Headlines, Human Rights, Middle East & North Africa | Analysis

EGYPT: Election Brings Victory Without Votes

Analysis by Adam Morrow and Khaled Moussa al-Omrani

CAIRO, Apr 18 2008 (IPS) - The ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) of long-time president Hosni Mubarak swept Egypt&#39s nationwide municipal council elections last week. But while NDP officials lauded the contest as "fair and transparent", opposition groups say their candidates never stood a chance.

"What happened can&#39t even be called an &#39election&#39 since most opposition candidates weren&#39t even allowed to run," Essam al-Arian, prominent member of the Muslim Brotherhood opposition movement – which boycotted the contest – told IPS.

On Apr. 8, elections were held countrywide for 52,000 municipal council seats in some 4,500 towns and cities throughout Egypt. While government spokesmen claimed a high turnout, most independent observers estimate that fewer than 3 percent of the country&#39s registered voters cast their vote.

Not surprisingly, the ruling party won by a landslide. According to official tallies announced earlier this week, the NDP secured more than 98 percent of total seats.

Local councils are relatively powerless in terms of affecting state policy. They are not, however, without political relevance: would-be candidates in upcoming presidential elections – scheduled for 2011 – will require the endorsement of at least 140 council members in order to secure their nominations.

Quoted in the state press, NDP Secretary-General Safwat al-Sherif described the party&#39s triumph as "resounding and honourable." Denying widespread reports of electoral fraud, al-Sherif insisted the contest had been marked by "transparency and impartiality."

According to ruling party officials, the NDP&#39s overwhelming municipal majority will allow it to "reform" Egypt&#39s current system of local administration.

"This takes the shape of democratising these councils in terms of decentralising their services and providing members with greater supervisory powers," Moufid Shehab, minister of state for parliamentary affairs and assistant secretary-general of the NDP, was quoted as saying Apr. 10.

But opposition figures – along with local rights organisations – say the process was stacked in favour of the ruling party from the very beginning. They say that non-NDP candidates were prevented from registering their candidatures due to a government-orchestrated campaign of bureaucratic obstruction and intimidation.

Only days before the election, the Muslim Brotherhood, citing frustration with official intransigence, announced its decision to boycott the election.

"Out of our 10,000 prospective candidates, only 20 had managed to obtain permission to run," said al-Arian. "So we decided to boycott the contest rather than give it legitimacy by participating."

Although the Muslim Brotherhood is officially banned by the state, its members can field electoral candidates as nominal independents. Since 2005 the group has held roughly one-fifth of the seats in the national assembly, making it Egypt&#39s largest opposition force.

The country&#39s three major secular opposition parties – the liberal Wafd, pan-Arab Nasserist and leftist Tagammu parties – also reportedly faced difficulties registering candidates.

"In the end, all the legal opposition parties together were only allowed to field a total of 1,100 candidates," Diaa Rashwan, a senior analyst at the semi-official al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, told IPS. "This represents less than 2 percent of total seats."

He described the recent election as "entirely and obviously fixed in favour of the NDP."

Rashwan went on to explain that a raft of constitutional amendments made last year had served to eliminate oversight of elections by judicial authorities. The change, he said, had allowed the ruling party to blatantly manipulate the voting process to its advantage.

"Now, local council elections are entirely run and supervised by NDP-appointed governors," said Rashwan. "And these are hardly independent."

Despite these obstacles, the main secular opposition parties managed to win roughly 600 council seats between them. Some observers suggest that a deal was struck between these parties and the NDP, in which electoral irregularities were overlooked in exchange for seats.

"There appeared to be an arrangement between the ruling party and the &#39official&#39 opposition parties," said Rashwan. "In return for participating in the election – and thereby lending it legitimacy – the NDP promised them seats in certain districts."

Opposition party spokesmen have vehemently denied the accusation. Nevertheless, a leading Wafd Party official admitted that in some cities – such as Mahalla in the Nile Delta, the recent scene of fierce anti-government protests – the NDP withdrew its candidates at the last minute, leaving opposition contenders to run unopposed.

Muslim Brotherhood officials, meanwhile, say they hope to challenge the election results on legal grounds.

"We have obtained numerous court rulings, which the government has refused to implement, giving our candidates the right to run," said al-Arian. "Our main goal now is to overturn the election results based on these rulings."

Rashwan, however, was not optimistic for the group&#39s judicial prospects.

"A court ruling won&#39t be enough to alter the outcome of the election unless it&#39s delivered by the Supreme Constitutional Court, Egypt&#39s highest judicial authority – and that&#39s not very likely," said Rashwan.

He added: "The entire affair is proof that the notion of free and fair elections in Egypt – so often trumpeted by the government in the past – is now gone for good."