IRAQ:
Chance of a Breakthrough With the Kurds?
Analysis by Mohammed A. Salih
WASHINGTON, Aug 5 (IPS) - A recent meeting between Iraq’s Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Kurdish
President Massoud Barzani appears to be a crucial step in lowering tensions in
the country, but it has also prompted questions as to whether the two leaders
can put an end to their differences.
The meeting came as the fever of presidential and parliamentary elections in
Kurdistan subsided and at a time that the U.S. is actively pressuring both
sides to return to the negotiation table.
It was the first time in a year that the two leaders held direct talks in the
northern resort town of Dukan - with the apparent mediation of Iraq’s
President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd.
While the two leaders exchanged positive words in a largely conciliatory
gesture and decided to continue high-level contacts, sceptics were hoping
these would be genuine moves toward an eventual resolution of a range of
disputes between the two sides.
"I hope this visit by PM Maliki to Kurdistan region will not be only an election
propaganda and that the visit will lead to a resolution of differences between
[Kurdistan] regional government and the central government," Dhafer al-Ani,
the head of Tawafuq bloc - the largest Sunni Arab group in Iraqi Parliament -
said in a statement.
In fact, with Iraq’s parliamentary elections scheduled for January, some may
see this as an attempt by Maliki to regain Kurds’ favour in order to retain his
office after elections.
While the recent meeting marks a rapprochement between the two sides,
there is no indication that it would necessarily lead to a resolution of
differences. Both leaders will risk their popularity and possibly political
careers if they would want to make significant compromises - without which
a deal does not seem achievable.
A few recent developments appear to have prompted the meeting between
Kurdish leaders and Maliki.
During his visit to Washington last month, U.S. President Barack Obama urged
Maliki to show more flexibility toward other Iraqi groups in order to achieve
national reconciliation. Three administration heavy weights - including Vice
President Joe Biden, Defence Secretary Robert Gates and Chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen - travelled to Iraq in July to drive the
point home to Maliki and Kurdish leaders that Washington was keen to see
both sides resume dialogue.
But all had to wait until Kurdish parliamentary and presidential elections
ended.
Nationalistic rhetoric had surged during the campaign, especially as Barzani
and Talabani’s joint ruling coalition was trying to gain more votes by
highlighting "threats" facing Kurds from others. On more than one occasion,
Barzani said he would make no compromise with Baghdad over Kurdish
demands.
With a strong opposition born out of those elections, the question for many
was whether Kurdish policy vis-à-vis Baghdad would undergo any significant
changes. During recent Kurdish elections the joint ruling coalition of Barzani
and Talabani won only around 58 percent of votes, according to initial results
announced by the electoral commission of Iraq. The two other major
opposition groups have won around 37 percent of the vote in what was a
shock to the political establishment in Iraqi Kurdistan.
However, Barzani himself was re-elected as Kurdish president, drawing
nearly 70 percent of votes. But, opposition members have accused Barzani of
not handling Kurd-Baghdad politics very well.
Barzani’s meeting with Maliki before final election results are announced
indicates a willingness on the part of the Kurdish leader to keep the initiative
in dealing with Baghdad in his hands - while not involving the future diverse
parliament that much.
With the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq scheduled by the end of 2011,
many think Kurds do not have the advantage of time on their side. That
comes as the national government is becoming more powerful day-by-day,
at times at the expense of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
"KRG has to come to some sort of an agreement with Baghdad soon, because
it is not strong enough to combat Baghdad in the long run," Michael Gunter, a
professor of Political Science at Tennessee Tech University, told IPS.
"Who is going to look after Kurdish national interests in the long-run, and
after the U.S. leaves the country," said Gunter who has written on the Kurdish
situation for years.
Kurds have been the closest U.S. allies within the country since the invasion
of Iraq in 2003, and the U.S. military has at several times intervened to
prevent the breakout of violence between Kurdish and Iraqi army forces. The
latest instance was when Iraqi army troops were heading to a Kurdish town
called Makhmur, east of Mosul. As there was a serious chance of clashes, the
U.S. military managed to defuse the tensions and convince the Iraqi units not
to enter the town.
As tensions between the Kurds on one side, and the central government
and Iraqi Arabs on the other side have increased in recent months, some in
Washington and Baghdad have accused Kurds of adopting a maximalist and
uncompromising approach. But many inside Kurdistan fiercely oppose any
such notion.
Shaqfiq Qazzaz - a veteran of Kurdish politics - rejects any branding of
Kurdish positions as "extravagant and extreme."
"Whenever Iraq is in trouble, it is Kurds who are asked to accommodate and
compromise… They set redlines, but forget that Kurds have redlines of their
own as well," Qazzaz, who was a minister in KRG until a few years ago, told
IPS in a phone interview from Irbil, Iraq. "There is a certain extent to which
Kurdish leaders can make compromise, otherwise they will be on the losing
side and their people will not accept that."
KRG’s differences with the Baghdad government include the borders of
Kurdistan, oil and gas exploration rights, the power of the KRG versus
Baghdad, and the status of the Kurdish forces known as Peshmarga. At the
heart of the disputes is the chronic issue of Kirkuk that has complicated
Kurdish relations with almost all governments in Iraq since the country was
established in 1920s.
(END/2009)
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