Headlines, Human Rights, Latin America & the Caribbean

VENEZUELA: Referendum Decision Leaves Opposition at a Crossroads

Humberto Márquez

CARACAS, Mar 3 2004 (IPS) - The opposition movement in Venezuela is debating whether to accept a ruling by electoral authorities that would force people to come out and confirm at least 600,000 of the more than three million signatures collected for a recall referendum, or declare civil disobedience and seek other means to achieve its ultimate goal: the removal of President Hugo Chávez.

In talks brokered by the Organisation of American States (OAS), the U.S.-based Carter Centre and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the opposition and the government agreed in May 2003 to try to find a peaceful "electoral solution" to Venezuela’s political crisis.

But that possibility now depends on what the opposition movement decides to do.

Henry Ramos, the head of the Democratic Action party, the main opposition force, demanded Wednesday that the Democratic Coordinator, the coalition of 27 parties and 40 associations opposed to Chávez, decide what direction it plans to take.

"What are we going to do?" Ramos publicly asked his opposition allies. "Are we going to stay home, continue forward with the referendum process, or take to the streets?"

The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced Tuesday that only 1.8 million of the more than three million signatures gathered by the opposition are valid, while more than one million have been called into doubt.

At least 600,000 people would have to confirm their signatures to achieve the more than 2.4 million needed to convene the referendum.

"Either we try to achieve some conditions for continuing forward and getting the signatures confirmed, or we simply say we’re not going to continue. Then we would have to see just what direction we would take," said Ramos.

Since it came out a week ago that the CNE would not validate enough signatures to hold a referendum, thousands of anti-government activists have taken to the streets to set up roadblocks. Clashes between demonstrators and the militarised police in middle-class neighbourhoods in Caracas and other cities have left seven dead and dozens wounded, and led to numerous arrests.

More radical groups that do not form part of the Democratic Coordinator have continued protesting in the streets, invoking constitutional clauses on the right to civil disobedience. They are being egged on by the Democratic Bloc, which is made up of associations of retired anti-Chávez military officers.

As soon as the CNE announced its ruling, two Democratic Coordinator spokesmen, Julio Borges of the centre-right Justice First party, and Antonio Ledezma, said that "because a million signatures were stolen, we call on the people to continue their civic struggle in the streets throughout Venezuela."

They also asked the OAS and Carter Centre observers to intervene and ask the election authorities to rectify their decision.

"What the opposition is saying is unclear. The Coordinator must take one route or another, because what is at stake is keeping open the democratic route," Luis Salamanca, director of the Central University’s Institute of Political Studies, told IPS.

According to the political scientist, "the Democratic Coordinator could agree to go to the signature ‘repairs’ period, but only if it is not futile, a booby-trap, as the people in the street worry it might be."

The director of the Tal Cual newspaper, analyst Teodoro Petkoff, a former Chávez ally-turned outspoken critic, said the opposition could go in three different directions, the first of which would be to continue protesting in the streets until the CNE accepts the invalidated signatures. But, he wondered, "Is there a future in that?"

The second would be "to declare that the ‘repair’ period is not acceptable, which means there would be no referendum, and the game would be up. The OAS and Carter Centre would withdraw, because there would no longer be anything to observe," he said.

And the third option would be to "urge people to confirm their signatures, if the repair period is lengthened to a reasonable amount of time. That option must be considered without allowing our emotions to cloud our understanding. With 1,832,493 signatures already declared valid, only 600,000 would be needed to reach the necessary 2.4 million," said Petkoff.

Historian Jorge Olavarría, a Chávez opponent, said "the referendum is alive and democracy can be saved: verifying the signatures will be difficult, and will require organisation and a determination to win, but we have all of that and we must not allow ourselves to be caught up in pessimism and defeatism."

The CNE has stated that 2,700 tables will be set up at points around the country for two days, for people to come forward to confirm their signatures. But Súmate, the opposition group that coordinated the collection of signatures in November, says it will take more than two days.

A prominent opposition leader, Henrique Salas, Chávez’s rival in the 1998 presidential elections, openly rejected the idea of verifying signatures. "Our rights are nonnegotiable. It’s a question of pride. We have reached the limit and cannot retreat," he said.

"If the opposition accepts the signature repairs mechanism, its hands will be tied, making it impossible to turn to international bodies in the future against any new ruling or delay imposed by the electoral council," Salas said.

The OAS and Carter Centre issued a joint declaration recognising the CNE ruling – which was the result of a three-two vote by its five members – but criticising the decision to demand the confirmation of a number of signatures that is so large that it would affect the referendum process.

The main business association, Fedecámaras, which forms part of the opposition, criticised the CNE decision and announced that it would challenge it before the Supreme Court.

But the Democratic Coordinator is reluctant to turn to the courts because of the further delay that process would entail. "Besides being a slow route, it could end up being terminal, because a contrary decision would liquidate the possibility of a referendum," said political scientist Salamanca.

The opposition is in a hurry because if the referendum is held before Aug. 19 and Chávez loses, new presidential elections would have to be called, but if the referendum is held after that date, the vice-president, who was appointed by the president, would serve out Chávez’s term until January 2007, and Chávez could run for re-election in late 2006.

"The opposition has found itself in a position similar to the one it was in during the days that followed the April 2002 coup" that overthrew Chávez for two days, and the two-month general strike in late 2002 and early 2003, said Vice-President José Vicente Rangel.

The short-lived coup, lengthy general strike, shorter walkouts and numerous opposition protests all failed to topple Chávez.

In fact, opinion polls showed that he gained popular support after the coup and the business shutdown.

The most prominent leader of the Democratic Coordinator, Enrique Mendoza – the governor of the state of Miranda, which includes part of the capital and neighbouring eastern zones – has not appeared in public since the CNE announced its decision late Tuesday.

The CNE, representatives of the ruling party and the opposition, and OAS and the Carter Centre delegates continued negotiating a formula that would be acceptable for all with respect to the question of confirming signatures, said Ezequiel Zamora, one of the two pro-opposition members of the CNE.

"A space for dialogue has opened up. If it helps make the signature confirmation viable and ensures that the referendum is held – and for the sake of peace in Venezuela – I think it’s worth it," says Zamora.