Africa, Civil Society, Headlines

POLITICS-ZIMBABWE: Transition Not Yet Taking Shape

Ephraim Nsingo

HARARE, Jul 19 2008 (IPS) - There is a general consensus in Zimbabwe that the only way out of the current crisis is dialogue between the two main political parties, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and the Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front (ZANU PF).

But there appear to be vast differences over what that dialogue should lead to. Some believe the dialogue should lead to a Kenya-style government of national unity (GNU) involving ZANU PF and the two MDC formations – one led by Morgan Tsvangirai and the other by Arthur Mutambara. Others argue the negotiations should lead to the writing of a new constitution, which and eventually to fresh elections.

However, substantive talks between the parties have not resumed as the two parties have each submitted a list of pre-conditions. The MDC has demanded an end to the ongoing violence in areas such as Manicaland, where villagers are being victimised for supporting the opposition. The party has also proposed that all engagements be on the basis of Tsvangirai's performance in presidential poll of March 29. On its part, Zanu PF insists that the MDC should recognise Mugabe as the duly elected leader of Zimbabwe.

On July 15, over 200 leaders of civil society organisations met in the capital, Harare, and agreed that there was need for a transitional leadership for Zimbabwe. The civil society organisations, led by constitutional reform activist and lawyer, Lovemore Madhuku, said the transitional government should be led by a neutral person.

"Individuals from a broad sector of Zimbabwean society should be incorporated into the transitional government. This should include representatives from labour organisations, women’s and children's rights groups, churches and various interests groups," said Madhuku.

In a later interview with IPS, Madhuku said a power-sharing agreement between Zanu PF and the two MDC formations "fails to immediately address the inadequacy of the current constitutional regime."

"We believe the best alternative is to have a transitional authority led by a person who is not a member of ZANU PF or the MDC. At the moment, I do not have a name in mind, but there are certainly many Zimbabweans who have such credentials. This is not a permanent arrangement, a transition is just for a specific time frame and has a specific mandate, to lead us to fresh elections under a new, people-driven, democratic constitution," said Madhuku.

This proposal was however rejected by MDC spokesperson, Nelson Chamisa, who said civil society leaders "are not being realistic."

Said Chamisa: "President Tsvangirai won the presidential elections, based on the March 29 results. For all intents and purposes, he should lead any transitional arrangement. Why would they need a neutral person, who was not voted for by the people, to be in charge, when facts are that the people of Zimbabwe made a choice on March 29 in a legitimate election?"

Chamisa received the backing of Clever Bere, leader of the Zimbabwe National Students Union. "With all due respect, Tsvangirai should lead whatever arrangement is there, or else there is disengagement. He won the last credible election held on March 29," he said.

But Madhuku accused the MDC, which has in the past received serious backing from civil society, of taking people for granted by not making their agenda clear.

"Even as they go into those negotiations, it is still not clear what they want. They agenda is not clear at all. MDC came at a time when people were frustrated thus they managed to gain massive support without much effort. They never learnt how to gain respect from the people, that is why many politicians in the MDC are reckless in the way they deal with certain issues."

The former Minister of Information, Jonathan Moyo believes "there is no way forward for Zimbabwe outside a GNU."

"The major reason that makes negotiations on a GNU necessary is because there is no single party in the House of Assembly that has the required minimum number of seats to either control Parliament or form a government… What remains to be seen is who will be what in the government of national unity," said Moyo.

In terms of the Zimbabwean Constitution, a party should have at least two thirds of the 210 seats in the house to be able to pass legislation. (Tsvangirai's wing of the MDC won 100 seats in the March elections against 99 for ZANU PF. the Mutambara faction of the MDC took 10 seats and there is also one independent MP.)

Although this would still not give them an absolute voting majority, Moyo called on the two MDC formations to formalise their agreement to function as one entity.

Said Moyo: "One clear failure of the MDC Tsvangirai is that to this day it does not have a binding or functional agreement with the MDC Mutambara to cooperate in Parliament. In fact, the MDC Mutambara formation is continuing to participate in the SADC dialogue as a fully fledged opposition party with all of its rights still reserved. Tsvangirai would have been strategic had he succeeded in ensuring that the two MDCs participated in the dialogue as one voice. He has lost that opportunity and with it he may have lost the opportunity to control Parliament, having already lost the presidency."

In the run up to the March elections, Moyo forged an alliance with the MDC Tsvangirai that the party would not field a candidate against him, so that he could also back Tsvangirai’s bid for the presidency.

Acclaimed University of Zimbabwe political science professor, Eldred Masunungure, said the MDC’s unclear position on the talks was because incoherent views among senior members of the party.

"These contradictions confuse the electorate, the party’s stakeholders and those who are supposed to mediate, and other players in the process. There is need for the party to streamline their line of communication and have one party spokesperson, and a clear party position," said Masunungure.

On the proposal that a neutral figure be chosen to lead a transitional dispensation, Masunungure said "given the current polarization of our politics, it may be difficult to get a neutral figure to independently carry out his/her mandate."

"The parties have to swallow their pride and come up with practical solutions for the nation. Of course, there would be some risks and casualties here and there, but that is the only way out. The nature of the transition: that is the detail of the dialogue, that is what the talks have to tackle," said Masunungure.

Enter women activists. Rita Nyamuranga, from the Women’s Coalition of Zimbabwe (WCoZ) – a grouping of women's organisations in Zimbabwe – said women were "not adequately represented in the negotiations".

"As long as there are no women in those talks, there is no way they can succeed. Women form the largest constituency of this country, and should play a key role in the negotiations," she said.

Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga is the only woman participating the talks being brokered by South African president Thabo Mbeki.