MIDEAST: Without a Government, Lebanon Waits

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Peyman Pejman

BEIRUT, Mar 8 2005 (IPS) - Syrian President Bashar Assad’s announcement that Syria will soon pull back its troops from Lebanon may have eliminated some concerns about Syria’s overall plans, but has done little to solve its internal crisis.

In his speech before the parliament Assad said Syria’s estimated 14,000 troops in Lebanon will be pulled back to the Bekaa Valley near the Syrian border "soon" and then repositioned inside Syrian territory.

Many Lebanese have been calling for full and immediate withdrawal of Syrian troops and intelligence since the Feb. 14 assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri.

But in Beirut many Lebanese are still wondering when they will have a new government to replace the cabinet of Prime Minister Omar Karami who resigned under pressure Feb. 28.

The formation of a new cabinet is essential for many reasons.

Karami’s ministers are supposed to stay at work until a new cabinet is approved, but many are not expected to show up, affecting the services people count on receiving. Also, before the country can hold parliamentary elections, the cabinet needs to submit a new elections law, something Karami’s resigned government cannot do.

Former prime minister Selim Hoss, a conservative Sunni Muslim with close ties to Syria, has been mentioned as a possible successor to Karami after he unexpectedly traveled to Syria over the weekend.

Nizar Hamza, professor of political science at the American University in Beirut says there is no progress because the political factions and parties have neither engaged in sustained consultations between themselves nor met with President Emil Lahoud. "There is not much time actually to spend on consultation. So far, there seems to be a deadlock because side talks have not really made a breakthrough," Hamza told IPS. "By side talks I mean (talks between) various involved factions, coalition bodies and parliamentary blocs and so forth."

Hamza says the lack of consultations does not leave President Lahoud with many options.

"You are in abnormal and dangerous situation. If no consultation takes place, the only option is that he basically forms a government. I’d be inclined here to think of that first (as) an emergency government or it could be even called a military government," Hamza said.

The protesting mood of the Lebanese public and opposition leaders is unlikely to accept any military or civilian cabinet that is not willing to meet at least some of the far-reaching demands of the opposition.

Lahoud has already rejected one of the opposition’s main demands for the resignation of the top civilian and military intelligence chiefs, whom the opposition has accused of complicity or even a direct role in Hariri’s assassination.

There were unconfirmed reports in Beirut after Assad’s speech that the Syrian president will unilaterally shut down Syrian intelligence organisations in Lebanon in the coming weeks.

Nayla Moawadh, one of the opposition leaders, says the opposition is not under any illusion that Syria will give up its control of Lebanon without a fight. She also admits the opposition does not have a one-size-fits-all solution on dealing with Damascus.

"We will have to find the way. It is not either to be forceful or not to be forceful. It is to find the right way to reassure them of the future but to be very firm on the withdrawal matter," she told IPS. The 1989 Taif agreement brokered by Saudi Arabia ended almost 15 years of civil war in Lebanon, but also called for a departure of Syrian troops from Lebanon within two years. Opposition forces say Syria should do now what it promised 15 years ago.

Syria and its Lebanese allies have countered with two other arguments.

The first is the suggestion that a hasty Syrian departure might plunge Lebanon into civil strife again. Assad had said in his speech that those who want Syria out immediately should be prepared to send in force if instability rises again in Lebanon.

Hoss, too, said he had a blunt message for Washington when he met U.S. envoy David Satterfield in Beirut last week. "I said, ‘Please don’t throw us into another civil war. If any such thing should happen, God forbid, you cannot help us’."

The second argument is that those who push for Syrian withdrawal are willingly or unwillingly helping the United States – and Israel by proxy – to increase its influence in the Middle East. Lebanon, they argue, should not again become a playground for international politics.

Syria’s main ally in Lebanon, Hizbollah, made that argument Sunday.

Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbollah’s charismatic and respected leader, accused some Christian members of the opposition of working on behalf of Israel.

"Israeli newspapers have reported that some members of the opposition have contacted their allies in Israel discussing post-Syria Lebanon. This is a very serious matter. I am not accusing anyone but it is an issue that the opposition needs to respond to," Nasrallah told a press conference.

"I say here with honesty and openness that demands of the United States are 100 percent carbon copy of Israel’s plans for Lebanon," he added. Those plans, he said, are to disarm the Lebanese resistance groups such as Hizbollah, and destroy the movement.

"Syria needs Hizbollah as a major card in its future peace negotiations with Israel," said a Lebanese observer who asked not to be named. "Neither Assad nor any other Syrian leader can allow the United States or Israel to take the Hizbollah card away that easily."