POPULATION: Aging Nations Need Shift in Resources

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Mithre J. Sandrasagra

UNITED NATIONS, Mar 13 2007 (IPS) - The world’s population continues to age and is on track to surpass nine billion people by 2050, according to the United Nations’ latest statistical projections released Tuesday.

“World Population Prospects: 2006 Revision” says that the global population will increase by 2.5 billion over the next 43 years, growing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050.

“The bulk of this population increase will be absorbed by the developing countries,” said Hania Zlotnik, director of the U.N. Population Division, at the launch of the report.

The developing world’s population is expected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050, according to the new estimates.

As a result of declining fertility and increasing longevity, the populations of more and more countries are aging rapidly, according to Zlotnik.

“Aging is the result of a great success of humanity to reduce its numbers,” Zlotnik stressed, “the question is whether humanity can adapt to its new circumstances.”

“Population aging is a twentieth-century phenomenon resulting partly from improvements in life expectancy,” Obaid said. “It also coincides with history’s largest-ever cohort of young people. The challenge is to meet the needs of older persons while at the same time meeting the urgent needs of the young, especially in developing countries.”

Slow population growth brought about by lower birth rates leads to population aging, and produces populations where the proportion of older persons increases while that of younger persons decrease.

In developed countries, 20 percent of the population is already over 60 years old, and is projected to reach 33 percent in 2050. In these countries, the number of older people has already surpassed that of children, according to the report.

Health care services, pensions and social support services that once depended on a younger workforce supporting a system to care for retirees are being reevaluated in light of the demographic transition.

“By 2050 Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean will be where Europe and North America are today,” Zlotnik told IPS.

Africa stands out as the only region whose population is still relatively young.

Population aging is less advanced in developing countries, according to the estimates. However, in developing countries as a whole, just eight percent of the population is today aged 60 years or over, but by 2050, 20 percent is expected to be in that age range.

Fertility has reached below-replacement levels in 28 developing countries, including China, according to the estimates.

Zlotnik told reporters that she was surprised that by 2050 Mexico would have a declining population, brought about by decreasing fertility, increased mortality and migration.

“Developing countries will have to increasingly invest in the young,” according to Zlotnik.

The U.N. estimates that the number of children in the developing world – about two billion – will maintain itself until mid-century.

Developing countries are doing a lot to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of universal primary education by 2015, but they have a long way to go, Zlotnik said.

There will have to be increased investment in health care and social services as well, Zlotnik added.

Realisation of the U.N. projections is contingent on ensuring that fertility continues to decline in developing countries.

Fertility in the developing world is expected to drop from 2.75 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.05 in 2045-2050, according to the estimates. The reduction in the group of least developed countries is even sharper – from 4.63 children per woman to 2.5.

“To achieve such reductions, it is essential that access to family planning expands to the poorest countries,” stressed Zlotnik.

The new population estimates assume that this investment in family planning will take place.

The new projections “are yet another wake-up call to the urgency of giving couples the means to exercise their human right to freely determine the sizes of their families,” said Obaid.

Access to family planning could decide if the world adds 2.5 billion or 5 billion people to its population by 2050, according to the new estimates.

If growth remains unchecked, the world will add about 5 billion people, nearing 12 billion by 2050, with the less developed nations’ population increasing to 10.6 billion, instead of 7.9 billion.

“Currently, about 200 million women in these countries lack access to safe and effective contraceptive services,” said Obaid.

“Funding for family planning must be increased to meet the needs of these women, not only to determine the world’s future, but also to prevent unintended pregnancies and reduce maternal and infant death,” Obaid stressed.

“The projections should remind leaders of their 2005 World Summit commitment to provide universal access to reproductive health by 2015, including family planning, to free women from unintended childbearing and empower them to help reduce poverty,” said Obaid.

The new population report also makes projections on population aging and other trends that are mostly prevalent in developed countries.

Between 2005 and 2050, half of the increase in the world population will be accounted for by a rise in the population aged 60 years or over, whereas the number of children under 15 years will decline slightly.

In the more developed regions, the population aged over 60 will nearly double – from 245 million in 2005 to 406 million in 2050.

The total population of more developed regions is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion.

According to the new estimates, developed countries’ populations would have declined by 2050 were it not for projected increases in migration from developing countries – averaging 2.3 million persons annually.

“No country will make policy changes with regard to immigration based on simply replacement migration,” Zlotnik told IPS. Replacement migration refers to the international migration that would be needed to offset declines in the size and age of a country’s population.

“However, certain countries are exploring temporary or seasonal immigration of both skilled and unskilled workers to bolster their tourism or agricultural industry,” Zlotnik said.

“Rich nations concerned with too-low fertility should emulate neighbours that have successfully introduced family-friendly policies to make careers and parenthood more compatible,” Obaid said. These policies include flexible work schedules, paid parental leave, and the provision of day-care services, as recommended by the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development.

“Rich nations should create an environment that makes it easier for men and women to combine parenthood and careers. No one should be forced to choose one or the other,” Obaid stressed.