RIGHTS-SOUTH ASIA: India in Royal Pickle Over Nepal

By Ranjit Devraj Reprint | | Print |

Ranjit Devraj

NEW DELHI, Feb 18 2005 (IPS) - King Gyanendra’s Feb. 1 ‘royal coup’ has presented Nepal’s big neighbour India with one of its biggest foreign policy challenges in recent times and one with no quick or easy resolution in sight, say analysts.

”This is an extremely complex situation and India needs to be very cautious in what it does or does not do,” Dipankar Banerjee, director of the well-respected, independent, think-tank Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) told IPS in an interview.

Banerjee, a former major general in the Indian army, said India has so far played it well by building up pressure in concert with the United States and Britain to encourage the king to restore democracy as a first step to tackling the Maoist insurgency in the country.

Although India wields far more clout in the world’s last Hindu kingdom than any other country, thanks to deep cultural ties and sheer geography, Banerjee felt that any attempt at direct intervention by India ”could be interpreted in twenty different ways.”

India worries that that the king, beleaguered in Kathmandu – by the Maoists who hold the countryside – and denied arms supplies by India and the western powers, could turn to its northern neighbour China or to Pakistan for support.

On Feb. 1, King Gyanendra said in a message to the nation that he took control of the country ”only to save democracy from communist rebels and corrupt politicians”.

The king then sacked the government of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, suspended civil liberties and imposed emergency rule – justifying the move as necessary to combat the Maoists who have fought since 1996 to replace the constitutional monarchy with a communist regime. Political leaders, students, human rights activists, journalists and trade unionists have been detained in the emergency.

For days following the royal takeover, Nepal’s communications links to the outside world were virtually severed. Landline phone links later resumed, though mobile phone service has remained disconnected.

But the landline phone service was shut off again Friday.

While India, the United States and Britain have opposed King Gyanendra’s move, security analysts fear the monarch is paving the way to veer towards China and Pakistan – both no champions of democracy.

”Pakistan may well try to get involved and see what it gains or loses from the situation,” said IPCS’s Banerjee adding that China has so far made no overt move. Unlike India and much of the world, Pakistan and China see the king’s action as an internal matter of Nepal.

Banerjee said what was truly worrisome was the human rights situation in Nepal, the arbitrary arrests of prominent people, the muzzling of the press and the shutting down of communications with the outside world.

”(Nepal’s former ambassador to India) Lok Raj Baral, the well-known academic, was here with me before he flew back to Kathmandu on Feb. 7. The next thing I hear is that he was picked up at the airport by the Royal Nepal Army (RNA),” he revealed.

India has suspended arms supplies to Nepal, which it is obliged to do under a 1965 treaty, but that could result in strengthening the Maoists who already outnumber and outgun the RNA.

”It is in nobody’s interests that the Maoists are allowed to create disorder and resort to irregular violence,” Banerjee said. Since the insurgency started in 1996, close to 11,000 Nepalis have lost their lives in the fighting between government forces and the Maoist rebels.

As seen from India, the king can either crush the Maoists militarily or get them to the negotiating table. But so far the second option has not worked.

India still believes in what New Delhi repeatedly refers to as ”the twin pillars of constitutional monarchy and parliamentary democracy” working for Nepal. But most political parties in Nepal have become disillusioned with the 12-year-old experiment, besides the Maoists who have sworn to abolish the monarchy,

According to Rajendra Mahto, general secretary of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party, currently living in exile in India, the one real problem with that arrangement is that the army reports to the king and the bulk of the officer corps are from elite families staunchly loyal to the monarch.

While this feudal setup disappeared a long time ago in other parts of the world, this tradition is still very much alive in Nepal – creating a super elite class that looks down on the bulk of the Himalayan country’s downtrodden.

Mahto pointed out that the primary cause of unrest in Nepal is that decades of receiving development assistance only resulted in the enrichment of the narrow elite that has excluded the bulk of the population from every opportunity to better themselves – thus creating a wide gap between the rich and poor.

”The Nepali Maoists are not angels but neither are they the devils,” Mahto told IPS.

”There must be human security for the ordinary Nepalis to safeguard their dignity. That’s completely missing in the country, so much so that Nepalis have to leave the country to search for menial jobs and Nepali women have to serve male clients in Indian brothels just to survive,” he added.

At least 10 million Nepalese are known to be working in several cities across India taking advantage of an open border and free travel between the two countries.

”The international community should know that far more fundamental changes are needed in Nepal than merely restoring constitutional monarchy which has been a complete failure as far as the people are concerned,” said Mahto.

India cannot but help notice that there are many voices that agree to some extent with Mahto’s views and these include Irene Khan, secretary general of the international human rights watchdog Amnesty International who led a mission to Nepal between Feb 10 and 16.

”The Maoists do respond to international pressure and are concerned about their image – they have apologised for killings and want to be seen as responsible (to the people),” Khan, currently in India, told IPS.

Khan’s views also reflected those expressed by Banerjee that the declaration of emergency and the unshackling of the army had worsened an already difficult situation and all but stymied moves for a politically negotiated settlement.

”The state of emergency has strengthened the hands of the security forces, reduced the prospects of a political process towards peace and increased the likelihood of an escalation of the conflict that could lead to even greater human suffering and abuse,” Khan said.

During her tour of Nepal that included the town of Nepalganj and Biratnagar, Khan said she came across truck drivers who had been threatened by the Maoists with the amputation of their hands if caught violating a blockade ordered since the weekend.

But equally, the truck drivers complained that the army had threatened them with amputation unless they plied their trucks, Khan said, by way of illustrating the bind ordinary Nepalis seem to be caught in.