HUNGARY: Right Steps Ahead with Referendum Victory

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Zoltán Dujisin

PRAGUE, Mar 11 2008 (IPS) - In an opposition-initiated referendum, Hungarians have overwhelmingly voted against present healthcare and tuition fees, sending a strong message to the country’s weakened socialist-liberal coalition.

The country of 10 million is in the midst of wide-ranging reforms and austerity measures which are deemed necessary by the governing Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) and the liberal Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ).

The right-wing opposition Fidesz says the referendum was necessary as the 2006 socialist victory in the elections was achieved after lying about the state of the economy, as socialist Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány himself admitted in a scandal that culminated in the October 2006 riots.

With a 50 percent turnout in last Sunday’s non-binding referendum, surprising for a generally passive population, over 80 percent of voters said they opposed tuition, visiting, and hospital daily fees.

The government, whose resignation has been demanded by the opposition since the beginning of its term, faces mounting pressure. Opposition leader Viktor Orbán says it should come to an agreement with society or face another referendum on a crucial health insurance reform.

With Fidesz claiming victory and calling the results a humiliation for the government, Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, eastern Europe’s main representative of the ‘New Left’, said he would respect the people’s will and abolish the contested fees.

Nevertheless, the unpopular Prime Minister, whose approval rating is slightly below 20 percent, added he would not compensate hospitals and universities for losses suffered once the fees are removed.

Hungary’s socialists had never agreed to a referendum they always expected to lose, but the campaign to discourage voters from participating failed to prevent all-too clear defeat.

“The unexpectedly high participation, the second highest since 1989, was a huge defeat for the government,” sociologist Mate Zombory told IPS. “But the vote doesn’t touch the very meaning of the reforms, just their surface,” he added.

The results indicate that many socialist supporters are critical of reform measures, though they might not have voted with the intent of forcing the government to resign, as was the case with most right-wing supporters.

“Nobody knows what the vote means; for some it was meant against the government, for others as a protest vote against the socialist party, but we don’t know the proportions,” says Zombory.

The sociologist says politicians will push for a convenient interpretation of results. “Orbán will say it’s a vote against the government, while the socialists will claim it’s a vote only against some of the measures but not the reforms themselves,” he told IPS.

The government has had great success in lowering the budget deficit, but Hungarians have only experienced austerity measures while not yet feeling much benefit from reforms. The government claims the most difficult part is over and that soon people will enjoy prosperity.

In an attempt to signal change to its citizens ahead of the referendum defeat, the Prime Minister promised a new cooperative style of governance and proceeded to yet another minor cabinet reshuffle – the eighth in 18 months of governance.

Many have noted that the constant changes in government have sent a message of instability to voters who do not understand the nature and purpose of reforms, while the opposition says the Prime Minister is simply taking measures to ensure his political survival.

Fidesz’s initial goal had been to morally force the governing coalition to resign, but in the weeks preceding the vote Fidesz leader Viktor Orbán stepped back by adopting a more moderate rhetoric aimed at attracting centrist voters who have decided the two previous legislative elections against him.

But many of his more radical supporters are relentlessly committed to putting an end to Gyurcsány’s tenure, and there are fears the Mar. 15 national holiday could be again the stage of mass anti-government demonstrations resulting in street violence.

Orbán, considered the favourite for the 2010 legislative elections, is however hoping internal pressure within an increasingly dissatisfied MSZP will lead to an internal coup against Gyurcsány.

While the government has managed to pass its reform measures in parliament, internal dissent has become louder, and many are unhappy with Gyurcsány’s poor capacity for social dialogue and his incompatibility with traditional left-wing values.

Many socialist politicians are beginning to wonder whether the party needs a new prime minister to retain any chances in the 2010 legislative elections.

Recent opinion polls show the opposition leads by 53 percent to 32 percent over the socialists among decided voters, some of them even former socialists, making Fidesz one of the strongest parties in Europe.

But MSZP has a history of turning negative mid-term opinion polls into surprising election victories, although its present approval ratings are an unprecedented low.

The presence of Orbán in the opposition has certainly been of help – the conservative leader’s often radical and nationalistic style and failure to condemn the extreme right are unacceptable to left-wing voters who would have anyone but Orbán as prime minister.

But large sectors of society remain disillusioned, and indifferent to political developments – another poll shows 20 percent of Hungarians would like to see a new party emerge.

The opposition leader has of recent strived to change his image by assuming a more social democratic stance, but his all too frequent changes in ideology leave many who remember his beginnings as a liberal opponent of the socialist regime sceptical.

Orbán now says ideology is secondary to a people’s party like his, concerned only with the welfare of citizens.