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POLITICS: South Korean Foreign Minister Likely Next U.N. Chief

Thalif Deen

UNITED NATIONS, Oct 2 2006 (IPS) - South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon, who consistently led a field of seven candidates, is most likely to be the new secretary-general of the United Nations, come January next year.

At the fourth and final straw poll held Monday, the South Korean candidate garnered 14 out of 15 votes in the Security Council.

Traditionally, the winner is expected to receive nine positive votes – and no vetoes from any of the five permanent members: the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia.

Since the single vote he failed to clinch was not from a veto-wielding permanent member, Ban is expected to be formally elected the new secretary-general – provided there are no dramatic changes in the voting pattern next week.

Ambassador Kenzo Oshima of Japan, current president of the Security Council, told reporters that a formal vote will be held next week – giving time for other candidates, who polled low, to either withdraw from the race, or if they choose, to stay in the race.

Since Monday’s vote was a “straw poll”, Oshima said, “it was not necessarily the final voting position” of the 15 members of the Security Council.

But since the South Korean candidate has ranked number one in all four straw polls, sustaining his lead (14-1 and 13-2), it is very unlikely he will lose ground next week.

The other candidates vying for the job were: U.N. Under-Secretary-General Shashi Tharoor of India; Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga; former Afghan Foreign Minister Ashraf Ghani; Jordanian Ambassador Prince Zeid Raad al-Hussein; and Thai Deputy Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai. A seventh candidate, former Sri Lankan Ambassador Jayantha Dhanapala, dropped out of the race last week.

The 15 members were given three voting options on the candidates: “encourage”, “discourage”, and “no opinion.”

The breakdown of Monday’s straw poll was as follows: Ban Ki-moon (14: 0:1); Tharoor (10:3:2); Vike-Freiberga (5:6:4); Surakiart (4:7:4); Ghani (4:11:0); and Zeid (2:8:5).

Some of the “discourage” votes received by the other five candidates – with the exception of Ban who only drew a single “no opinion” vote – could possibly be vetoes ruling them out as potential winners.

Ambassador Wang Guangya, China’s permanent representative, told reporters that Ban will be the Security Council’s nominee.

“It is quite clear from today’s straw poll that Ban Ki-moon is the candidate that the Security Council will recommend to the General Assembly,” he said.

Traditionally, the Council recommends a single candidate as secretary-general. The recommendation has to be approved by the 192-member General Assembly.

U.S. Ambassador John Bolton told reporters that new candidates could still come forward before next week’s final elections. But he said he would be surprised if any did, so late in the race.

Tharoor, who consistently held onto the second position, announced his withdrawal from the race. He gave credit to Ban for holding onto his lead right through all four straw polls.

Phyllis Bennis, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Institute of Policy Studies, told IPS that U.N. prestige and legitimacy have been challenged by years of U.S. domination.

And even in the best of times, the secretary-general rarely has actual power to drive specific U.N. policies to fruition, she pointed out.

“What the secretary-general does have is the bully pulpit. To restore the weakened credibility and legitimacy of the global organisation, the new secretary-general must be prepared to stand up to U.S. efforts to either instrumentalise the U.N. as a tool of American foreign policy, or to sideline or marginalise the organisation,” said Bennis, a longtime U.N. analyst and author of several books on the United Nations.

That means a secretary-general willing to speak out forcefully, to claim her or his place at the centre of global debates.

“Standing up to the United States these days means standing up to the formidable and intimidating John Bolton – and unfortunately Ban Ki-moon, a soft-spoken career diplomat with a Harvard degree in public administration, seems unlikely to play that role,” she said.

A further problem, of course, may arise in crucial U.N. decisions regarding nuclear issues.

“Will Ban Ki-moon, who has played a major role representing Seoul in nuclear talks with North Korea and at times disagreed with Washington’s approach, be willing to challenge Washington hardliners on Iran when they call for a U.N. endorsement of harsh sanctions or even war?” Bennis asked.

Meanwhile, in an interview with IPS last week, Ban said the most serious issue facing the United Nations is the credibility gap resulting from the organisation’s inability to handle the complexities of the issues it faces.

“The initiatives currently being debated demand not only the creation of new organisational structures within the U.N., but also a general improvement in services through reform of the operational methods of its various agencies,” he said.

Member states need to modernise the U.N. system and its working methods so that the world body can better address new threats and challenges that differ from those of the time the charter was drawn up 60 years ago, he added.

“To cope with these fresh threats effectively, it is vital that the Security Council, which holds primary responsibility for maintaining peace and security, be able to adjust to a rapidly-changing global security environment,” Ban added.

What the United Nations needs, he argued, is greater determination on the part of the member countries to restore its authority and efficiency.

“The member countries need to rededicate themselves to larger causes beyond their narrowly defined national interests. And efforts to restore the vitality of the organisation must continue.”

To this end, he noted, it is imperative to restore the U.N.’s moral standing and accountability through institutional reform and changes to the organisation’s working culture.