WORLD WATER DAY: Nile Bounty Not Enough to Supply Egypt

By Adam Morrow Reprint | | Print |

Adam Morrow and Khaled Moussa al-Omrani

CAIRO, Mar 22 2007 (IPS) - Over the course of the 1990s, grave warnings were occasionally aired about the role of water in Middle Eastern power politics. In 1991, former Egyptian foreign minister Boutros Boutros- Ghali, shortly before he was appointed UN secretary-general, ominously predicted that “the next war in the region will be over water.”

Boutros-Ghali’s prophecy never came to pass, and the water issue has been eclipsed by other regional disputes. Nevertheless, according to recent studies, the water situation in the Middle East remains a matter for serious concern.

Due to speedy population growth and the industrialisation of agriculture worldwide, the last half-century has seen global water demand triple. A report issued this month by the World Bank noted that the Middle East represented “the most water-scarce region in the world.”

On Mar. 11, World Bank officials urged governments in the region to integrate sound water management into their wider economic policies.

“Meeting the water needs of the growing populations of the Middle East and North Africa can no longer be based on a business-as-usual approach,” said World Bank vice-president for the Middle East and North Africa region Daniela Gressani. “Policy in other areas – agriculture, trade, land markets, finance, energy pricing – all have an impact on how much water is used and how efficiently.”

Egypt, despite its fortuitous position astride the lowermost reaches of the Nile river system – the world’s longest, from source to terminus – is no less concerned with water issues than its neighbours.

According to official estimates, the average Egyptian currently consumes 850 cubic metres per year. While this is higher than in most other countries in the region, this figure is expected to fall to 600 cubic metres by 2025 and to 400 cubic metres by 2050 if the population rate continues to climb at the current rate.

A report issued last year by the United Nations noted that some 8.6 million Egyptians already live without sources of clean drinking water. Egypt has a population of 79 million.

The lion’s share of Egypt’s consumption, 88 percent, goes towards irrigation and agriculture. Economists, however, point out that the agriculture sector contributes less than 25 percent of Egypt’s national income.

Because of the region’s negligible rainfall levels and an inadequate supply of groundwater, the vast majority of consumed water is derived from the Nile. But while the famous river has been popularly associated with Egypt since the time of Herodotus, the 5th century Greek historian, the reality is somewhat more contentious.

Ten different African countries depend on the river to varying degrees, with Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia topping the list of consumers. Under a 1959 treaty that remains in force, Egypt’s share of Nile water was set at 55.5 billion cubic metres out of a total annual discharge of some 84 billion cubic metres. Sudan, meanwhile, was allocated 18.5 billion.

Since then Egypt’s population has doubled, with forecasts that the figure will double again by 2050. Populations in most of the other riparian states, meanwhile, have seen similar levels of growth, which has led to calls for a more equitable water-sharing arrangement.

Talks have long been under way between the Nile Basin counties over the terms of a new agreement. According to Egyptian minister for water resources and irrigation Mahmoud Abu Zeid, the majority of the treaty’s articles have been endorsed by all sides, although a handful of outstanding issues have yet to be settled.

Earlier this month, however, Abu Zeid was quoted as saying in the state press that a final agreement could be expected “within months.”

In mid-March, a series of seminars under the title ‘The River Nile and Water Security’ was held in Cairo. There Abu Zeid, who is also the head of the World Water Council, named the three main components of Egypt’s current hydro-political strategy, launched in 1998.

“Our strategy is threefold,” Abu Zeid was quoted as saying in government daily al-Ahram. “It aims at more efficient exploitation of all available water sources; prevention of water pollution; and cooperation with the river-basin countries to protect and preserve the Nile.”

He went on to say that, from the period 1998 to 2017, the government planned to spend some 25 billion dollars on new water projects, roughly 60 percent of which was to be allocated to potable drinking water projects.

According to experts, however, finding new water sources will be paramount, especially in light of booming population figures.

“Egyptians don’t realise that Egypt has become – in spite of the Nile – a water-scarce country,” Hani Raslan, an analyst at the government-run al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies told IPS. “If the authorities want to prevent serious shortages in the future, they will have to work hard to find and create new sources of water.”