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AFGHANISTAN: NATO Members in Waiting Mode
Analysis by Pavol Stracansky
BRATISLAVA, Oct 25 (IPS) - Corruption, doubts over Afghan leadership, and faltering public support have
emerged as the main stumbling blocks to a demand for more NATO troops in
Afghanistan.
North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) secretary-general Anders Fogh
Rasmussen had wanted NATO defence ministers meeting in Bratislava
Thursday and Friday this week to agree to raise troop numbers in
Afghanistan. The U.S. and NATO troops commander in Afghanistan, Gen.
Stanley McChrystal, has asked for 40,000 more troops.
Rasmussen made energetic appeals to NATO states to endorse the general's
plan, which also calls for a shift in strategy to do more to protect the Afghan
population, and to train local forces and police.
At the end of the meeting Rasmussen said defence ministers had given their
broad support for the McChrystal report. But it was clear that there would be
no commitment from most European countries to send more troops while
doubts remain over Afghan President Hamid Karzai's regime.
"The plan for NATO is to get the central government to take control of the
country and get institutions up and functioning and then leave," Tomas
Valasek, director of foreign policy and defence at the Centre for European
Reform in London told IPS.
"But the problem is that the government for whom the western powers are
doing all this is increasingly seen by ordinary Afghans as more and more
incompetent, and Karzai is bringing in former warlords into his government
while people complain of widespread corruption.
"It makes no difference how many troops NATO sends in - it could send in
ten soldiers for every Afghan - if the government does not have the backing
of the people. As soon as the troops left it would all fall apart."
There are 65,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan and a further 39,000 from allied
states. More than 1,000 allied troops have been killed in Afghanistan since
the start of military operations in 2001.
Gen McChrystal's report calls for priority for protecting Afghan civilians ahead
of killing insurgents. The United Nations has reported 1,013 civilian deaths in
the first six months of 2009, a rise from 818 over the corresponding period
last year. The UN says NATO troops or Afghan forces were responsible for
30.5 percent of the deaths.
The White House has been mulling over Gen McChrystal's request since late
August, and experts say the call for more troops at a time of rising allied
casualties has exposed divisions among NATO member states.
Public opinion in much of Europe is now against the war. Experts say it is
hard for governments to persuade voters to support sending more troops to
help a regime in Kabul which is increasingly seen as corrupt. The alleged
fraud in recent presidential elections and accusations that Karzai's
government has turned a blind eye to drug-running will have done little to
change that view.
While the UK has pledged more soldiers, France has said it will not send any
more troops. Senior figures at the Bratislava conference told IPS that they
believe German officials have privately told U.S. leaders they will not send any
more soldiers either.
German defence minister Franz Josef Jung said at the Bratislava meeting that
there would definitely be no increase in German troop levels until after a
planned NATO conference on Afghanistan expected early next year.
Officials from the Netherlands and Denmark said they would not send more
troops until a legitimate government is formed in Afghanistan after a re-run
presidential election next month.
Some analysts say it is uncertain that any agreement from European allies on
raising troop commitments will be reached. "It needs a consensus, and that
will not happen on this issue with so many members," Ivo Samson, defence
analyst with the group Slovak Foreign Policy told IPS.
Denmark's defence minister Soeren Gade told media at the Bratislava meeting
that if and when NATO allies send more troops, they are likely to make it
contingent on the Afghan leadership making clear commitments to dealing
with problems in the country. "We have to make sure the new government in
Afghanistan is committed to its job before we send any more troops to
Afghanistan," he said.
Analysts say NATO is now facing a crucial decision on Afghanistan after the
re-run presidential elections early next month.
Valasek told IPS: "The White House is carrying out a review of its Afghanistan
strategy, and other NATO members are waiting to see what the U.S., the
largest troop contributor in Afghanistan, is planning to do. Until then they
cannot really do anything." (END/2009)
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