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POLITICS-THAILAND: Polls – Referendum on Military’s Role

Analysis by Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Dec 21 2007 (IPS) - Thais voting Sunday in the first parliamentary polls since last year’s coup will be doing more than casting ballots for a favoured political party. Their choices may indicate how supportive voters are of the military interfering in the nation’s politics.

Much will depend on the number of seats secured by the People Power Party (PPP) in the 480-member legislature and the number of votes it receives. The PPP has strongly identified itself with the polices of twice-elected former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was driven out of power in the mid-September 2006 putsch.

This referendum, of sorts, on the ruling junta, comes despite military leaders not being in the fray as candidates for the Dec. 23 elections. But the junta has taken action to ensure that the military continues to have a grip on power even after the weekend’s poll.

The passage of a controversial bill late Thursday night in the military-appointed National Legislative Assembly removed all doubts about the military’s ambitions. The internal security law permits the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC) to impose curfews, prevent public rallies and, even, restrict the authority of government officials in situations regarded as threatening to national security.

ISOC was originally established by the country’s military dictators during the Cold War, when Bangkok was fighting a domestic communist insurgency. The military enjoyed special protective power under ISOC’s rules at the time, placing the troops above the laws of accountability. ISOC’s powers were gradually reduced by the late 1980s as the communist threat waned, and Thailand’s 1997 constitution clipped its authority further.

After the leaders of a 1991 coup were forced to give up power following a popular uprising in 1992, the country witnessed unprecedented growth as a young democracy, with elected political parties and emerging civil society groups dominating the national stage. But the hope that had shaped that 15-year period – of the country having politically matured and the army accepting it had no political role – was shattered with the country’s 18th coup last year.

Such reluctance of military leaders to leave politics is deeply rooted in a culture where the army sees itself as ‘’the defender, creator and developer of Thai society,’’ says Panitan Wattanayagorn, a national security expert at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. ‘’The structure, nature and tools of the Thai forces must be changed if Thai democracy is to modernise and move forward.’’

Reports by human rights groups and election monitors following the campaigns for Sunday’s polls have earned the junta no merit. ‘’Failure by Thailand’s Electoral Commission to act on evidence of military interference in the upcoming Thai elections undermines prospects for Sunday’s elections to be free and fair,’’ Human Rights Watch (HRW) said this week.

The New York-based rights lobby was troubled by reports of the military harassing and intimidating candidates of the PPP, which is advancing the pro-poor policies that had won Thaksin, and his Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thai – TRT) party, two consecutive terms in office. The TRT and 111 of its leaders, including Thaksin, were banned from politics following a verdict delivered early this year by a military-appointed special tribunal.

‘’The courts dissolved the TRT party for manipulating the electoral process, but now the junta is doing the same thing,’’ Elaine Pearson, deputy director of HRW’s Asia division, said in a statement. ‘’Military leaders are manoeuvring to influence voting results and to prevent Thaksin’s allies from returning to government.’’

The junta is also using martial law to prevent the PPP making headway. The 31 of Thailand’s 76 provinces where martial law is in force are largely in the north and north-east, where support for Thaksin has been strong due to his welfare polices to assist the rural poor in those regions.

Such restrictions, however, have not blunted the optimism of the PPP. ‘’We are hoping to win more than half the seats in parliament,’’ Jakrapob Penkair, chairman of the PPP’s international affairs task force, told journalists Friday at the party’s headquarters. ‘’We have moved beyond trying to strike deals and work with the other parties.’’

‘’We hope that the people will have a stronger voice than the military to assert the power of democracy,’’ he added. ‘’The Dec. 23 elections will help to draw a line between dictatorship and democracy.’’

Even the other main party in the race, the Democrat Party, offered a warning to ambitious military leaders as Thailand tries to regain political normalcy after the elections. ‘’If the military shows signs of wanting to hang on to power, the Democrats will be out there protesting,’’ Abhisit Vejajiva, leader of the party, said during a speech at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand on Tuesday.

‘’The best thing that the polls can do is to make sure that coups are a thing of the past. For that, politicians must uphold the rule of law,’’ added the 43-year-old Abhisit, who could become this South-east Asian nation’s youngest elected prime minister if his party triumphs on Sunday. ‘’I think the military would have learnt a lot of lessons (over the past year). The easiest part was seizing power.’’