NORTHAMPTON, 18 Aral\u0131k 2012 (IPS) – Barack Obama\u2019n\u0131n 2008\u2019de ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011fa se\u00e7ilmesinin hemen ard\u0131ndan, k\u00fcresel t\u0131p toplulu\u011funun y\u00fczlerce \u00fcyesi ona ve Rusya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Dimitri Medvedev\u2019e bir a\u00e7\u0131k mektup yazarak n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceliklerinin ilk s\u0131ras\u0131na yerle\u015ftirmelerini istediler.<\/p>\n
&com;Bu zor d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok say\u0131da aciliyet arz eden krizle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yas\u0131n\u0131z ama bu krizlerin tamam\u0131 bir n\u00fckleer sava\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nleme ihtiyac\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda silikle\u015fiyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda yapacaklar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu biny\u0131l sonra tamamen unutulmu\u015f olacak ama kimse n\u00fckleer sava\u015f tehlikesini ortadan kald\u0131ran liderleri unutmayacak. L\u00fctfen bizi yar\u0131 yolda b\u0131rakmay\u0131n.&com;<\/p>\n
Ne yaz\u0131k ki korktu\u011fumuz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve ekonomik kriz di\u011fer t\u00fcm meselelerin \u00fczerini \u00f6rtt\u00fc ve bug\u00fcne kadar Rusya ve ABD liderleri bizi yar\u0131 yolda b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Obama\u2019n\u0131n yeniden se\u00e7ilmesi d\u00fcnyay\u0131 n\u00fckleer silahs\u0131zlanma yoluna sokmak i\u00e7in ona yeni bir \u015fans verdi. Bu, harcanmamas\u0131 gereken bir olanak.<\/p>\n
2008\u2019den bu yana n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n bar\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 tehlikeler ile ilgili daha iyi bir anlay\u0131\u015fa sahip olduk. On y\u0131llard\u0131r ABD ve Rusya aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir sava\u015f\u0131n t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya i\u00e7in y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 insani sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. <\/p>\n
\u015eimdi, \u00f6rne\u011fin G\u00fcney Asya\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek \u00e7ok daha &com;k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131&com;, b\u00f6lgesel bir n\u00fckleer sava\u015f\u0131n dahi t\u00fcm insanl\u0131k i\u00e7in bir tehdit olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anl\u0131yoruz. Robock, Owen Brian Toon ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma arkada\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar, Hindistan ve Pakistan\u2019\u0131n 50\u2019\u015fer tane Hiro\u015fima\u2019da kullan\u0131lana e\u015fit boyutta bombay\u0131 \u2013t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyadaki 25 bin n\u00fckleer ba\u015fl\u0131ktan olu\u015fan n\u00fckleer cephanenin sadece binde 4\u2019\u00fc- di\u011fer \u00fclkenin \u015fehirlerine kar\u015f\u0131 kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir senaryoyu ele ald\u0131. Sonu\u00e7, kavrayabilece\u011fimizin \u00f6tesinde bir y\u0131k\u0131ma i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu senaryoya g\u00f6re patlamalar, ate\u015f kas\u0131rgalar\u0131 ve radyasyon ilk bir haftada 20 milyon insan\u0131 \u00f6ld\u00fcrecektir. Fakat bu senaryonun k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 daha da y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Ate\u015f kas\u0131rgalar\u0131 5 milyon ton k\u00fcr\u00fcm\u00fc atmosfere kald\u0131rarak g\u00fcne\u015f \u0131\u015f\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 bloke edecek ve on y\u0131l boyunca gezegenin ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 1,3 derece Celsius d\u00fc\u015fmesine neden olacakt\u0131r. Bu ani s\u0131cakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc; onun sonucu olarak ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n azalmas\u0131 ve ekim sezonunun k\u0131salmas\u0131, G\u00fcney Asya\u2019dan \u00e7ok uzakta bulunan b\u00f6lgelerde g\u0131da \u00fcretimini azaltacakt\u0131r. <\/p>\n
Mutlu \u00d6zdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re ABD\u2019nin m\u0131s\u0131r \u00fcretimi on y\u0131l boyunca y\u00fczde 12 azalacakt\u0131r. Lili Xia\u2019n\u0131n ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019de sezon ortas\u0131 pirin\u00e7 \u00fcretimi on y\u0131l boyunca y\u00fczde 15 d\u00fc\u015fecektir. Yak\u0131n zamanda yap\u0131lan \u00f6n ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar di\u011fer tah\u0131llar\u0131n \u00fcretiminde daha da k\u00f6kl\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya, g\u0131da \u00fcretiminde bu d\u00fczeyde bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ba\u015f etmeye haz\u0131r de\u011fil. D\u00fcnya tah\u0131l stoklar\u0131 halihaz\u0131rda sadece \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k t\u00fcketimi kar\u015f\u0131layacak seviyede ve bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere cevap veremez. Dahas\u0131, BM\u2019nin yak\u0131n zamanda a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilere g\u00f6re \u015fu anda d\u00fcnyada yetersiz beslenen 870 milyonluk bir n\u00fcfus var. Yeterli beslenen ancak g\u0131das\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funu ithal eden \u00fclkelerde ya\u015fayan ek 300 milyon ki\u015fi bulunuyor. Bu n\u00fcfusun tamam\u0131, yani 1 milyardan fazla insan bu &com;k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131&com; sava\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan a\u00e7l\u0131ktan \u00f6lme riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facak. <\/p>\n
