Asia-Pacific, Global, Global Geopolitics, Headlines

JAPAN: Surrendering Influence in Asia

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Aug 15 2007 (IPS) - Japan, 62 years after the traumatic surrender that ended World War ll on Aug. 15, 1945, has the satisfaction of rising to be a powerful influence in Asia. But it is also facing new and painful choices, say analysts here.

”For most Japanese, the old comfortable picture of a strong pacifist Japan is now on shaky ground. The reality today is coping with a more assertive Asia, China’s power and influence in the region, the upcoming summit of the two Koreas this month, and Japan’s own slower economic growth, This is unsettling for us,’’ said Prof. Koichi Ishiyama, an expert on the international economy at Tooin University, Yokohama.

If Wednesday’s low-key ceremonies at the Yasukuni shrine to mark the surrender, referred to as ‘Day of Mourning’, could be seen as an example of how Japan is coping with the new geopolitics, experts say the lack of the usual nationalistic fervour is a potent indication of the ongoing confusion in the country.

In contrast to the political controversy surrounding former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi’s visit to the shrine on Aug. 15, 2005, this time around not a single cabinet minister let alone Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a die-hard conservative, visited Yasukuni. This development is believed to be the effect of last month’s election results where the ruling Liberal Democratic Party was defeated, according to experts.

‘’The decision not to play up Yauskuni this year reflects the election which showed that the public is not supportive of the Abe policy that relies on fanning nationalism represented by a strong government to restore the glory of the past,’’ explained analyst Hideo Shimzu, a constitution expert.

Japan’s Class-A war criminals are buried at Yasukuni, a Shinto shrine that played a central role when Japan invaded much of Asia in the early 20th century. On Aug. 15, aging men dressed in their old military uniforms, along with right-wing groups, customarily gather at Yasukuni calling for a militarily strong Japan again.

Abe, mindful of criticism from Asian countries, has not visited Yasukuni after Koizumi’s exit, but he has made the revision of Japan’s postwar pacifist constitution an important goal to boost Japan’s leadership role in world affairs.

In his slogan, ‘A beautiful Japan,’ Abe envisions a strong Japanese government that can make the country proud of its history and identity, a policy he has explained as necessary to cope with the changing world.

In keeping with this platform, Japan’s Self Defence Forces now comprise a special unit designated for conflicts abroad and Japan has joined India and the United States in naval exercises in the Indian Ocean.

Yet analysts point out this path may now not be as smooth as earlier perceived. ‘’The attempt to revise nationalism carried some meaning with the public that was looking for a new self-confidence following Japan’s economic and social downturn this past decade. But the consequence of resorting to conservative politics has raised new alarming issues and has made the public wary,’’ he told IPS.

Most noteworthy is the sidelining of Japan on the diplomatic front, especially across the border with China and both North and South Korea where relations, never smooth, have become cooler.

An important fallout of Koizumi’s Yasukuni visit was a China-led campaign that opposed and finally influenced the defeat of Japan in its bid to gain a permanent seat in the prestigious United Nations Security Council in 2005.

Another dilemma for Japan, says Keio University professor Masao Okonogi, is the looming isolation of Japan in solving the North Korean threat in Asia.

Referring to the upcoming Koreas summit, slated for Aug. 28, Okonogi explained to IPS that Abe has led Japanese diplomacy on an uneasy path with his hard line policy towards North Korea that ties aid to the Stalinist state to the return of kidnapped Japanese, in contrast to the more cooperative strategy taken up by the U.S., South Korea and China that are now taking the lead to get Pyongyang to contain its nuclear weapons programme.

‘’The Abe administration is making a grave mistake on this regional issue,’’ said Okonogi who has repeatedly challenged conservative analysts who support Abe.

Japanese isolation in Asian diplomacy is also obvious on the economic front where, experts point out, Japan must now grapple with the challenge of China’s growth.

‘’While Japanese investment and aid in Asia remains highly respected in the region, there is no denying that China has become the most valuable trading partner for many countries. This calls for a new vision in Japan that cannot be met with narrow nationalism,’’ opined Ishiyama.

For example, China’s trade with India was around 17 billion US dollars in 2005, three times more than Japan-India bilateral trade that year. Chinese foreign investment and international assistance, such as the China-Africa Development fund launched this June, is also a new issue for Japan.

The search for a fresh strategy is complex, contend experts who also say the defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party is expected to complicate things further.