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POLITICS: Saudi Arabia May Not Follow Obama’s Plan
Analysis by Helena Cobban*
WASHINGTON, Aug 11 (IPS) - Pro-Israeli lobbyists here won the support of 77 senators (out of 100) for a
letter sent to President Barack Obama that urged him to "press Arab leaders" to
consider making dramatic, upfront peace overtures to Israel.
But one key Arab state, Saudi Arabia, has already clearly communicated its
refusal to make any such gestures at this time.
On Jul. 31, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal told journalists in
Washington that, "Confidence-building measures will… not bring peace.
What is required is a comprehensive approach that defines the final outcome
at the outset and launches into negotiations over final status issues."
Saudi Arabia is one of the most influential players in Arab-Israeli
peacemaking. But given its pivotal position in international energy markets -
and the fact that it has no need of U.S. financial aid - it is almost immune to
American pressure.
In their role as "Guardians" of two of Islam’s three holiest cities - Mecca and
Medina - Saudi Arabia’s monarchs have always had a strong concern for the
welfare of the Muslim institutions in Islam’s third holy city, Jerusalem - and a
desire to see a fair and durable final peace between Israelis and Palestinians.
However, like the vast majority of other Arabs, Saudi Arabia’s rulers are
currently very wary of getting drawn into any diplomatic process that aims
not at securing the final peace treaties between Israel and its Arab neighbours
but rather at further, possibly lengthy, "interim" moves.
From the Arab perspective, that focus on endless "interim" steps was what
dominated the eight years of former U.S. President Bill Clinton’s Arab-Israeli
diplomacy - and meanwhile, Israel continued to implant scores of thousands
of additional settlers into East Jerusalem and the rest of the West Bank
throughout those years.
Israel’s implantation of additional settlers into the West Bank continued under
former U.S. President George W. Bush. Now, there are 500,000 settlers in the
West Bank - including more than 200,000 in East Jerusalem alone.
Their presence considerably complicates the quest for a fair and sustainable
peace. It is also, under international law, quite illegal. The Fourth Geneva
Convention of 1949 forbids any government running a military occupation of
land not its own from implanting its own civilians into the occupied area.
The Saudis argue that Israel deserves no special "rewards" for stopping its
continued perpetration of this illegal act. They say that the U.S., which gives
substantial financial and military aid to Israel, should work to ensure that this
stoppage occurs forthwith - and that later, in the context of the final peace
accord, the vast majority of the illegally implanted settlers should return to
Israel along with Israel’s occupation army.
Many Americans, "have said if the Arabs do something nice for Israel this will
somehow get you something in terms of an Israeli gesture - progress towards
peace between Israelis and Palestinians," noted Chas W. Freeman, a
distinguished former U.S. diplomat who was ambassador to Saudi Arabia
(1989-92) and has a deep knowledge of the kingdom’s affairs.
"In fact absolutely none of the gestures that have been made, including the
very important one of the Arab League’s Beirut Declaration of 2002 - the so-
called Arab Peace Initiative - has resulted in any positive response from the
Israelis. They have been content to pocket whatever has been offered and to
do nothing in return."
Freeman observed that, "There is no predisposition whatsoever - in fact a lot
of predisposition to the contrary - on the Arab side to pay for what Israel, in
its own interest, ought to do."
The strength of the Saudis’ opposition to additional interim-focused,
confidence-building measures in the Israeli-Arab arena - like the kingdom’s
views on several other issues, including Iran - seem not to have been well
understood by all members of the Obama administration.
In April, Dennis Ross, an administration official with a shifting and fuzzy - but
apparently high-level - portfolio, visited the kingdom and attempted to
lecture King Abdullah ibn Abdul-Aziz about the need to confront "the Iranian
threat." But New York Times columnist Roger Cohen has written that when
Abdullah got a word in edgeways and asked some reasonable questions
about Washington’s policy, Ross was unable to answer and appeared "a little
flustered."
Ross was the man who throughout Clinton’s presidency had been in charge
of all Israeli-Arab peace negotiations, and presumably dealt closely with the
Saudis and other Arabs. Observers noted that it therefore seemed strange
that he did not know how to deal effectively with the man who, before he
became king in 2005, had already been the power behind the Saudi throne
for more than a decade.
In early June - the day before the much-publicised address Obama made to
the Muslim world from Cairo - Obama made a quick visit to Saudi Arabia and
had his first meeting with Abdullah. There are some indications that during
that meeting he may have asked Abdullah to undertake some confidence-
building steps towards Israel in return for an Israeli halt on settlement-
building.
In the Cairo speech, Obama said, "the Arab states must recognise that the
Arab Peace Initiative was an important beginning, but not the end of their
responsibilities." He called on the Arab states to act "to help the Palestinian
people develop the institutions that will sustain their state, [and] to recognise
Israel’s legitimacy."
The clear implication was that he was asking the Arab states to undertake
these actions now, or in return for an Israeli settlement-building halt, rather
than as an eventual reward after the conclusion of final peace treaties.
On Jul. 22, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia’s tiny neighbour and ally Bahrain
published an opinion piece in the Washington Post in which he called on his
fellow Arabs to start sending help to Palestinian institutions and to reach out
to the Israeli public - though notably not, at this point, to the Israeli
government.
Analysts noted that that initiative from Bahrain was most likely encouraged by
the Saudi government - or at least, was cleared with Riyadh.
On Jul. 27, Obama’s senior peace envoy George Mitchell was in Cairo. He told
reporters that Washington was eager to secure a "comprehensive" peace
between Israel and its Arab neighbours. He also asked all the countries in the
region to set the "context" for starting these negotiations.
"By comprehensive I mean peace between Israel and Palestinians, between
Israel and Syria, between Israel and Lebanon and the full normalisation of
relations between Israel and the countries of the region," he said.
He said, "We’re not asking anyone to achieve full normalisation at this time.
We recognise that will come further down the road in this process." But he
added that Washington did want to see "meaningful steps by individual
countries."
However, the statements the Saudi foreign minister made in late July seemed
like a clear indication that Saudi Arabia would not be taking such steps in the
near future.
Three days later Kuwait’s ruler, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah, met with
Obama in the White House. He, like the Saudis, spelled out that normalisation
with Israel would come about after the conclusion of the final peace, rather
than as a lead-up to it.
The Saudis meanwhile seem to have given serious thought to how, exactly,
they might help the still-struggling Palestinian institutions in the occupied
territories.
The biggest problem there has been the stark conflict between the U.S.-
based Fateh party, which administers Palestinian institutions in some portions
of the Israeli-occupied West Bank and the Islamist Hamas party, which
governs in Israeli-besieged Gaza.
Back in Feb. 2007, King Abdullah brokered a brief reconciliation between
Fateh and Hamas. But the Bush Administration in Washington conspired with
some Fateh strongmen to break the terms of that Saudi-brokered deal, which
then fell apart.
Now, as Fateh winds up its important Sixth General Conference in Bethlehem,
King Abdullah has once again issued a clear call for unity among the
Palestinians.
As a few thousand pious Muslims now prepare to leave both Gaza and the
West Bank to travel to Saudi Arabia for the Hajj pilgrimage, there is some
expectation their Saudi hosts may be able to do some good reconciliation
work while they are there.
*Helena Cobban is a veteran Middle East analyst and author. She blogs at
www.JustWorldNews.org
(END/2009)
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