IRAQ: Hopes of a Solution Recede by the Day

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Mohammed A. Salih

ARBIL, Nov 28 2006 (IPS) - The latest upsurge of violence in Iraq comes as a big blow to the slim remaining hopes of ending violence.

Many in the war-torn country fear that the sectarian attacks of last week could trigger waves of violence similar to those that arose from the bombing of the Shia holy shrine in Samarra, 125 km north of Baghdad, in February this year. Shias accused Sunni extremists loyal to al-Qaeda of the attack.

Those bombings marked a turning point in Shia-Sunni strife. On Feb. 23, the day after the bombings, more than 150 people were killed in reprisal attacks. Ever since then, blindfolded, bullet-ridden bodies dumped on streets have become a common sight in Iraq.

The al-Askari golden dome mosque of Samarra is revered by Shias because two Shia imams are buried there. According to Shia beliefs, Imam al-Mahdi, or ‘the hidden Imam’, the last Shia Imam, is thought to have disappeared from here, and will reappear later to rescue believers.

In the worst attacks on a single day since the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, more than 200 Shias were killed in Sadr city last Thursday. The area is home to supporters of the young cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

It is mainly Shia-dominated Iraqi forces who provide security in Sadr city, though U.S. troops sometimes move in to hunt down suspects. There are currently 140,000 U.S. troops in Iraq mainly stationed in and around the capital and the so-called Sunni triangle, which stretches from Baghdad to the west and northwest of the capital.

Scores of retaliatory attacks followed the killings last week, by both Shia militias and Sunni insurgents. In one incident signifying the extent of brutality, six Sunni worshipers were burnt alive after prayers last Friday before terrified people and Iraqi soldiers who did nothing to stop the attackers.

The capital Baghdad was placed under curfew, and the international airport closed for three days. But lifting of the curfew meant that armed groups resumed attacks on civilians.

People are reported be living in a terrified state. Many say they are afraid to sleep for fear of revenge attacks.

Baghdad is clearly seeing the worst of the violence and unrest. According to figures released by the United Nations, of the 7,054 people killed in Iraq during September and October, 4,984 were from Baghdad.

UN chief envoy in Iraq Ashraf Ghazi has warned that random acts of violence are “tearing apart the very political and social fabric of Iraq.”

Shias, a Muslim group who believe Prophet Muhammad designated his nephew Imam Ali to lead the Islamic community after his death, make around 60 percent of Iraq’s population of about 25 million. Sunnis, who believe the Prophet did not appoint anyone to replace him, make around 20 percent of the population. Kurds make up most of the rest. They include both Shias and Sunnis, but hold together ethnically as Kurds.

Up until the fall of the Saddam regime in 2003 Sunnis were the traditional rulers of Iraq, but Shias are now in control in the national government. The government is seen as backing Shia militias, and this has led to a widening rift between Shias and Sunnis.

The new round of bloodshed has dashed some hopes that had arisen of a rescue plan. Neither the new Iraqi police nor the U.S. forces are able to contain the killings any more.

“I think there is no need to say Iraq has become very dangerous, it’s already a fact on the ground,” Niaz Rauf, 31, a university graduate from Arbil told IPS. “These new bombings have taken the country into a more dangerous stage.”

Not many believe that the United States can do much, despite claims by the Democrats that they will seek solutions. “Essential issues like troops withdrawal from Iraq and fundamental policy shifts were mainly electoral material used by the Democrats, rather than issues on their real political agenda,” Abdul-Salam Barwari, head of the independent Democratic Human Rights Research Centre (DHRC) in Arbil told IPS.

Barwari believes that “America had not prepared itself for the post-war situation from the beginning,” and this set the ground for the eruption of violence.

“I don’t think that this is a real sectarian war between Shias and Sunnis,” he said. He blamed elements loyal to former president Saddam Hussein of inciting violence with the hope to returning to power. Barwari cited the 1968 coup by Saddam’s Baath Party – which brought the party back to power following defeat in 1963 – as an example of the Baathists’ ability to regroup.

Meanwhile, disputes continue inside and outside Iraq on how to describe the current situation. Some are keen to say that Iraq is already in “a state of undeclared civil war”; others speak of “chaos” and “unprecedented violence.”

Refusing to call it a “civil war”, Methal al-Alusi, head of the secular Iraqi People Party – whose main power base is in Baghdad – said the situation in Iraq has reached “a sensitive and fragile stage.”

“Parliamentary blocs don’t trust each other, the Iraqi public don’t trust the political elites, and this means that the policies to run the country have reached a deadlock,” Alusi, member of the Iraqi parliament, who lost two of his sons in an attack in 2004, told the pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat.

“If the situation is not resolved quickly, then the storm of terror will not only destroy Iraq but will also spread to the rest of the world.”