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POLITICS-U.S.: Asian-American Voters Leaning Toward Kerry
By Jim Lobe
WASHINGTON, Sep 14 (IPS) - A plurality of the nearly three million Asian-American voters intends to vote for Sen. John Kerry in November, with his strongest support coming from Chinese- and Indian-Americans, according to a new national survey that found that a surprisingly large 20 percent of the entire bloc remain undecided.
The survey, sponsored by New California Media (NCM) and carried out in August by several national polling firms, found that Vietnamese- and Filipino-American voters are the most supportive of Pres. George W. Bush and of the Republican Party as a whole.
Overall, Kerry leads Bush among Asian Americans by 43-36 percent, a significant gap in favour of the Democrats, but a good deal smaller than the 14 percent margin of the 2000 presidential race. In that election, former Vice President Al Gore won 55 percent of the Asian-American vote to Bush's 41 percent and Ralph Nader's three percent.
While Asian-American voters are disproportionately concentrated in California, where Kerry currently leads by a large margin, they could play decisive roles in a number of so-called "battleground states" where the candidates are so close that the race could still go either way.
In Florida, for example, there are an estimated 86,000 Asian-American voters - many, many times more than the mere 500 voters who gave Bush victory there four years ago. There are 65,000 voters in the critical swing states of Michigan; 50,000 in Oregon; 47,000 in Pennsylvania; 34,000 in Arizona; nearly 30,000 in both Minnesota and Nevada; and around 20,000 in Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee.
"The nearly three million registered Asian/Pacific Islander voters, who remain vastly more undecided that the national average, may be more pivotal than in years past in what is projected to be a close election," said Sandy Close, NCM's executive director.. "With this in mind, the Asian voter cannot be ignored."
Along with Arab Americans, Asian American voters are perhaps the most bipartisan of all U.S. citizens of colour. Latino Americans, with the exception of Cuban-American voters, have traditionally identified more closely with Democrats, and Kerry currently holds an almost two-to-one advantage over Bush among that bloc.
African-American voters are identified even more closely with the Democratic Party. Kerry is expected to receive between 80 and 90 percent of the black vote in November.
Outside of California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington state, and New York City, the Asian-American vote has generally been considered proportionately too small for national politicians to take extra care and expense to cultivate. But the Asian-American population is growing fast. The number of registered Asian-American voters has increased by almost 50 percent in just four years.
Chinese-Americans represent the largest block, with about 26 percent of the Asian-American vote. They are followed by Asian Indian Americans (20 percent), Filipinos (19 percent), Vietnamese and Koreans (11 percent each), Japanese (eight percent); Pacific Islander (three percent) and Hmong (two percent), who hail from Laos.
In order to ensure broad participation in the poll, interviews of the 1,004 respondents were conducted in English or in one of eight Asian languages, including Mandarin, Cantonese, Japanese, Tagalog, Hmong, Hindi, Vietnamese, and Korean. Of the total, 59 percent of respondents chose to have the interview in a language other than English.
The sample was broadly representative of the Asian voting-age population as a whole - some 28 percent of respondents had an income of more than 75,000 dollars, and 57 percent had pursued their education through a four-year college or beyond (compared to 33 percent for the general U.S. population). As a group, Asian Americans are among the most highly educated and well compensated of all ethnic groups in the U.S.
Kerry was most favoured over Bush by Hmong respondents (65-15 percent), followed by Chinese Americans (58-23 percent); Asian Indian Americans (53-14 percent); and Japanese Americans (42-38 percent).
Bush, on the other hand, was most favoured over Kerry by Vietnamese (71-11 percent), Filipinos (56-30 percent); Koreans (41-38 percent) and Pacific Islanders (40-37 percent).
By far the largest group of undecideds were Asian Indians (30 percent).
Kerry was found to be much more popular overall among younger Asian-American voters (18-38 years old) who broke almost two-to-one for Kerry (51-27 percent). Kerry was also more heavily favoured by college graduates (46-34 percent), as opposed to those with high school educations or less (35-43 percent).
Forty percent of all respondents said their impression of Bush overall was negative, compared to only 26 percent whose impression of Kerry was negative.
The Democratic Party as a whole was also seen more positively by Asian Americans (63 percent), compared to the Republican Party (48 percent).
Despite the large number of undecided voters within the Asian-American community and the relative absence of major Asia-related issues in the campaign to date, almost two-thirds believe the November election is likely to be the most important election of their lifetime.
Forty-seven percent of respondents identified "jobs and the economy" as the most important issue for the next president to deal with, while 22 percent cited the Iraq war and terrorism, followed by lesser figures for education and health care.
On specific issues, 35 percent said outsourcing jobs to Asia was a "good policy", compared to 46 percent who said it was "bad". As for Iraq, a majority of 51 percent said it was the wrong policy to go to war there, while 31 percent said it was the right policy.
On social issues, Asians were particularly conservative. More than two-thirds said they opposed allowing same-sex or gay couples to legally marry, although the margin was much closer among younger respondents.
On immigration, however, Asian Americans were more liberal, with 51 percent supporting legalising undocumented immigrants who live, work and pay taxes in the U.S.. Thirty-five percent opposed the idea.
As to their news sources, two-thirds of Asian Americans said they get most of their information about politics from U.S. mainstream media, while 21 percent identified foreign-language media, including community newspapers, as their main source of political news, including campaign coverage.
Given the large numbers of undecideds among Asian Americans and their heavy reliance on foreign-language media, Close said the failure of both presidential candidates to give them more attention, including interviews and advertising, is especially surprising.
(END/2004)
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