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MIDDLE EAST: GCC Countries Complicate US' Iran Plans
Analysis by Meena Janardhan
DUBAI, Apr 16, 2007 (IPS) - With members of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) urging dialogue rather than war with Iran over its nuclear
programme and reluctant to allow their territories to be used in any
attack, Washington's pressure tactics against Tehran appear to be
faltering.
This reluctance is seen as one factor in the Islamic Republic's defiant
announcement, last week, of an expansion of its uranium enrichment
programme to ‘industrial' levels which, the West fears, is a step away
from producing a nuclear bomb. Tehran has consistently denied a weapons
component to its nuclear programme.
On Monday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a televised
address from the city of Shiraz that Tehran ‘'will not retreat even one
iota to preserve its nuclear right''. This was clearly a response to the
United States' warning that further United Nations Security Council
sanctions would be brought to bear upon Iran.
But beyond sanctions it would be hard for the U.S. to contemplate military
action against Iran because of a lack of support from such GCC countries
as Qatar which played host to the U.S. Central Command during the invasion
of Iraq in 2003.
‘‘We will not participate by any means to harm Iran from Qatar,'' first
deputy premier and foreign minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabor
Al-Thani said as far back as on Mar. 15. ‘‘Let us hope to solve this
diplomatically and through peaceful means,'' said Sheikh Hamad, who has
since taken over as the premier.
Less than a fortnight later United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Sheikh
Khalifa bin Zayed Al-Nahyan used the run-up to the Arab League summit in
Riyadh to announce: ‘‘We have informed the Iranian brothers in a message
carried recently by the foreign minister that we are not party to its
conflict with the U.S. and will not allow our territories to be used for
any military, security or intelligence activities against it.''
That announcement was not without misgivings. Prof. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla of
the Emirates University, while appreciating the reconciliatory message to
Iran, said: ‘‘As a follow up statement we should also make it clear that
if we are attacked by Iran we will retaliate.''
Analysing the UAE and Qatar's statements, Abdulla told IPS that the ‘'GCC
countries are trying to do everything possible not to send wrong messages
to Tehran. They feel that they should not antagonise Iran at a time when
its role in the region seems to be gaining in strength''. The reference
was clearly to Iran's massive influence in the current politics of Iraq,
Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. The GCC comprises Bahrain,
Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
‘‘This is not just a message to the Iranians but also to the U.S. that
‘you are on your own','' Abdulla said. At another level, it is also a
signal to ‘‘the public at large across the Arab world,'' he added.
The issue of public opinion becomes relevant in the context of a Zogby
International survey of six Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia and the
UAE, where only six percent of respondents thought Iran a major threat to
their security. About 80 percent considered Israel and the U.S. as the two
biggest external threats.
The results of the poll announced in February suggested that fewer than 25
percent Arabs wanted Iran to be pressured to halt its nuclear programme.
In fact, about 60 percent said Tehran had the right to pursue the
programme even if it was aimed at developing nuclear weapons.
‘‘Iran is a huge neighbour and we have been living in the same
neighbourhood for centuries. We understand the positive and negative sides
of the relationship and we have adapted very well to all the changing
faces of Iran. We lived with Iran before and after the U.S. became a part
of the equation, and we will continue to do so with or without the U.S.,
irrespective of whether Iran is a nuclear or non-nuclear power,'' Abdulla
explained.
That understanding was evident when Sheikh Khalifa - whose country has a
running feud with Iran over the occupation of the Abu Mussa and Greater
and Lesser Tunbs islands - said: ‘‘The UAE is an independent and
sovereign state that rejects the use of its territories to attack any
country, especially if it is a neighbour and Muslim.''
One of the likely reasons facilitating Doha's soft approach could be the
ample opportunities that Qatari and Iranian leaders have had in recent
times to hold face-to-face discussions, especially on exploring the
possibility of forming a ‘grouping' of gas exporters, which gained
momentum during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to the Middle
East in February.
Discussions at a 16-member Gas Producing Countries' Forum in Doha during
the second week of April focused on deepening cooperation aimed at
creating a stable world market for the ‘fuel of the future'.
Among the other countries in the GCC bloc, Oman - which has the Straits
of Hormuz separating it from Iran - has consistently urged negotiations
and was the only country in the GCC bloc not to endorse the idea of the
Gulf as a weapons of mass destruction (WMD)-free zone, aimed at
‘denuclearising' Iran, during the GCC summit in Abu Dhabi in 2005.
Given the extent of Iran's influence in the Middle East, energy-rich Saudi
Arabia has resorted to engaging with Iran through dialogue to ensure that
the situation does not deteriorate any more than it already has.
Ever since the nuclear issue turned into international one, Ahmadinejad,
former Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani and chief nuclear negotiator
Ali Larijani have taken care to visit several GCC countries. Reciprocally,
several Arab leaders from the Gulf, including the emir of Qatar and the
UAE foreign minister, have visited Tehran in attempts de-escalate the
tension.
Iran has made several positive gestures which could be the basis for
dialogue in the future. At the Arab World Competitiveness Roundtable, held
in Doha on Apr. 9-10, Iran proposed a 10-point plan for establishing a
security and cooperation organisation in the Gulf region.
Due to the strategic importance of the Gulf and the need for building
trust, security, stability, and sustainable development, it is necessary
to devise a framework for security and economic cooperation in the region,
said Hassan Rowhani, director of the Centre for Strategic Studies of Iran's
Expediency Council.
Proposed in Iran's plan were: establishment of a Gulf Security and
Cooperation Organisation that would include the six GCC members, Iran and
Iraq; joint security arrangements and building trust between the regional
countries concerning nuclear issues, including monitoring and verification
of each others' nuclear programmes in a voluntary and non-intrusive
manner.
Also proposed were the establishment of a joint nuclear enrichment
consortium among the regional countries for producing nuclear fuel and
other peaceful uses of nuclear energy under the supervision of the
International Atomic Energy Agency and cooperation among regional
countries for the establishment of a Middle East free of WMD.
However, this ‘constructive' plan had ‘precondition' - withdrawal of
foreign military forces from the region. This implies that the U.S., the
sole security guarantor for the six-member bloc, should pull out and this
will never be acceptable to the GCC countries in the near future.
Yet, according to Abdulla of the Emirates University, ‘‘War is not the
answer, unless it is a short and surgical one, which no one, including the
U.S., can guarantee.''
(END)
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