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COMMONWEALTH-PAKISTAN: Suspended, But Not Banished

Analysis by Sanjay Suri

KAMPALA, Nov 23 2007 (IPS) - The headlines over suspension of Pakistan from the Commonwealth conceal some of the nuances of this action. The nuances were born of considerable differences that surfaced within the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) that finally took the decision.

The group "also affirmed its strong commitment to remain engaged with Pakistan, as a valued member of the Commonwealth, (and) to work to assist the return to democracy in that country." Pakistan, then, remains officially a member of the Commonwealth, and a valued one, despite the headlines.

Britain had campaigned to give President Pervez Musharraf a chance at least until January to make good on his promise for fair elections. British Foreign Secretary David Milliband announced that "you will see very practical steps that the Commonwealth is determined to reach out to Pakistan, including the possibility of a CMAG mission to Pakistan."

This refusal to isolate Pakistan fully could well be a good thing. "We want the Commonwealth to take action against the government of Pakistan, not the people of Pakistan," Claire Doube from the civil society group Civicus told IPS. "It is after all not their fault that they are faced with this denial of rights."

A state of emergency was declared in Pakistan earlier this month and the constitution suspended. Officials dismissed judges and detained human rights activists, members of the opposition, journalists and lawyers – this as the court was about to rule on the legality of Musharraf&#39s re-election last month. On Thursday, judges sympathetic to the president – who is also army chief – confirmed his new term in office.

Musharraf has said emergency rule was necessitated, in part, by the threat of Islamic extremism.

Over recent days, Pakistan&#39s government has made promising moves, Doube said. Certain detainees have been released, and restrictions on some media organisations eased. But Pakistan must do more to earn back full Commonwealth membership, she added.

The optimistic view within the Commonwealth is that "suspension-lite" makes engagement with the government possible.

The less optimistic view is also the more obvious. It is difficult for anyone to claim that Pakistan lost materially in any way between 1999 when Musharraf took power in a coup, and 2004 when Pakistan was readmitted with the promise of a return to proper democracy – that did not quite come. Consequently, it&#39s also hard to claim that Pakistan stands to lose materially now.

But, there is loss to its international standing. The Commonwealth decision comes as a rap on the knuckles: well short of a slap in the face, but a public embarrassment nevertheless. And it can be argued that democratically elected leaders representing a couple of billion people have now spoken against Musharraf formally.

Suspension clearly hurts Pakistan enough for its leaders to have written to CMAG (comprising Malta, Lesotho, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Britain, Canada, Tanzania, Papua New Guinea and St Lucia) to argue against such a move. The argument convinced enough members for CMAG hold off from harsher action until the elections, promised for Jan. 8.

The suspension of Pakistan from the councils means exclusion of its representatives from participation in all inter-governmental Commonwealth meetings and in other inter-governmental Commonwealth activities, including CHOGM (the biennial Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, currently underway in the Ugandan capital, Kampala).

Pakistan seems clearly to have anticipated the decision. CMAG declared that it had "noted Pakistan&#39s own decision not to attend the Kampala CHOGM." It may have proved embarrassing to tell arriving officials due to attend particular meetings that they might need to take an earlier than intended flight back.

The Commonwealth is taking forward its activities over Pakistan seriously, in the name of "solidarity with the people of Pakistan." And its decision has so far at least armed people with an argument against Musharraf.

Not all of CMAG&#39s joint declaration seemed entirely sombre, though. The ministerial group said in its written statement: "CMAG acknowledged President Musharraf&#39s intention to remove his uniform, and looked forward to him doing so as soon as possible."