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CLIMATE CHANGE: Nobel Prize Recognises Scientific Community

Gustavo Capdevila

GENEVA, Oct 12 2007 (IPS) - Climate change is linked to world peace because the effects of global warming can threaten stability and harmony in the world, according to Rajendra Pachauri, one of thousands of international scientists who are to share the Nobel Peace Prize with former U.S. Vice President Al Gore.

Pachauri, from India, is the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group created by the United Nations in 1988 to assess scientific, technical and economic information relevant to comprehending climate change, its potential effects, and the options for mitigation and adaptation.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee announced in Oslo on Friday the award of this year’s Peace Prize to the IPCC and Gore, an eminent environmentalist who was vice president of his country for two consecutive terms (1993-2001).

"I suppose the award is a recognition of the linkage between climate change and the potential for disruption of peace in the future," Pachauri said. Climate change is almost certainly caused by some kinds of economic activity, according to the IPCC.

"I&#39m very happy to see that the Nobel Prize committee has viewed the issue of climate change within that context," Pachauri told correspondents in Geneva, where the IPCC has its headquarters, in a video-conference from New Delhi, the capital of his country.

"I&#39m not saying that global peace and stability will be threatened by the impact of climate change, but it could be threatened," he said.

"But we’re living in a very unequal world. There are parts of the world that are poor, and have no infrastructure to tackle even changes in the weather that take place on a normal basis. If we are going to have serious and intense impacts of climate change on top of that, then obviously that&#39s going to affect them," the IPCC chairman warned.

"I may also say that there are parts of the world where there may be movements of populations as a result of the impacts of climate change. Whenever that happens the social structure will break down, and there will always be the danger of conflict," he predicted.

"Therefore, climate change could very well become a threat to global peace," said Pachauri.

The announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize recipients was greeted by environmentalists in Geneva as a recognition of the work of scientists who over the past 19 years have produced four IPCC assessment reports, which have sounded the alarm about the effects of global warming.

The fourth assessment report will be presented in full at the IPCC meeting to be held in Valencia, Spain, from Nov. 12 to 17.

The following month, from Dec. 3 to 14, the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP) will take place in Bali, Indonesia. At this conference, states will take decisions on measures to mitigate climate change.

"My advice to all the governments that are involved in the Conference of the Parties is to look at the science and the knowledge that is contained in the IPCC reports," said Pachauri.

The results in these scientific reports indicate that humankind has substantially altered the earth’s atmosphere. Concentrations of carbon dioxide measured in 2005 exceeded the natural levels that have existed for 650,000 years. The warmest 11 years since records began to be kept have occurred within the last 12 years.

Burning fossil fuels like coal, gas and oil, deforestation, and livestock raising cause the emission of gases which, like carbon dioxide, trap the sun’s heat in the atmosphere, adding to these gases’ natural greenhouse effect.

This process of global warming has triggered climate change, according to the scientific consensus represented in the IPCC.

During the 20th century, the global surface air temperature increased by an average of 0.74 degrees Celsius, while the sea level rose 17 centimetres and snow disappeared from a large part of the northern hemisphere, according to the IPCC.

Forecasts for the 21st century, according to most models, predict an increase in temperature of 1.8 degrees. The most pessimistic forecasts predict that average surface air temperature may rise by as much as four degrees.

"The Nobel Prize Committee has acknowledged the work that the IPCC has done. Let me clarify, as chairman, that all the scientists who have contributed to the work of the IPCC are the Nobel laureates who have been recognised and applauded by the Nobel Prize committee," Pachauri said.

"This recognition, this award also thrusts a new responsibility on our shoulders. We have to do more, we have many more miles to go," said Pachauri.

Michel Jarraud, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), said that the award to the IPCC is a recognition of the role of the international scientific community in creating awareness and understanding of the effect of human activities on climate.

Because of their limited resources, developing countries face greater risks and are more vulnerable, Jarraud pointed out.

For her part, Renate Christ, the secretary of IPCC, said "I think that this distinction is a recognition that climate change is a factor which can jeopardise the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals."

"This recognition and this awareness may certainly help to avoid negative impacts. At least, I hope so," she told IPS.

Pachauri said he was "delighted and privileged" that Gore was co-awarded the prize. "He is a wonderful human being," he said.

Gore has devoted himself to raising awareness of human responsibility for climate change around the world.

"Gore’s commitment is obviously one reason why the world is much better today than it would otherwise be," Pachauri said.