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US-SYRIA: Diplomatic Thaw Just Penetrating the Surface
Analysis by Ellen Massey
WASHINGTON, Nov 5 (IPS) - Four months ago, the Barack Obama administration announced that it would
appoint an ambassador to Syria, ending a four-year freeze on diplomatic
relations between the two countries.
That announcement came as a part of a larger foreign policy rhetoric that
emphasised dialogue with both friend and foe. But what real impact has this
new approach had?
There have been measurable steps taken to unthaw a Syrian-U.S. relationship
that has been decidedly chilly since early 2005 and the assassination of
Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
Since the Obama administration moved into White House in January, there
have been six high-level meetings between Syrian officials and the executive
branch, including a visit to Washington by Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister
Fayssal Mekdad in September, the highest-ranking Syrian official to visit the
city in more than five years.
While the fact that the ambassador to Damascus is yet to be named might be
troubling at first glance, the still vacant post may be more a result of
bureaucratic haggling than anything else.
"The progress towards an ambassador is still on," said Joshua Landis, director
of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma and
author of the widely-read blog, Syria Comment.
Landis noted that Imad Moustapha, Syria's ambassador to the United States,
went to the State Department at the end of last week and communicated that
things were positive.
"Talking with the U.S. today is night and day between Bush and today," Landis
reported the ambassador as saying.
Yet despite the outward attempts at mutual rapprochement, deep
undercurrents threaten the progress of this fledgling relationship.
Michael Hudson, director of Georgetown University's Center for Contemporary
Arab Studies and an expert on the Syrian political scene, pointed to several
factors that might have stalled any new progress. Not least among these are
renewed allegations by the Iraqi government that Syria has at least indirectly
supported bombings and violence in Iraq, Hudson said.
Indeed, Syria's role in Iraq and allegations that its border serves as a refuge
for ex-Baathist fighters in Iraq has been a point of contention and one of
negotiation between the U.S. and Syria for a while, dating back to Secretary of
State Condoleeza Rice's 2007 meetings with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-
Moallem, which were strictly limited to Syria's role in the neighbouring
country.
Beyond Syria's influence in Iraq, Landis described deep-seeded "structural
problems" that hinder the U.S.-Syrian relationship. At the top of this list is
the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
The 1,200 square kilometre strip of land bordered by Syria, Israel, Lebanon
and Jordan is strategically important because of its location, but also because
it is a major water source in the arid region. Syria wants the territory back
and many analysts and international resolutions have called for Israel's
withdrawal from the region as a part of peace talks between the two
countries.
But Israel has balked at any such suggestion. "Netanyahu rejects this Syrian
requirement as a precondition, even though several previous Israeli prime
ministers, beginning with Rabin, did just that," Theodore Kattouf told the
Center for American Progress in an interview with its Middle East Progress
blog in mid-October.
Kattouf is a former ambassador to Syria and the current president and CEO of
AMIDEAST.
Landis added to this point, telling IPS that for Israel, "There's no pressure to
give up anything. I mean, why would Israel give up the Golan? For what? For
Syria, [in Israel's view] a two-bit country? No way."
However, Landis's description of the power balance between Israel and Syria
takes on new meaning when tempered by his acknowledgement that the
United States has very little leverage in Syria.
"Syria's not going to do anything for America. Why? Because Syria has come to
the conclusion that President Obama cannot reverse sanctions," he said. "The
one short-term thing that Syria wants, short of the Golan Heights, is to have
sanctions reversed."
The U.S. sanctions against Syria are the purview of Congress and were
renewed earlier this fall with the support of the Obama administration. And
indeed there is little domestic or international support for ending the
sanctions regime, especially as Syria continues to facilitate the movement of
arms, equipment and money to Hizbollah and Hamas.
The lack of U.S. influence in Syria has been further compounded by Syria's
growing alliances in the Middle East. President Bashar Al-Assad's regime has
refused to pull back from the country's longtime relationship with Iran, even
while there has been a softening of rhetoric between Syria and anti-Iran
governments like the United States and Saudi Arabia.
Yet the rapprochement between Syria and Saudi Arabia has proceeded with
King Abdullah's first visit to Damascus as head of state taking place last
month.
Ties between Syria and Turkey have also been improving this year, ending
years of mistrust between the neighbouring states that was based largely on
Turkey's allegations that Syria was supporting the separatist Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK). The new relationship includes economic and military
cooperation measures.
With Syria pulling out of its regional isolation, "There may be a certain kind of
irritation here in Washington that Syrians are developing and cultivating
regional and local allies and thus gaining a certain leverage that they might
not have had before," Hudson told IPS.
As the U.S. relationship with Syria continues to evolve, it seems that the
structural problems between Damascus and Washington have larger
implications for U.S. involvement in the Middle East. Syria sits at the epicentre
of United States interests and investment in the region, and previous U.S.
policies of seeking to change Syria's behaviour through isolation have
effectively failed.
Yet as new ways forward are pursued, Landis points out that the U.S.
Congress's often unconditional support of Israel has left little negotiating
room for the Obama State Department. "That means whatever it means for
Lebanon and Iraq and other things," Landis said. "All these issues aren't going
to be resolved, and they're going to continue to grind away."
Some plans have been put forward that attempt progress in the U.S-Syrian
relationship while skirting the bulk of the issues.
Kattouf suggested in his interview with Middle East Progress that the U.S. not
stand in the way of Syria's anticipated application to the World Trade
Organisation, support the EU's association agreement should Syria decide to
sign it, and provide additional resources for Syria to sustain the more than
one million refugees that have sought haven there.
Similarly, the International Crisis Group in a February report suggested a
recalibration of sanctions on the basis of clear policy objectives.
However, these steps are incremental along the path toward a real
relationship between the United States and Syria, and it remains to be seen if,
or how, the Obama administration will pursue that goal.
(END/2009)
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