PORTUGAL: Experts Predict Worst Drought in 300 Years

By Mario de Queiroz Reprint | | Print |

Mario de Queiroz

LISBON, Apr 15 2005 (IPS) - April showers bring May flowers, according to the old proverb. But this year in Portugal, April showers are desperately needed to prevent what could develop into the country’s worst drought in 300 years.

Portugal is in the grip of a drought so severe that if the current lack of rain continues, the country will be facing a catastrophic phenomenon repeated every 300 years in its northern region and every 135 years in the south.

And even if precipitation returns to normal levels between April and September, the country will still be plagued by a less severe drought, a pattern that tends to run on a 40-year cycle.

These were the main conclusions reached in a report released this week by the National Water Institute (INAG), which added that the problem has now reached even more serious proportions than expected in February, when experts were predicting the worst drought in a century.

The INAG report noted that thanks to the rains that fell in northern Portugal last month, 26 percent of that part of the country was experiencing "slight drought" as of Mar. 31, while the rest of the country fell into the categories of "severe" or "extreme" drought.

Two weeks before the precipitation that fell in the last 10 days of March, a full 88 percent of Portugal – which has a total area of 89,000 square kilometres and a population of 10.2 million – was suffering from severe or extreme drought conditions.

The director of the Centre for Rural Engineering Studies at the Higher Institute of Agronomy, Luis Santos Pereira, continues to deny that the current situation is a result of climate change, although he admits that this phenomenon "does have an influence on the patterns of precipitation, flooding and droughts over the long and medium term."

The hardest hit victim until now has been agriculture, where losses were calculated at one billion euros (around 1.3 billion dollars) as of Mar. 19, although according to updated estimates, that figure is now a full 50 percent higher.

The Portuguese Farmers Confederation calculates that the effects of this persistent drought could cost between two and three percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), which totals just over 130 billion euros (169 billion dollars).

The Portuguese population has also paid a high cost as a result of whopping increases in the prices of fruits and vegetables, although there are signs that some are using the tragedy as an opportunity to boost their profits.

"As far as I know, there’s no drought in Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Morocco or South Africa, but the big distributors and supermarkets have taken advantage of the situation to hike up the prices of fruits and vegetables imported from those countries," economic analyst Aníbal de Freitas commented to IPS.

The energy industry has also been hit hard by the drought. To compensate for the drastic drop in output by hydropower plants and the minimal contribution made by wind power, there has been no other alternative than to turn to fossil fuels.

The effects were felt immediately. The average cost of electric power generation rose by 10 percent, due to the heavier reliance on coal, oil and natural gas. Up until February, Portugal depended on thermal plants for 56 percent of its electricity, but that figure has now risen to 86.7 percent.

The director of the National Electrical Grid, José Penedos, said that the power system has been able to respond successfully to the situation, but the greatest concern is that Portugal "is becoming increasingly dependent on fossil fuels."

The supply of water in the reservoirs used for the country’s hydroelectric plants is currently at 38 percent of capacity, "among the lowest levels in the last 50 years," said Penedos.

Incalculable damage is also being predicted for the forestry sector. While forest fires usually do not strike until the northern summer season, they have already begun to destroy stands of pine, eucalyptus and cork oak trees during the winter and spring, which are also seasons marked by high winds.

In addition to the environmental impact, the forest fires will also affect export revenues, since southern Portugal is home to 82 percent of the world’s cork oak trees, and the country accounts for 67 percent of international trade in the tree’s bark, which is the raw material for cork.

In the meantime, the National Meteorological Institute forecast for the next two weeks leaves little room for hope, at least in the near future: "clear skies, strong winds and rising temperatures, especially in the central and southern regions of the country."