TURKEY: New Pitfalls on the Road to EU

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Hilmi Toros

ISTANBUL, Dec 5 2006 (IPS) - On its long and winding road to becoming the first Muslim nation of the European Union, Turkey’s accession talks are heading towards a breakdown. The question is whether there will be a minor collision or a major crash that could eventually derail its membership bid.

Whatever happens, both the EU and Turkey have run into an estrangement, with the growing likelihood that Turkey, which became an associate member of the EU back in 1963, may end up permanently engaged but never married to EU.

The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, recommended a temporary freezing last week of negotiations on eight of 35 subjects (‘chapters’) that need to be settled before membership can be granted. The Commission’s advice will be taken up by EU foreign ministers Dec. 11 and the European Council, composed of heads of governments, Dec. 14-15.

“We confirm these negotiations must continue, although at slower pace,” EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn said after the Commission’s recommendation. “There will be no train crash. There is a slowing down because of works further down the tracks.”

The apparent impasse is over Cyprus, an EU member since 2004 but effectively an island divided between Greek Cypriots in the south and Turkish Cypriots in the north. The Greek side is internationally recognised as the sole legitimate government representing the entire island, while the north has recognition only from Turkey.

Turkey refuses to recognise the Greek administration, and has stood firm on not opening its ports and airports to Greek Cypriots despite a pledge to open them to all EU members.

Turkey says it will open its ports to Greek Cypriots ships and planes if the EU follows up on its pledge to ease the economic isolation of Turkish Cyprus, allowing direct trade and air links. That, in turn, is being blocked by Greece.

The EU pledged to assist the Turkish side after Cypriot Turks voted in favour of an EU-backed UN plan for reunification of the island in April 2004. The Greek side, sure of entry into the EU regardless of the outcome of a referendum on unification, voted against.

The island has been divided since 1974 when Turkey invaded the northern part of Cyprus in response to a coup bent on uniting the island with Greece.

While much is made of the Cyprus impasse, the feeling in Turkey is that this is merely a pretext by its opponents to keep Turkey out of the EU. These opponents are identified in the Turkish media as the Cyprus government, Greece, France, Austria and The Netherlands. Britain, Spain, Italy and Sweden are portrayed as preferring a softer approach to Turkey.

With a population of 73 million, Muslim Turkey is also seen as too big – and too poor – for the EU to swallow and digest, amid fears of mass migration of Turkish workers. The Turkish government argues that Turkey’s entry would make the EU a stronger actor on the world stage, supply a young workforce to ageing Europe, and signal an alliance rather than a clash of civilisations in turbulent times.

“The Turkish public sees the ports dispute with Greek Cyprus as just a pretext that certain EU member countries are using,” Yasar Yakis, head of the Turkish Parliament’s committee on EU affairs said at a news conference in London last week.

“Basically, it’s the culture issue,” says Istanbul resident Sevim Candan. “We have a rich culture, and they don’t respect it. Whenever we give in, they want more.”

Analyst Yuksel Soylemez wrote in the main national daily Hurriyet that pro-EU sentiment has fallen from 78 to 32 percent in the past two years. Those in favour of the EU were likely to be big business involved in trade with the EU, intellectuals and urban dwellers.

Turks appear dismayed over the EU Commission’s recommendation, but Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said the government is determined to carry on with it policy of full EU membership as opposed to the “privileged partnership” proposed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The view from Turkey is that worse could have happened – and still could. EU foreign ministers and heads of state could revise the Commission’s recommendations as Turkey pushes for fewer subjects to be frozen. The sectors to be frozen are free movement of goods, the right to establish a business and freedom to provide services, financial services, agriculture, fisheries, transport policy, customs union and foreign relations. These matters will not be negotiated just yet, the European Commission decided.

Efforts are under way to end the Cyprus impasse. Finnish Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen visited Turkey Friday last week to persuade Turkish leaders to be more accommodating over Cyprus, but to no avail. Erdogan said after his meeting with Vanhanen that “I believe the EU leaders will act with common sense, and not let a member country (Cyprus) hijack our accession process.”

The Turkish government has reasons to appear to take a strong position as it faces a general election within the next 11 months at a time when nationalist fervour is on the rise.

If EU-Turkey talks are suspended, there may actually be relief in both camps. France and Germany have already proposed that talks be put on ice for 18 months, thus removing the ‘the Turkish question’ from internal politics, including the French presidential elections next year.

And in Turkey, five former foreign ministers are advocating a break in talks for reflection. It looks now like a ‘trial separation’ in the face of stormy times that make marriage appear uncertain.