AFGHANISTAN: Develop the Place, For Everyone’s Sake

By Sanjay Suri Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Sanjay Suri

LONDON, Jan 24 2006 (IPS) - A new push for the development of Afghanistan – and to improve security in the country – comes in response at least as much to the needs of Western countries as of Afghanistan.

The London conference on Afghanistan Jan. 31 and Feb. 1 will draw about 60 delegations, mostly countries but also some multilateral agencies such as the World Bank. It is being co-chaired by the British government, the Afghan government and the United Nations.

That co-chairing is symbolic. It means that the British move is seen to involve the Afghan government, and have international legitimacy. The co- chairing is being underlined by the presence at the conference of British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, and United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

Through the conference, as through international initiatives for Afghanistan so far, development for Afghanistan is of interest particularly in so far as it translates into security for the West, besides Afghanistan itself.

The reason for the British initiative is clear: to progressively reduce space within Afghanistan for terrorist groups to operate. Which means that it will never be enough for the internationally-backed Karzai government to control just Kabul. Far too many areas within Afghanistan are outside the control of government and international security forces within Afghanistan.

The new push in Afghanistan seeks to cover these areas in two ways: physically and developmentally. Physically through extending the control of security forces into regions outside their control at present, and secondly, to cover the areas under physical control with development initiatives that would seek to preclude any revival of the Taliban or of Islamist extremism.

The British offer impressive statistics on progress on both these tracks. Over the first phase of the Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration process, DDR as it has come to be called, about 62,000 men from known armed militias have been disarmed.

About 60,000 of them have been absorbed into official security or other groups. Control has been extended into several regions outside of Kabul, particularly in the north of the country. The situation remains more volatile in the troubled south.

On the development track within these areas, the statistics seem impressive at face value: an economy that grew 16 percent in 2003, 8 per cent in 2004 (with a fall in growth said to be due to weather conditions), 28,000 Afghans trained as policemen, the return of six million children to school, 37 percent of them girls and with about a third of the teachers women, the return of about four million refugees, and signs of freedom in a new media.

Much of this has been supported by an input of about 15 billion dollars from the international community since 2001.

Statistics of this kind can never be on the ground exactly what officials claim them to be, but there is little doubt that foreign forces have had far better luck in Afghanistan than in Iraq, though Afghanistan has seen growing signs of violence described variously as terrorism and insurgency.

The security push by international forces, North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) troops and by the newly assembled government forces is being described now as more counter-insurgency than counter- terrorism.

The claimed difference is that counter-terrorism is security activity aimed at locating and taking out terrorist groups, while counter- insurgency is creating a security environment within a region that makes normal activity possible – in the process also of eliminating terrorist threats wherever located or encountered.

Much of this is of clear interest to the West. And that has meant that the ‘compact’, the statement of the conference, has been prepared principally in London. Karzai is expected only to approve it. This ‘compact’ is expected to provide the international framework for international involvement in Afghanistan over the next five years.

The conference has not been billed as an aid conference, but cash pledges are expected from several of the rich countries that will be attending. These are expected to fund the Provisional Reconstruction Teams (PRT) charged with local reconstruction work in Afghanistan.

In their new phase, these teams are to be sent to new areas in the bid to cover all of Afghanistan with a safety net.

But uncertainty remains over both security and reconstruction teams. The United States has announced a reduction of its forces in Afghanistan. The Dutch government too has expressed doubts over the continuation of deployment in Afghanistan.

Some of the optimism over Afghanistan arises over the relatively better position in relation to Iraq. The recent upswing of attacks on foreign and security forces has been seen as just a blip. The Taliban is not seen to have popular support, in relation to insurgent groups acting in Iraq. Seen from the West, Afghanistan looks a hopeful place – when compared to Iraq.