers. Oil and cash will flow, building a corrupt class of the newly rich. The people will not be consulted. Only the power of arms and money, not nations, will be respected.

Geography has situated the Caucasus with Russia to the North, Turkey to the West, Iran to the South, and the US everywhere. The US has now arrived in Georgia and Azerbaijan, after waiting eagerly, and Russia has arrived in Abkhasia and Armenia.

The Caucasus is today a major theatre of the Cold War II, which involves the long-term encirclement of Russia-India-China (40 percent of humanity) in order to control Eurasia (the “world island” in MacKinder’s century-old geopolitics) through the eastward expansion of NATO and the westward expansion of AMPO, the US-Japan security system (with South Korea and Taiwan as de facto members). Moreover, the US is pressing for Georgian membership in NATO -and for Ukraine- thereby coming even closer to the Russian heartland. This idea was rejected at the latest NATO meeting this spring in a fit of sanity among other members, though not in principle. The situation was simply not yet ripe.

Regime change in China is No. 7 of ten geopolitical goals in the Project for a New American Century, still a major guide to US foreign policy, and is the key underlying issue. In addition to the two Caucasian countries, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan have also been given military roles, on the surface claimed to be in connection with Afghanistan and generally with the “war on terrorism”. Short-term goals have been accepted by mediocre leaders at the risk of transforming their region into a major war zone in the future in the struggle for power in Central Asia.

In short, the Caucasus could be a major war zone should Cold War II become hot -not as a direct, Washington-Moscow confrontation, but in the form of proxy wars, as during Cold War I. To mobilise the two sides, the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) territorial conflict has to be kept alive as an unsolved issue. One possibility is an invasion of NK by Azerbaijan when oil revenues have made the latter rich enough to override the outcome of the last war, feeding an endless chain of revenge and redistribution. As international (read: interstate) wars favour territorial integrity over national self-determination, protests will be few.

Georgia, now erupting, is a case in point. The Red Army functioned as the lid on the cauldron of the Soviet Union, and when it was removed, it boiled over. Georgia is the same. With the lid gone, Abkhasia and South Ossetia (and the Muslim Ajar) seceded, refusing to be controlled politically and invaded culturally and economically by Tbilisi. They are much closer to Russia, which does not necessarily mean they really want to become a part of that giant country. On the other hand, their desire for self-determination does not point to any reintegration with Georgia.

But this is a game for giants; people do not count much.

What are the possible solutions? The notion of Georgia as a unitary country has no chance, except as nationalist propaganda. As a federation the prospects would be somewhat better. The most viable option may be a Caucasian Community, comprised of the four entities.

Something similar applies to the even more difficult Nagorno- Karabakh conflict. Any peace must respect the Armenian right of self-determination, and equality of the parties. Swapping Armenian human rights in NK for the flow of oil may seem like a clever solution for the two states. But “peace” at the expense of the basic need to be ruled by one’s own kind is a time bomb waiting to explode. Preserving the status quo is unjust to the peoples concerned, and dangerous. Dividing NK will make the parts non-viable and unstable.

Viable options might include:

-NK as an independent state, bound to protect its minorities;

-Joint Azerbaijan-Armenian rule, possibly rotating;

-An Azerbaijan/NK/Armenia confederation or even federation;

-The Caucasus as confederation or even federation, with NK as a part;

-European Union membership for all as a de facto federation.

Peace in the Caucasus implies disinviting the big powers and engaging in integrative Caucasian policies. The present policies lead away from peace. A Georgian government trying to gain popular support by reclaiming “lost” territories, hoping for some kind of US support, has already aggravated the situation -possibly leading to a major confrontation. Some statesmanship, please. (END/COPYRIGHT IPS)