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POLITICS-JAPAN: Peace Vote Will Decide ‘Battle of Okinawa’

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Nov 17 2006 (IPS) - Over the past month, Ayano Takaesu, 52, and her husband, Jiro, have allowed the income from the fair-trade shop they run in Okinawa to drop drastically as they devote much of their time campaigning in the run up to the Okinawa gubernatorial election on Sunday.

”Nothing is more important at this time than ensuring that Okinawa has a new governor who will ensure that we can have a future free of the United States military imposed on us by the central government,” explained Takaesu as she jumped into a campaign van about to tour Naha, the capital of Okinawa, Japan’s most southern island.

At stake in the Okinawan gubernatorial election is the future of a beefed up U.S.-Japan military alliance that revolves around the construction of a new U.S. air station that will dominate the pristine coastline of Nago – when the present base is relocated from Futemma, a densely populated area.

Tokyo and Washington are keen to go ahead with the construction despite opposition in Okinawa on environmental grounds as well as the public’s simmering discontent with the U.S. bases.

There is pressure on Tokyo to go ahead with the new base to allay fears that the Japan-US Security Pact is in jeopardy. An anti-base governor could see the relocation of U.S. servicemen to Guam but still not keep Okinawa free of a military presence.

Home to half of U.S. military bases hosted by Japan, Okinawa is facing a race that analysts say has narrowed down to two candidates – Hirokazu Nakaima, a former bureaucrat supported by the conservative, ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Keiko Itokazu, a former Upper House member who has the strong backing of activists and opposition political parties.

Getting the U.S. bases off the island is an issue for the 1.3 million-strong population, firstly because the bases occupy more than 20 percent of available land. Indeed it is on the agenda of both candidates but they have different strategies. Itokazu’s strategy blankly rejects the new relocation base proposal by Tokyo while Nakaima is talking of a compromise formula.

‘’Do we chose to take the road of war by allowing the U.S. bases to stay in the prefecture permanently?” asks Itokazu, an elegant woman who also worked as a ‘peace bus guide’ telling tourists of the bloody battle of Okinawa during the closing days of World War ll.

Itokazu has a her own party, the Okinawa Shakai Taishuto, or Okinawa Social Mass Party and has served as an Okinawa prefectural assembly member for three, four-year terms.

Nevertheless, opinion polls conducted so far indicate a close race. Nakaima, 67, who is campaigning on a platform that promises to revitalise the local economy, has touched a sensitive chord with voters who face eight percent unemployment or double the figures for Tokyo.

Experts point out that the appeal to bring economic revitalisation is clever and strengthens Nakaima’s argument that voting for him will ensure more financial support from Tokyo given his political backing as well as businesses.

But this stance can still be shaken as the key to the election results, say analysts, is in the hands of almost 30 percent of voters who have indicated they remain undecided till the last moment.

‘’Undecided voters can could sway the result on Sunday,” Prof. Manabu Sato, international relations expert at Okinawa International University, told IPS.

Sato predicts a close fight. He explains that if Nakaima wins the stakes are not good for Okinawans who are tired of being forced to bear the noise, harassment and the constant threat of facing war as long as the U.S. military bases continue to occupy their land.

‘’Moreover, I really don’t see how Nakaima, despite his close ties to the LDP will be able to bring long standing economic support for Okinawa given the pressure to reduce national spending in Tokyo against the huge fiscal deficit,” he said.

If voters elect Itokazu, experts forecast a period of long tussles between Okinawa and the government given her position.

Tokyo has also darkly hinted at passing special laws to transfer power to the central government to permit the construction of the bases which, according to Sato, will be deeply resented in Okinawa.

Prof. Rei Shiratori, director of the Institute of Political Studies in Tokyo, explains that the upcoming election can only be understood against the bitter history that has marked Okinawa’s relations with mainland Japan.

He points to the end of World War ll when 200,000 Okinawans lost their lives in the only land battle fought between Japanese and U.S. troops on Japanese soil.

More civilians than Japanese soldiers died in the conflict known as the ‘typhoon of steel’ that raged for control of the tiny sub-tropical island that is located closer to Taipei than Tokyo.

”The war backdrop has resulted in a deep hatred for war and a pledge among the local people to never entertain war again which is why the election on Sunday is so important. It is not unreasonable to see Itokazu win,” said Shiratori.

 
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