Asia-Pacific, Civil Society, Development & Aid, Food and Agriculture, Headlines

PAKISTAN: Beset By Multiple Crises

Muddassir Rizvi

ISLAMABAD, Jan 14 2008 (IPS) - Food shortages, cold homes, political instability and internal security problems are haunting Pakistan’s embattled President Pervez Musharraf who appears helpless as multiple crises erode his legitimacy and his capacity to manage affairs of the state.

The assassination of Pakistan People’s Party chairperson Benazir Bhutto on Dec. 27 opened a new chapter of instability, prompting Musharraf’s opponents to demand his exit as the only way forward. Few believe that free and fair elections are possible with him at the helm, or that political instability will cease after the elections.

And Musharraf’s political woes have been exacerbated by the worst energy and food shortages to hit the country in recent years. While civil society is already agitated over the way he sacked members of the higher judiciary, last November, his government now has to deal with mobs of ordinary people protesting against food scarcity and energy breakdowns.

“He is multiplying his opponents by staying on in power. He has outlived his charisma,” says Amir Waseem, a senior journalist and political commentator who works with the English-language daily ‘Dawn.’

People in the northern Swat valley – where the military is conducting an operation to cleanse it of right-wing militants – have already announced that they will boycott the upcoming elections, unless the government provides them with enough energy to light and warm their homes, set in an area where temperatures stay below freezing point for most part of the winter.

“This is just too much. We cannot continue to be treated like sheep and goats. Power outages last more than 10 hours a day,” said Iqbal Mulk, who hails from Mingora, a major town in Swat.

Musharraf’s response was typical of a former army chief. In a public appearance on Jan. 14 he warned that agitators on the election day (Feb. 18) will be shot by the army or paramilitary forces manning the polling stations.

On the weekend he ordered deployment of the already over-stretched security forces to guard the wheat supply chain, in a desperate measure to regulate supplies of the commodity to domestic consumers and across the border to food-starved Afghanistan.

“The paramilitary forces, including Pakistan Rangers and Frontier Constabulary, have been deployed at the wheat warehouses and flour mills. They are going to perform the monitoring function of the supply chain – warehouses to flour mills to consumers and ensure that there is no hoarding or smuggling,” commented an official in the country’s home ministry.

Press reports suggest that the paramilitary troops have already started taking over flour mills in the Punjab province: this at a time when there is criticism that engaging the military in all aspects of public life is part of the problem rather than its solution.

“For Musharraf, the military appears to be the panacea for all ills when clearly its extensive engagement in the civilian sphere has created insurmountable issues of security and political instability which are causing a challenge to the integrity of the state,” commented Waseem.

The government, however, justifies the extreme measure as the best way to create market stability as, according to it, low wheat prices in Pakistan, a farming country, encourage its smuggling to Afghanistan, Central Asia and India – an explanation rejected by detractors as hogwash.

IPS gathered from various officials and political sources that the government, last year, allowed export of wheat and flour to appease members of the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) that supports Musharraf and who have huge stakes in the export trade.

With cheaper prices of the commodity at home, the exporters hauled in huge profits in the international market. When scarcities finally began to show up, a couple of months ago, the government imposed a 35 percent regulatory duty, but by that time it was too late as much of the wheat stock had already been exported.

“When political appeasement defeats economic rationality, such crises of mega proportions are bound to happen. Our priority should always be domestic food security. We should have built our critical reserves rather than allowing the export,” a spokesman for the opposition Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), told IPS.

Having already been dubbed a “destabilising factor” by the International Crisis Group, the Brussels-based think tank, for his inability to rein in the extremist groups, Musharraf is now taking flak for his domestic policy and planning by the public and opposition politicians.

“What is the government doing? Just fine words, but nothing really for the poor people,” complained an agitated Muhammad Ali Bhutta standing in a long queue outside a Utility Store, a chain of state-run outlets throughout the country. “This is just too much. We have no flour. The pressure of natural gas in our homes is too low to cook anything…power is out for hours without any schedule. Are we going back to the dark ages?” questioned Bhutta.

Bhutta is among a majority of people who cannot buy flour in the open market because prices have doubled over the past one month to eight US dollars per 10 kg bag. ‘’There is nothing for the poor people in this country. They are squeezing our space to an extent that we are now worried about two square meals a day,” says Muhammad Salim, who works with a telecommunication company and earns about 100 dollars a month.

According to data acquired by IPS from Water and Power Development Authority, only 7,000 Mw of electricity is being produced against a demand of 9,000 Mw during normal hours and 10,000 to 10,500 Mw during peak hours. Similarly, government statistics suggest that natural gas production stands at 2.9 billion cu ft against a demand of 4 billion cu ft.

While energy crisis is causing anxiety and anger among domestic consumers, it is leading to substantial losses with the closure of industrial units. According to Akbar Shaikh, who heads the All-Pakistan Textile Mills Association, as many as 300 textile industries have closed down due the energy crisis in the Punjab province alone. Similarly, 120 industrial units have closed down in an industrial estate near the north-western city of Peshawar.

Cotton and textiles are the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, fetching more than 60 percent of the country’s exports earnings. Tax authorities are already reporting a shortfall in revenue collection as a result of economic slowdown due to security and energy crisis in the country. According to a report published by the English-language daily ‘The Nation’, the tax collection remained at Rs four billion (66 million dollars) in December 2007 as against Rs 24 billion (four billion dollars) in December 2006.

While any new power generation project may not be in operation before a couple of years according to officials, the caretaker government last week laid out an energy conservation plan. Under this new initiative, the government will enforce an early closedown of shopping centres and encourage only essential usage of electricity by domestic, private and public consumers.

The state-run natural gas distribution companies are already advising the public to wear warm clothes and suggest that the use of gas heaters is injurious to health.

“The only way forward is for Musharraf to hand over power to a civilian dispensation through the holding of free and fair elections. He has become a liability and he doesn’t seem to realise it,” says Asifa Hasan, who works with an election monitoring group.