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INDIA/PAKISTAN
Reduced Himalayan Snowfall Could Spark Water War
By Athar Parvaiz
SRINAGAR, Jan 18, 2010 (IPS) - The declining snow cover and receding glaciers in the Himalayan state of Jammu
and Kashmir could trigger renewed hostilities between India and Pakistan,
neighbouring states in the South Asian region that are at odds on a host of
issues, experts warn.
The two countries share the Indus River, one of the longest rivers in the
world. The river rises in southwestern Tibet and flows northwest through the
Himalayas. It crosses into the disputed Kashmir region, meandering to
the Indian and Pakistani administered areas of the territory.
Pakistan and India have long been embroiled in a territorial dispute over
Kashmir, but have so far managed to uphold a World Bank-mediated Indus
Water Treaty (IWT) that provides mechanisms for resolving disputes over
water sharing. Any drastic reduction in the availability of water in the region
has the potential of causing a war between the hostile south Asian
neighbors, experts said.
Kashmir is located in the northwest region of the Indian subcontinent. It
covers the Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir and the Pakistani-
administered northern areas and "Azad" Kashmir province. Aksai Chin and
Trans-Karakoram Tract are occupied by China.
Based on scientific findings released last December, the snow cover in Jammu
and Kashmir is declining while temperature is rising. The findings were the
results of a study conducted by senior scientist H. S. Negi and his colleagues,
and were published in the ‘Journal of Earth System Sciences’, a bimonthly
science publication in India.
The findings were based on 20 years worth of climatic condition data,
covering the periods 1988-89 to 2007-08, and were undertaken during the
winter periods between November and April of 2004–05, 2005–06 and 2006–
07, using multi-temporal sensor data.
"Snow cover monitoring was carried out to evaluate the region-wise
accumulation and ablation pattern of snow cover in the Pir Panjal and
Shamshawari ranges of Kashmir valley," said Negi. "The study shows
reduction in the areal extent of seasonal snow cover and rising trend of
maximum temperature in three winters for the entire Kashmir valley."
Negi and his team found that the total snowfall in the winter of 2004-05 was
1,082 centimetres across the valley, which declined to 968 centimetres
during the period 2005-06 and reduced further to 961 centimetres between
2006 and 2007.
"February, the second month of maximum snowfall, showed rapid fluctuation,
with 585 centimetres in 2004-05 compared to 207 centimetres in 2005-06
and 221 centimetres in 2006-07," said the scientists, adding that the
temperatures remained more than zero degree Celsius during winters, except
for January-February 2004-05 and January 2006 against a normal sub-zero
temperature.
Unlike the Eastern Himalayan rivers such as the Brahmaputra, which are
mainly rain-fed, most of the water that goes to the Indus river comes from
snowmelt, which includes glacial melt. Global warming-induced changes in
climate patterns have adversely affected, among others, snowmelt runoff
patterns.
"The Indus water system is the lifeline for Pakistan, as 75 to 80 percent of
water flows to Pakistan as melt from the Himalayan glaciers. This glacier melt
forms the backbone of irrigation network in Pakistan, with 90 percent of
agricultural land being fed by the vastly spread irrigation network in Pakistan,
one of the largest in the world," said Dr Irshad Muhammad Khan, executive
director of Global Change Impacts Studies Centre in Pakistan. Any disruption
of water flow would cause a grave impact on agriculture produce in Pakistan,
he said.
"Until now, the Indus Water Treaty has worked well, but the impact of climate
change would test the sanctity of this treaty," Dr Parvez Amir, a senior
economist, told IPS.
Under the treaty signed in 1960, the two countries also share five tributaries
of the Indus river, namely, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. The
agreement grants Pakistan exclusive rights over waters from the Indus and its
westward-flowing tributaries, the Jhelum and Chenab, while the Ravi, Beas
and Sutlej rivers were allocated for India’s use.
"I think it is not only the matter of Indus water treaty between India and
Pakistan but also the water-sharing treaties elsewhere in the world such as
those in the Middle East that also face a severe threat in the form of climate
change," said Dr Amir.
According to Prof. Mohammad Sultan, who teaches Geography at Kashmir
University, temperature in the region has shown disturbing trends over the
last few decades. "From 1950 to 1975, the temperature had shown a cooling
trend (0.2 below normal). But after 1975 there has been a warming trend (0.4
degree above normal), and it is continuing," he said.
He said precipitation in the lower parts of Kashmir has declined by 1.2
centimetres in lower altitudes and 8 cm in higher altitudes beginning in
1975. "This disturbance is bound to impact the accessibility to water in the
future," he said.
Transboundary water sharing between India and Pakistan will become an
"extremely difficult proposition as surface water would become a scarce
commodity with the depletion of water reserves up in the mountains," said
Prof Sultan.
(END)
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