ABD ve Rusya aras\u0131ndaki kapsaml\u0131 bir sava\u015f\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ysa \u00e7ok daha y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 olacak. Y\u00fcz milyonlarca insan do\u011frudan \u00f6lecek; dolayl\u0131 iklimsel etkiler \u00e7ok daha y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 olacak. K\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131k de\u011ferleri ortalama 8 derece d\u00fc\u015fecek; bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Kuzey Amerika i\u00e7lerinde ve Avro-Asya\u2019da 20 dereceyi a\u015facak. Kuzey Yar\u0131mk\u00fcre\u2019de \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l boyunca don ya\u015fanacak. G\u0131da \u00fcretimi durma noktas\u0131na gelecek ve insan \u0131rk\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc a\u00e7l\u0131ktan \u00f6lecek. <\/p>\n
So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n sonundan bu yana, b\u00f6ylesi bir sava\u015f\u0131n asla ya\u015fanmayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na g\u00f6re hareket ettik. Ama ya\u015fanabilir: iki n\u00fckleer s\u00fcper g\u00fcc\u00fcn elinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 bin n\u00fckleer sava\u015f ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 var; bunlar\u0131n 2 binden fazlas\u0131 di\u011fer \u00fclkenin \u015fehirlerini yar\u0131m saat i\u00e7inde yerle bir edecek \u015fekilde 15 dakikadan k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede f\u0131rlat\u0131labilecek f\u00fczelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak duruyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ve Rusya bu geni\u015f cephanelikleri ellerinde tuttuklar\u0131 s\u00fcrece, bu silahlar\u0131n kazaen ya da kasten kullan\u0131lma riski de ortada duruyor. 1979\u2019dan bu yana en az be\u015f kere \u00fclkelerden birinin yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131kla sald\u0131r\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu sanarak di\u011fer \u00fclkeye sald\u0131rmak i\u00e7in haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. Bu olaylar\u0131n en yak\u0131n\u0131 Ocak 1995\u2019te oldu. O g\u00fcn bizi n\u00fckleer sava\u015fa birka\u00e7 dakika kadar yakla\u015ft\u0131ran ko\u015fullar bug\u00fcn de fazla de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f de\u011fil. Bir daha bu yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131k oldu\u011funda, o kadar da \u015fansl\u0131 olmayabiliriz.<\/p>\n
Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck tehlikenin ay\u0131rt\u0131na varan 35 \u00fclke birle\u015ferek n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n ta ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ekim ay\u0131nda Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler\u2019de yeni bir giri\u015fimde bulundu. Uluslararas\u0131 K\u0131z\u0131l Ha\u00e7\/K\u0131z\u0131l Ay Hareketi de n\u00fckleer silahs\u0131zlanma \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131. Mart 2013\u2019te Norve\u00e7 h\u00fck\u00fcmeti N\u00fckleer Silahs\u0131zlanma Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019na taraf t\u00fcm devletleri davet etti\u011fi ve n\u00fckleer sava\u015f\u0131n insani sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n tart\u0131\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 bir konferans d\u00fczenleyecek. <\/p>\n
ABD ve Rusya bu giri\u015fimleri sahiplenerek n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in izlenebilir ve uygulanabilir bir anla\u015fmaya liderlik etmeli. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 kolay olmayacak ancak alternatifi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemez. K\u00fcresel g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131n\u0131n temeli olarak \u015fansa g\u00fcvenemeyiz. Bu silahlar\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rmazsak, bir g\u00fcn \u015fans\u0131m\u0131z yaver gitmeyecek, silahlar kullan\u0131lacak ve el \u00fczerinde tuttu\u011fumuz her \u015fey yok olacak. Olas\u0131l\u0131klar daha y\u00fcksek olamazd\u0131. (END\/COPYRIGHT IPS)<\/p>\n
* Ira Helfand N\u00fckleer Sava\u015fa Kar\u015f\u0131 Uluslararas\u0131 Doktorlar \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn e\u015fba\u015fkan\u0131 ve 1985 Nobel Bar\u0131\u015f \u00d6d\u00fcl\u00fc sahibi. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NORTHAMPTON, 18 Aral\u0131k 2012 (IPS) – Barack Obama\u2019n\u0131n 2008\u2019de ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011fa se\u00e7ilmesinin hemen ard\u0131ndan, k\u00fcresel t\u0131p toplulu\u011funun y\u00fczlerce \u00fcyesi ona ve Rusya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Dimitri Medvedev\u2019e bir a\u00e7\u0131k mektup yazarak n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceliklerinin ilk s\u0131ras\u0131na yerle\u015ftirmelerini istediler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":82,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-136","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-headlines"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipsnews.net\/turkce\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipsnews.net\/turkce\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipsnews.net\/turkce\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipsnews.net\/turkce\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/82"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipsnews.net\/turkce\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=136"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ipsnews.net\/turkce\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipsnews.net\/turkce\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=136"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipsnews.net\/turkce\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=136"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipsnews.net\/turkce\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=136"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}