A new whitepaper from Omega Law Group examines traffic patterns in the nation’s five most populous states and finds that while stay-at-home orders and remote work dramatically reduced traffic volume in 2020, riskier on-road behavior surged and kept fatal crashes stubbornly high even as miles driven dropped. The analysis spans 2019–2023 and draws on data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Transportation, and Insurance Information Institute.
The study focuses on California, Texas, Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania—home to more than one-third of Americans. Across those five states, 64,476 fatal crashes led to 69,944 deaths during the period. After the onset of COVID-19 in March 2020, Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) fell sharply nationwide—from 3.26 trillion miles in 2019 to 2.90 trillion in 2020 (-11%)—as commutes vanished and trips shortened. Average annual miles per driver dropped 10.8% (from 11,797 to 10,523).
Yet the retreat in traffic volume did not translate into safer outcomes. Fatal crashes rose in 2020 despite emptier roads, then peaked in 2021, the deadliest year of the five. The analysis attributes the spike to pandemic-era behavioral shifts: excessive speeding, impaired driving, distraction, and a documented dip in roadway enforcement. By 2023, total mileage had mostly recovered (3.25 trillion), but average miles per driver remained 3.3% below 2019, evidence of enduring hybrid work and localized travel habits.
“Remote work emptied the highways, riskier behavior refilled the danger,” said a spokesperson from Omega Law. “The data shows a lasting behavior shift that outlived lockdowns. Lower congestion bought us time; it didn’t buy us safety.”
Key Findings
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VMT & Driver Miles:
National VMT fell 11% in 2020, then rebounded gradually (2021: 3.13T; 2022: 3.20T; 2023: 3.25T). Average miles per driver followed the same arc and remained slightly below pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2023. -
Registered Vehicles:
Vehicle registrations dipped marginally in 2020 (-0.2%) but rose to 284.6M by 2023, signaling sustained reliance on personal vehicles even as transit patterns changed. -
Fatal Crash Pattern:
2019 was the safest baseline year of the period. Fatal crashes rose in 2020, surged in 2021, and declined in 2022–2023, but 2023 still sat 12.2% above 2019. -
Behavioral Drivers:
Alcohol-involved deaths climbed 34% from 2019 (4,353) to 2023 (5,833); 32% of all fatalities involved a driver at BAC ≥ .08. Speeding deaths jumped from 3,237 (2019) to 4,474 (2021) (- 38% in two years), easing slightly thereafter but remaining elevated. Distracted-driving deaths peaked in 2022 (1,106) and eased to 1,018 in 2023. -
Who, When, Where:
Men accounted for ~73% of fatalities (50,973). Ages 25–34 were most represented across alcohol, speeding, and distraction. Nighttime crashes comprised 58% of deaths; weekdays accounted for 67%, reflecting commuting and commercial flows. -
Economic Toll:
Direct crash costs and broader social harm rose steeply across the window, with 2022 losses estimated at $465B (direct) and $1.9T (societal), and 2023 injury-related costs at $513.8B.
The research suggests remote work muted what could have been an even larger surge in fatalities, particularly during peak rush hours, by reducing exposure. But it also shows that behavioral risks escalated: more speeding on emptier roads, increased substance use tied to pandemic stress, and technology-linked distraction. The study also flags an uptick in uninsured and underinsured motorists during 2020–2021, compounding the financial fallout of serious crashes.
“The ‘new normal’ on our roads is less about how much we drive and more about how we drive. “If agencies focus interventions where the risk concentrates, nighttime hours, weekdays, and young adult drivers, we can bend the curve faster.”
Implications & Recommendations
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Enforce at the risk peaks: Nighttime and weekday corridors, especially high-speed arterials.
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Double-down on impairment prevention: Targeted DUI deterrence where 25–44-year-old drivers cluster.
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Manage speed at scale: Automated enforcement and traffic-calming in proven hotspots.
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Distracted-driving tech policy: Hands-free mandates plus fleet policies for work-related travel.
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Resilience planning: Maintain hybrid-work gains with flexible hours that reduce peak congestion.
About the Whitepaper
The report analyzes crash, fatality, and traffic-volume trends (2019–2023) across CA, TX, FL, NY, and PA using CDC, Census, USDOT, and III data to identify peak danger periods, mileage changes, and at-risk demographics, informing future planning and preparedness for similar disruptions.