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Q&A: ‘Melting Himalayan Glaciers Threaten India, China’

Ann Ninan

NEW DELHI, Dec 12 2007 (IPS) - Precious little is expected to emerge from the ongoing United Nations climate change conference in Bali, but climatologists and scientific experts warn that time is rapidly running out for planet earth.

Veerabhadran Ramanathan, distinguished professor of climate and atmospheric sciences, University of California, San Diego, has been key to understanding the impact of solar heating of the air over the Himalayan glaciers, a major source of fresh water in South Asia and China.

Melting Himalayan glaciers are the greatest threat facing the two most populous countries in the world, he said in an interview with IPS correspondent Ann Ninan. He has established that monsoon rainfall has decreased by seven percent already in India, while storms are increasing.

India-born Ramanathan, whose research focuses on global climate dynamics, solar radiation transfer, the greenhouse effect, clouds, aerosol and satellite remote sensing, was among the first to describe the plight of the planet.

IPS: You were the first to talk about ‘Global Dimming’.

VR : The word was coined by Dr. G. Stanhill from Israel, in 2001. My work, as a series of papers published from 1996 to 2001, was one of the earliest to show by direct observation, that widespread brown clouds can lead to large reduction of solar radiation or global dimming at the surface over South Asia and Indian Ocean (Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal).

IPS: What are its implications?

VR: In a paper published in 2005, we showed that solar radiation has dimmed by as much as seven percent in India. This dimming has led to reduced monsoon rainfall.

We followed this up with another paper in Nature (August 2007), that the dimming by brown clouds, was accompanied by significant absorption of solar radiation by the soot in brown clouds; and this soot induced solar heating of the air was a significant contributor to the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas. I consider the Himalayan glacier retreat as the major threat facing India.

IPS: The study you led in the Maldives broke new ground. Its results surprised everyone.

VR: It showed that due to fast atmospheric transport, brown clouds are widespread over most of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The soot in the brown clouds absorb sunlight and heats the atmosphere; the other side of this brown cloud coin, is that by intercepting and trapping sunlight in the atmosphere, it was causing dimming at the surface. We used unmanned aircraft with instruments, surface observatories, and satellites to document the brown cloud, its dimming at the surface and heating of the atmosphere.

IPS: The Gangotri glacier, the source of the Ganga, in India, is shrinking.

VR: This is the greatest threat facing India and China for the Himalayan glaciers are the source of the major river systems of South and East Asia. Our findings are that the melting is due to warming by greenhouse gases and by brown cloud absorption of sunlight. The major causes of brown clouds are biofuel cooking, biomass burning, and fossil fuel combustion (diesel, coal and two-stroke engines). Determined actions by India and China acting together, can mitigate the negative effects of brown clouds on the monsoon, Himalayan glacier retreat and water and food security of the region.

IPS: You have warned that air pollution and global dimming will have a detrimental effect on the Asian monsoon. Are we seeing the impact already?

VR: Yes. The monsoon rainfall has decreased by about seven percent already. While the intense rainfall and storms are increasing, rainfall from extensive stratiform (gentle rainfall) is decreasing.

IPS: Millions of people are dependent on rain-fed agriculture for survival.

VR: Food crisis is likely. The evidence: rainfed rice production in India has levelled off since the 1990s, in spite of increased fertiliser use and advanced cropping practices.

IPS: We live in a global dimming and global warming world. With cleaner technologies we could take out global dimming, but that means global warming will get much worse, much hotter. Is there a broad consensus on this view? Your comments.

VR: There is consensus, that globally the planet will get much get hotter with cleaner technologies (as far as brown cloud is concerned). However, regionally, reduction of brown clouds will have a positive impact on Asia, for it will slow down the glacier retreat.

IPS: You have said the rate at which the planet is changing is incredible. Can we hope to see the U.S. and Australia fall in line?

VR: I think so. I see more political movement in U.S. and Australia in favor of taking actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

IPS: Since 2001, the IPCC have in reports confirmed your predictions that the human impact on the earth’s surface temperatures was already discernible.

VR: I am sad that our predictions are coming true; since my predictions (made in 1980 and 1985) suggest matters getting far worse in the coming decades.

Let us take actions now and save our children and grandchildren from facing a potential catastrophe. Effective mitigation steps taken now will be the most important legacy that our generation can leave behind for generations to come. Let us not be remembered as the most selfish generation of the new millennium.