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CLIMATE CHANGE: Displacements Set To Increase

Tarjei Kidd Olsen

OSLO, Apr 28 2008 (IPS) - Climate change is likely to lead to an increase in conflicts and forced migrations of poor people in the south, a new report warns. Developing countries can reduce this impact by adopting preventative measures now, while international law and human rights principles need to be updated.

Most so-called &#39climate refugees&#39 will be displaced both by gradual environmental degradation, slow-onset disasters such as drought, and sudden disasters such as floods or storms, while rising sea levels threaten the very existence of some low-lying island states.

These are the conclusions of a report released in Oslo last week by the NGO Norwegian Refugee Council, based on a review of published research. It warns that conflicts over resources may well increase as the resources get scarcer and as migrants encroach on others&#39 territories.

The report, Future Floods of Refugees, points out that land degradation and desertification seem to be a root cause of the conflict in Sudan&#39s Darfur region, albeit in combination with other factors.

Africa is likely to be the worst hit, closely followed by the so-called Small Island Developing States (SIDS), mega-deltas in Asia, and the Polar Regions.

In countries with high populations such as India and China, many will be displaced when sudden environmental disasters strike. Although less people live in the Caribbean, it is also very vulnerable to sudden disasters such as cyclones, the report says. Central Asia and particularly the Sahel and Nile areas of Africa may be particularly hard hit by droughts.

Some low-lying island states may disappear altogether as sea levels rise. This can also raise the spectre of &#39statelessness&#39 for its former inhabitants. The report gives the example of the 10,000-strong island-state of Tuvalu in the western Pacific, which is expected to become uninhabitable by 2050.

Although some migration to North America and Europe is expected, mostly from Central America and Northern Africa respectively, most displacement is likely to occur within developing countries and regions in Africa and Asia.

"While the developed countries bear the main responsibility for climate change, one could question whether the dynamics of climate change, conflict and forced migration can and should be portrayed as a threat image of masses of refugees flooding over western borders," the report comments.

"The sad truth is that there will be real floods, and if nothing changes, many of the affected will have little choice but to return and risk further flooding."

Developing countries are advised to adopt a wide range of preventative measures to reduce the impact of the climate threats. These include crop and livelihood diversification, famine early warning systems, insurance, water storage and irrigation. Emergency response and disaster recovery mechanisms also need to be improved.

Climate advisor Bård Lahn in the NGO Friends of the Earth Norway does not believe that developing countries can afford to implement such measures without help from developed countries. "No, not at all, and there are many reasons for that. We are talking about societies that are poor to begin with and that often do not have adequate societal structures of many kinds.

"Rich countries have already pledged to help the poor part of the world handle this challenge, and we are not talking about charity – it is the rich countries that have caused these problems and it is the rich countries that have emitted the most pollutants so far in history, while it is the poor who suffer. So there is a clear moral imperative for the rich part of the world to contribute to the poor countries&#39 adaptation," Lahn told IPS.

He says that while there are many estimates, there is good reason to expect that the climate adaptations will cost at least 50 billion dollars a year for decades to come. "I not only think that this is a realistic sum to expect countries to pay, I believe that it is a necessary prerequisite for any new climate agreement," Lahn notes, referring to the negotiations that will take place in Copenhagen in 2009 for a new agreement to succeed Kyoto.

"We are not talking about goodwill gestures. The poor part of the world expects mandatory mechanisms to be put into place that ensure that rich countries contribute money to these measures. Taxes on international aviation and marine transport have been suggested, and there are many other options."

The report by Norwegian Refugee Council says that developed countries, with 15 percent of the world&#39s population but almost half of global carbon dioxide emissions, need to implement measures such as emission cuts and reforestation. Major developing countries such as India and China need to follow.

The report also argues that more work needs to be done to understand the legal rights of climate refugees and which new measures need to be taken in this regard to help migrants that may otherwise be forced to return home only to continue to suffer from environmental risks.

For instance, it may be possible to expand interpretation of the United Nations 1951 Refugee Convention to include environmental degradation or disaster as a form of persecution. Similarly, victims of severe environmental degradation and sudden disasters may be protected against return by the human rights principle of &#39non-refoulement&#39, which protects people that face a risk of certain ill-treatment.

Humanitarian asylum or another protected status can be granted in cases of international migration, the report suggests, while internally displaced have protections under the U.N.&#39s 1998 Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement. In the case of slow-onset disasters these principles may need to be expanded.

The report agues that the common terms &#39climate refugee&#39 and &#39environmental refugee&#39 can be misleading in themselves. For instance, causes of migration such as conflict or economic hardship can be difficult to separate from environmental reasons – particularly in the case of slow-onset environmental degradation – while many migrants will be internally displaced and not international border-crossing &#39refugees&#39.