OTHER IPS WIRE STORIES

• Rohingya Asylum Seekers Have Little to Cling To
• Refugees' Return Won't be a Warm Welcome
• Migrant Workers Yet to See Legal Win Become Reality
• Drought, not Dams, Behind Low River Levels - Experts
• As Water Levels Dip, Worries over Mekong River Rise

PREVIOUS IPS WIRE STORIES

• Villagers Build Lives Out of Unexploded Bombs
• Sand Dunes along Mekong Worry Activists
• Signs of Breakthrough Pick up, Scepticism Lingers
• NGOs Oppose Copper Project in Laos
• Anti-Opium Campaign Wins Converts from Overseas
• China's Plans to Dam Salween River Riles Critics
• Villagers Want Their Rivers - and Lives - Back
• For Exiles in Thailand, Burma is Both Near and Far
• Burmese Caught between Poverty in India, Oppression at Home
• Activists Cheer Pullout of French Firm from Lao Dam Project
• Electricity Changes Lives, But Has Cross-Border Impact

TOKYO — Through events like its hosting of a visit by the U.N. special envoy on Burma in March, Japan may well signal Tokyo's desire to expand its traditional role as Asia's key aid donor and become a more active player in regional diplomacy, say experts here.

"There is a growing expectancy on Japan from the Asian countries that have long benefited economically from Japanese aid, to do more," says Shigeu Tsumori, former Japanese ambassador to Burma and a professor of international relations at Toyo Eiwa University. "In reciprocation, Tokyo, too, has now made regional harmony a priority."

The Mar. 16-19 visit of the U.N. special envoy to Burma, Razali Ismail, is a case in point. Analysts see the visit of Razali, who was officially invited to attend a conference on reforming the United Nations, as a sign of Tokyo's eagerness to play a role in bringing a dialogue between the military junta and pro-democracy dissident Aung San Suu Kyi.

"Razali sees Japan having special influence in Myanmar. Its long assistance to Burma till May when aid was stopped, and a historical context to bilateral relations, gives a preference to play a larger role than the West," Kei Nemoto, an expert on South-east Asia at Gaiko University, says in an interview.

But Burma is also proving to be a tightrope for Japan's diplomacy as it figures out how to make its way between satisfying Western demands for democratic reform, echoed by activists in the region and beyond, and Asia's room for compromise.

Tokyo appears to be cultivating what some thinkers here call a more "inclusive" - and realistic -- approach to Burma different from the West, which has imposed sanctions on Rangoon. The U.S. government last year barred the entry of exports from Burma.

Analysts like Tsumori say a confrontational approach does not work, and that Japan must have a long-term and balanced policy that pursues both development - education and health included - and political progress.

"We must work on ways to combine the two development processes and aim at fostering a dialogue between the opposing political forces," Tsumori said at a seminar on Burma here in March.

Razali arrived in Tokyo after visiting Rangoon on Mar. 1-4, where he met with Burma's military government, opposition and ethnic leaders.

In Tokyo, Razali refrained from making public statements on Burma. He did however met with government officials - names were not released by the foreign ministry - and Burmese activists at Rengo, the country's largest trade union.

He was also believed to have briefed Tokyo - which used to be Burma's largest donor -- on the progress of the deadlock in Burma, where military rulers say they are pursuing a seven-step 'road map' to political change and where the process of writing a new constitution is expected to be revised this year.

"Razali's presence in Tokyo sends an important message to the world as he is the most important person in negotiating for peace in Burma," says Min Nyo, who heads the Japan- Burma Centre that represents exiled dissidents in Tokyo.

Razali's visit came just before a discussion on Burma here, centred around proposals for "reconciliation" by thinkers from East nations who propose an approach to Burma different from the big-stick one of the West and other critical Asian countries.

These proposals, completed in December 2003 by the Asia Dialogue Society, are called 'Quality of Partnership: Myanmar in South-east Asia and the World Community'.

The people behind this proposal include Tsumori, M Rajeratnam of the Information and Resource Centre in Singapore, former Thai deputy foreign minister Sukhumhand Paribatra. They suggest setting up a Council of National Reconciliation and Concord (CNRC) that would include members from the junta, the opposition and ethnic groups working for reconciliation within a timetable.

"The CNRC represents the basis of Japanese policy on Myanmar because it is a mechanism that represents compromise and inclusiveness," Nemoto points out.

The group's report was discussed at a Mar. 22 seminar organised by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Asian Club Foundation and the Myanmar Economic and Management Institute,

Other critics of Burma's military government may find the proposal too tame - the CNRC proposal would allow the junta to retain the dominant position in the council - but Tsumori, maintains that it is an "important breakthrough in ushering in reconciliation in Myanmar".

Experts here argue that the document represents Japan's brand of quiet diplomacy that gives Rangoon and the NLD's aspirations equal importance. Says Nemoto, "Japanese diplomacy lays priority on harmony. The CNRC depicts this context very well."

Min Nyo says that whatever the road to democracy is, a solution must include all parties - and asks Tokyo to avoid going too soft, too quickly, on Burma without concrete change.

Similarly, he adds: "We are not against Razali's negotiations with the junta because we know he and Japan are trying to move things ahead. Our only fear is that nothing is going to come out in the end."

"We are not willing to believe in the negotiations by Razali or Japan unless freedom is ensured -- and that does not look possible," says Min Nyo.

In 2002, Tokyo gave 200 million U.S. dollars in grant aid to Burma. It resumed mostly grant aid in 1995. Japan gave 3 billion dollars last year for technical cooperation. It has still to decide to restore full official aid to Burma after taking the unusually strong decision, along with Western donors, to stop aid in June last year.

This came in the wake of the violent attack by thugs, believed linked to the military government, on Suu Kyi and her party on May 30.

Meantime, Tsumori said that a full resumption of aid is not going to happen yet. "It is going to be difficult to convince Japanese taxpayers to support official development assistance to Myanmar unless there is democracy and protection of human rights," explained Tsumori. (END/Copyright IPS)