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IRAN: Nuclear Capability After 2013, Says U.S. Intelligence
By Daniel Luban
WASHINGTON, Aug 7 (IPS) - Iran is unlikely to be able to produce the highly enriched uranium (HEU) necessary for
a nuclear weapon until at least 2013, according to a U.S. government
intelligence estimate made public Thursday.
The estimate, which sets a notably later date for Iran’s acquisition of a
nuclear capability than other claims that have recently been circulated in the
media, was prepared by the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence
and Research (INR). Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Dennis Blair
submitted it in written testimony to the Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence in February.
The publication of the estimate comes at a particularly sensitive time in
Washington, as the U.S. debates how best to proceed in dealing with Iran in
the wake of June’s disputed election and the Iranian government’s
subsequent crackdown on protesters.
Many Iran analysts have called for the U.S. to do nothing for the time being
while the political situation within Iran develops - holding off on its planned
engagement with Tehran while at the same time avoiding confrontational
measures such as the imposition of additional sanctions.
But hawks in the U.S. and Israel have argued that there is no time to spare in
dealing with the Iranian nuclear programme, and that the U.S. should quickly
move to sanctions targeting Iran’s refined petroleum imports if engagement
does not bear fruit by the end of September.
There has also been a great deal of speculation about whether Israel would
undertake a unilateral military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities if it is not
satisfied with the progress of negotiations - Israeli leaders have refused to
rule out the possibility.
The INR estimate, which comes on the heels of other estimates suggesting
that Iran is years away from a nuclear capability, may serve to defuse the
crisis atmosphere that has come to characterise discussion of the issue in
Washington and Jerusalem, and bolster those calling for patience in dealing
with Tehran.
Blair’s testimony to the Senate, in which the estimate appeared, was released
in response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request by Steven
Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), and published by
Aftergood on the FAS website Thursday.
The INR estimate stresses that it is not taking a position on whether Iran will
make a "political decision" to produce highly enriched uranium (HEU) for a
nuclear weapon, but rather on when Iran would have the "functional ability" to
produce HEU should it choose to do so.
Iran has denied that it intends to produce a nuclear weapon, insisting that its
nuclear programme is for civilian use only.
Blair’s testimony to the Senate states that although Iran has "made significant
progress since 2007 in installing and operating centrifuges, INR continues to
assess it is unlikely that Iran will have the technical capability to produce HEU
before 2013."
The testimony also states that "Iran probably would use military-run covert
facilities, rather than declared nuclear sites, to produce HEU."
According to Blair, the broader intelligence community has "no evidence that
Iran has yet made the decision to produce highly enriched uranium, and INR
assess that Iran is unlikely to make such a decision for at least as long as
international scrutiny and pressure persist."
The INR’s estimate is in line with other recent intelligence estimates
suggesting that Iran is years away from a deliverable weapon, if it chose to
pursue one.
Meir Dagan, chief of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, said in June that
Iran would be capable of launching a bomb by 2014.
But more alarmist estimates have frequently been circulated in the media,
providing grist for hawks who suggest that time is running out to prevent an
Iranian bomb.
On Monday, the Times of London reported that Iran "has perfected the
technology to create and detonate a nuclear warhead and is merely awaiting
the word from its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to produce its first
bomb."
Citing unnamed "Western intelligence sources," the Times claimed that Iran
"could feasibly make a bomb within a year of an order" from Khamenei.
The "one year" estimate - which is met with scepticism by most intelligence
analysts - was quickly picked up by hawks as proof that there is no time to
waste on engagement.
On Tuesday, former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton appeared on Fox
News, citing the Times report in suggesting that "pressure [is] building" on
Israel to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
Bolton warned that "we are so close to Iran actually getting a weapon that
these fine calibrations that we have got six months, or eight months, or 10
months, all you have to do is be wrong by one day" for the U.S. and Israeli
strategic calculus to change dramatically.
On Thursday, Israeli newspaper Haaretz suggested that the "one year"
estimate was leaked to the Times by Israeli military intelligence.
Citing the fact that the head of the Israeli Military Intelligence Research
Brigade used "almost identical terms to those of the Times" in a Tuesday
briefing, Haaretz argued that the "timing of the articles implies that someone
in Israel’s defence establishment wanted to deliver an explicit, public
declaration" to the media.
The INR report is not the first time that a U.S. intelligence estimate has
helped to frame the debate over Iran policy.
In 2007, the release of a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) concluding that
Iran had halted its nuclear weapons programme - as opposed to its civilian
nuclear programme - in 2003 was widely seen as critical in alleviating
political pressure to take a tougher line on Tehran.
In his February Senate testimony, Blair refused to comment on the status or
content of the upcoming NIE. The NIE is the consensus judgment of the all 16
U.S. intelligence agencies, and hence its findings are likely to be the subject
of even more heated discussion than the just-released INR estimate.
The release of the Blair’s testimony comes as Iran hawks in the U.S. are
exerting increasing political pressure on the Obama administration to ramp
up sanctions on Tehran.
Last week, the Forward reported that congressional leaders and hawkish
Jewish organisations are planning a concerted political and lobbying effort in
September to rally support for increased sanctions.
The primary bill under consideration, the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions
Act, would punish firms exporting refined petroleum products to Iran.
The Obama administration has suggested that Iran will have until the Sep. 30
meeting of the U.N. General Assembly to respond positively to Washington’s
engagement, at which point it will consider more punitive measures.
However, many Iran experts have suggested that Tehran is in no position to
negotiate at the moment, due to the political turmoil that followed the Jun.
12 re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which critics denounce as
fraudulent.
As a result, many have called for a "tactical pause" in the U.S. engagement
strategy, in the words of National Iranian American Council (NIAC) president
Trita Parsi.
The latest intelligence estimate may give the U.S. some political breathing
room to pursue such a pause.
(END/2009)
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