PHILIPPINES:
‘Running After President Arroyo Is Only Just’

by Stephen de Tarczynski interviews ALBERTO LIM, executive director of the Philippines’s premier business organisation

MANILA, Nov 2 (IPS) - Philippine political affairs are rarely straightforward. The former Spanish and U.S. colony, which also endured occupation under Japan during the Second World War, has experienced major upheavals since independence was finally achieved—and recognised, this time—in 1946.

Massive human rights abuses, censorship and corruption on an unprecedented scale occurred in the 1970s and 1980s under the dictatorship of then President Ferdinand Marcos while the decades-long insurgencies of communist guerrillas and Moro secessionists continue to claim lives.

The more-recent addition of militants like the Abu Sayyaf Group, a radical Islamist organisation, in southern areas of Mindanao have added the proverbial ‘fuel to the fire’ and the continuing presence of U.S. military "advisers" on the ground guarantees further controversy.

All this in a country that remains religiously, ethnically, geographically and economically differentiated—with a relatively weak central state—and where poverty and corruption are rife.

Little wonder, then, that much political intriguing and second-guessing regarding the May 10, 2010 elections have already taken place.

Alberto Lim, executive director of the Makati Business Club, which makes up the country’s largest corporations and a staunch critic of the current administration, sat down with IPS recently to discuss some of the upcoming election’s issues, including those related to current president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III, the man who is presently the favourite to replace her.

IPS: How do you see the lead-up to next year’s elections? Do you suppose that the most likely scenario, still, is that the elections will be held in May and then Arroyo will stand down at the end of her term in 2010?

ALBERTO LIM: Well, that’s the one we’re hoping for, especially now that it seems Noynoy represents a good future for us if he wins. It could be the best of all [possible] outcomes.

IPS: Is Noynoy’s popularity best explained by the life, and even the death in August, of his mother, former President Corazon Aquino, boosting his own popularity? Is that a major factor in how he is perceived by the electorate?

AL: Yes, I think that explains half of his popularity. People who say they will vote for him, half of them say that it’s because of his mother and father [Benigno Aquino, Jr., assassinated in 1983 and the symbolic head of those opposing Marcos], although more his mother.

The other half, or maybe a third, would say it’s because of his integrity, his honesty. He has no record of corruption. He’s still a very simple guy, he wears simple clothes and isn’t flashy. He has no bank account. So, that explains his popularity. He does not have a brilliant record as a legislator, [with] no major laws passed, no experience as an executive. Basically, it’s his honesty, and that’s what we need: good governance.

IPS: And that’s a major shift from the perception of President Arroyo.

AL: [It’s a] 180-degree shift. And I think that’s what we need. I like this quote of Warren Buffet. He says, ‘when I hire somebody, an executive, I look for three things: integrity, intelligence, and energy. Without the first, the other two will kill you.’ So, that’s what we’ve been lacking, integrity. We have enough laws. We don’t need more laws; we need to implement the laws. That’s where we’ve been very weak.

Noynoy has inherited the good-governance legacy of his parents. I guess that’s where his strong suit is, his political experience more than his executive experience. He can let people around him run the government.

IPS: President Arroyo appears to be particularly concerned about what will happen to her and her immediate circle—in terms of being chased after in the courts—following the elections. Does this explain why she may want to remain as president beyond her elected term?

AL: That’s definitely the main concern. It’s the reason why she is even considering running for Congress, although I don’t know how that will help her to prevent prosecution for alleged crimes.

It’s the reason why she would even contemplate martial law. We don’t need martial law. But that’s not to say that it would be the main agenda for Noynoy. I mean, running after her is only doing what is just. It won’t necessarily be the first priority for his government, which is to lift the people from poverty, create jobs, make us more competitive by attending to education and people’s health.

IPS: But it is still likely to happen?

AL: I hope it happens. But it depends, as we don’t have a very good track record of running after past regimes, unlike the Koreans or the Taiwanese. The justice system has been weak, so that will take a bit of time before we turn things around. But hopefully, it happens.

IPS: Do you put any credence in the idea that martial law or a state of emergency is a possibility?

AL: Well, earlier in the year we did, as one of the several scenarios that would help the president stay in power. But as elections draw nearer, while that possibility is still there, it seems less likely now, because the people’s minds are so geared towards the election. Also, during the funeral of Mrs Aquino, the behaviour of the military then was such that they would not condone extra-constitutional behaviour.

IPS: What were the signs that led you to think that?

AL: Well, maybe it’s the expectation that they would be very much in the background. But they came out very visible, and as you know, the former president, Aquino, was critical of the [current] government. If they were loyal to the administration, they wouldn’t have been so visible in giving honour to the past president. But they were there; they were out in force.

When her body was brought to the wake the honour guard, with all the services represented, stood in the rain. It was a clear signal that the military would not go for, at least, this present leadership. Of course, the scenarios earlier in the year were that they would change the [military] leadership and appoint someone loyal [to the President]. That was part of the scenario: that the class of 1978 would be taking over. But it looks less likely.

IPS: What could be a pretext for declaring a state of emergency or martial law that the Arroyo administration could use?

AL: Well, if the ‘war on terror’ was brought to Manila with bombings—that’s one possible way of bringing about the need for martial law.

IPS: There is also a rumour regarding the potential assassination of Noynoy Aquino as a pretext to crack down on the outcry, which would undoubtedly follow. The theory goes that this would pave the way for martial law to be implemented so as to cancel or postpone the elections, thereby allowing Arroyo to maintain power or boost the likelihood of a more favourable result for her. Have you heard this rumour?

AL: Well, that’s a possibility. I haven’t heard that but there has been concern about his safety. That could backfire, though, because he’s the leading candidate. More than half the country would vote for him if the elections were held today. That would bring a 1983 scenario again. People would come out on the streets and there would be a lot of unrest.

IPS: It would also be looked upon disapprovingly by the international community, particularly the United States.

AL: Yes. It would be a repeat of what happened with his father. That doesn’t necessarily mean that’s a winning strategy [for those who would benefit from the assassination of Noynoy], because whoever emerges as the symbol of the opposition would benefit from that. It could, like I say, backfire. That’s one possibility but that would not go down well, even within the military.

(FIN/2009)