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ENERGY-BRAZIL: Growth Without Guzzling

Mario Osava

RIO DE JANEIRO, Sep 21 2006 (IPS) - The rise in energy consumption in Brazil has always outstripped gross domestic product growth, but this can and should be reversed in favour of sustainable development, according to experts, who say the benefits, including financial gains, would be enormous.

This possibility was described in the “Sustainable Power Sector Vision 2020” report, sponsored by WWF-Brazil and prepared by scientists with the International Energy Initiative (IEI) and at the State University of Campinas, 100 kilometres from Sao Paulo.

Brazil could create eight million new jobs, prevent forest flooding, save the equivalent of 15 billion dollars and earn 2.5 billion dollars in carbon credits by 2020 if the government adopts a vigorous policy of energy efficiency and use of renewable energy sources, without sacrificing economic growth, the report states.

The experts arrived at these estimates by comparing the “current trend scenario”, based on the present economic and energy policies of the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva administration, with the “sustainable electricity scenario” which combines reducing energy wastage and using more alternatives to fossil fuels, all for the period 2004-2020.

Forecasts of economic growth of 4.02 percent a year were used in both scenarios. For the “current trends” scenario, electricity generation capacity would have to grow by five percent a year, from 92,000 megawatts (in 2004) to 204,000 megawatts by 2020.

In contrast, the “sustainable” scenario would require an expansion of generation capacity of only two percent a year, to 126,000 megawatts in 2020.

This way, the construction of large new hydroelectric plants can be avoided, especially in the Amazon region where dams would destroy biodiversity by flooding the rainforest, and also more thermoelectric generating plants, which burn fossil fuels and emit greenhouse gases, the research report says.

Part of the money saved, according to the experts’ plan, should be invested in renewable sources of energy, such as wind, solar and biomass energy generation and small hydroelectric plants, increasing their share of total energy capacity to 20 percent by 2020. This would create eight million new jobs, they predict.

Curbing emissions of greenhouse gases could be worth 2.5 billion dollars in the market created by the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, which obliges industrialised countries to reduce their emissions and allows them to fulfil part of their targets by buying “carbon credits” from developing countries.

But dissenting voices have been raised in the State. The idea that economic growth is possible “without expanding the supply of electrical energy” by building more generating plants is “an anti-development utopia,” said Mauricio Tolmasquín, president of the state Energy Research Company (EPE) which advises the Ministry of Mines and Energy.

More trenchant criticism has come from some business and technical leaders in the energy sector, who predicted an energy crisis within three or four years if hydroelectric plants, especially in the Amazon jungle region, which have been delayed because of environmental regulations, are not built soon.

Environmentalists believe that the conflict between development and the environment is a false dilemma, because the aim is to make the economy itself more sustainable. Experts like Jayme Buarque, director general of the National Institute for Energy Efficiency (INEE), one of the non-governmental organisations associated with the WWF-Brazil study, agree.

The report forms part of an initiative by the international network of WWF organisations, which is drawing up similar proposals to cut back on the most polluting energy sources in 16 countries, most of them in the industrialised world.

The “sustainable scenario” for Brazil may contain “some exaggerations,” but in general “it is viable in the long term,” Buarque told IPS. The energy crisis in 2001 showed that power was wasted, and that it was possible to limit consumption considerably, he said.

In May 2001, the deficit in electricity generating capacity led the government at that time to impose rationing for nine months. It adopted a combination of measures to stimulate efficiency and to penalise households and companies that failed to meet the target of reducing consumption by 20 percent. Households saved even more than the specified target.

That campaign was improvised, and its success was due to simple habit changes and obvious common sense measures, such as renewing some refrigeration equipment. A planned and more thoroughgoing programme could achieve better results, Buarque concluded.

As for alternatives, improved use of cane sugar waste alone could boost electricity generation by 10 to 15 percent. This is “a neglected energy source” due to mistakes in government policy on renewable sources, he said.

Another Brazilian, and also Argentine, mistake is the use of natural gas as a vehicle fuel, which is extremely inefficient, as only 13 percent of its total energy is effectively used, he complained. Industrial use of natural gas with co-generation of electricity can effectively use up to 80 percent of its potential energy, he added.

The report by energy efficiency experts, like those who worked together at the IEI, is important as a means of “provoking” discussion and reflection on an issue that is crucial for development and for the global climate, Buarque said.

The initiative seeks to avoid a situation in which Brazil, “a reference point in international negotiations” on climate change and a keen user of “clean energy,” might accentuate its trend towards giving priority to fossil fuels as it diversifies its energy production capability, explained Denise Hamu, secretary general of WWF-Brazil.